Tuesday, 12 May 2015

Early/Mid/Late Season Analysis added to Golf Predictor

New overview page showing player ranks (red) and average position in overall/early/mid/late season.
New season segment page showing more stats on selected overall/early/mid/late season form.
First snippet of new player page showing overall and early season stats for Rory McIlroy.
Second snippet of new player page showing the early season results (first page) analysed for Rory McIlroy.
GP video tutorial on this functionality

I am pleased to announce the addition of very useful time performance analysis to Golf Predictor. This new "Season Segment" functionality is available via two new options from the Form menu which allow you to see who performs better at certain parts of the calendar year. This analysis is based on the results for each golfer in the previous five/six seasons (see point 1 below). This should be very helpful for your fantasy golf, DFS golf or betting needs as it shows who tends to play well versus his peers at certain times of the year.

It is well known that some golfers perform better or worse at certain times of the year and this new functionality allows you to spot this easily. The analysis breaks the year into three segments: early (January to April), mid (May to August) and late (September to December) and produces a plethora of stats in each case. The ranking for each segment is based on the average finishing position for each golfer in that segment of the season. Stats are also produced for the overall period (i.e. all tournaments in the entire period, regardless of time of the year) for comparison purposes.

The first screenshot above shows the new overview page, which displays the ranking for each golfer in each of the season segments. These ranks are displayed in red for legibility and by sorting these columns, you can see at a glance who is (much) better at one time of the year than another. Hovering over the golfer's first name will show the number of tournaments played in each segment, as shown above for Sergio Garcia. The second screenshot shows the other new page available from the Form menu, where you can see the early/mid/late/overall season form in more detail for the field. Simply select the season segment of interest from the dropdown list to see the relevant stats. As usual, hovering over the golfer's first name shows more information, as shown above.

The final two screenshots above show snippets from the new Season Segment Data page for each golfer. Clicking on a golfer name in any of the two new menu options will display this new page. The third screenshot above shows two of the stats panels and the fourth screenshot shows the list of  early season tournaments analysed for Rory McIlroy. Again, you can get more information by hovering over a tournament name, as shown in the final screenshot above. The actual page shows the stats and tournament list for each segment (early/mid/late/overall season).

 Some notes on this new functionality:
  1. The time scale analysed to produce these statistics is the previous five seasons, plus any results from the current season. This means that at the start of a new GP season (year), the stats will encompass the tournaments from previous five years, while at the end of that GP season, they will encompass six years.
  2. As the current season progresses, the relevant season segment and overall stats will be automatically updated after the results for each tournament is entered into the system.
  3. The start date is used to determine whether a tournament is early, mid or late season. Some tournaments start and finish in different months. When this straddles April-May or August-September, the start date will determine which season segment the tournament falls into.
  4. Only golfers who have played at least 45 tournaments in the above period will be analysed. This equates to an average of 9 events a year (start of current season) or 7.5 events a year at the end of the current season. This will ensure there are enough results to work with for each golfer and reduce the processing overhead. Currently there are almost 500 golfers in the system that meet this criterion.
  5. If a golfer has not played any events in a particular season segment, he will be assigned a default average of 250 for that segment and "n/a" will be displayed on the two new season segment menu pages. This is to facilitate sorting on the average column.
  6. In most cases, the number of tournaments played by a golfer in the late season segment will be (considerably) less than the other two segments. This is because this time of year includes "silly season" and there are not many big tournaments on either major tour.
  7. The Season Segment Data page is very similar to the existing Golfer page, except for the (obvious!) fact that a different set of tournaments are analysed to produce the stats.
  8. A colour code table is available above the analysed tournaments lists on the Season Segment Data page, as shown in the final screenshot above. 
  9. There are a wealth of interesting stats now easily identifiable with this functionality. For example, Sergio Garcia is consistently good compared to his peers all year round while Dustin Johnson is relatively poor late in the year. Also, Hunter Mahan and Bubba Watson appear to rank better early in the year while Hideki Matsuyama and Bo van Pelt should definitely be avoided until mid season!
  10. You may have to refresh a page to see the new Form menu options.
These new stats also come with some new charts. In each case, the tournaments analysed are those that are in the period outlined in the first point above. The following charts have been added to the system:
  1. Bar chart showing the best golfers in the early GP season.
  2. Bar chart showing the best golfers in the mid GP season.
  3. Bar chart showing the best golfers in the late GP season.
  4. Bar chart showing the best golfers in all of the GP season.
  5. Pie chart of all the results for a golfer in the early GP season.
  6. Pie chart of all the results for a golfer in the mid GP season.
  7. Pie chart of all the results for a golfer in the late GP season.
  8. Pie chart of all the results for a golfer in all of the GP season.
  9. Stacked chart showing all the results for a golfer in early/mid/late/overall GP season.
These nine new charts brings the total number of charts on the site to 356.   

This new functionality is a terrific addition to the site and should greatly assist in picking golfers at certain times of the year. I trust you will find it useful and any feedback (via comments on this article or email) would be most welcome. The new season segment analysis functionality is available to all users, although only for the golfers you are permitted to view (all golfers for subscribers, those ranked 26-40 for the overall season for non-subscribers). In addition, non-subscribers will not be able to view all of the new charts listed above. Therefore, sign up today to get the most out of Golf Predictor, the premier European and US PGA Tour statistics site.

1 comment:

Golf Predictor Guru! said...

12 more charts added & a few other minor changes. See here for more info.