2011 - Week 46 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions and statistics for this week, the WGC - HSBC Champions (European/US PGA Tour) are now available on Golf Predictor. Just the one tournament this week and even though some of the bigger US stars aren't playing, there is still a strong field for the last WGC of the season in China.

2011 - Week 45 Winners

Sergio Garcia (ranked 1st by Golf Predictor) won the Andalucia Masters on the European PGA Tour. The 31 year old Spaniard won his second event in a row on home soil after ending a three year winless drought last week. Our top ranked player, Martin Kaymer, finished in tied 23rd and we had twelve of the top twenty three plus ties (12/27)* in total. 

Bo Van Pelt (ranked 3rd by Golf Predictor) won the CIMB Asia Pacific Classic Malaysia on the US PGA Tour. The 36 year old American birdied five of the last eight holes for a comprehensive six shot victory. Our top ranked player, Brandt Snedeker, finished in 13th and we had ten of the top thirteen plus ties (10/18) overall. 


*2 higher ranked players didn't play, thus promoting Cabrera Bello into the top 27.

2011 - Week 45 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions and statistics for this week, the Andalucia Masters (European PGA Tour) and the CIMB Asia Pacific Classic Malaysia (US PGA Tour), are now available on Golf Predictor. Even though the European PGA Tour season keeps going until December, this week sees the last event actually held in Europe. The remaining 8 events are held in Africa, Asia and the Middle East. Starting this week, the last two events sanctioned by the US PGA Tour are also off continent. Malaysia gets a US PGA Tour event this week, just 3 weeks before the European PGA Tour set up camp there!

2011 - Week 44 Winners

Sergio Garcia (ranked 1st by Golf Predictor) won the Castello Masters on the European PGA Tour. The 31 year old Spaniard ended his three year winless drought with a runaway victory in his home event. Garcia finished with a nine shot cushion after tearing up his home track three days in a row with rounds of 63, 64 and 63. Including the winner, we had ten of the top twenty plus ties (10/26) in total. 

Luke Donald (ranked 1st by Golf Predictor) won the Children's Miracle Network Hospitals Classic on the US PGA Tour. The 33 year old Englishman reeled off six birdies in a row on the back nine in a fantastic final round of 64 (-8) to overcome a five shot final day deficit. It was a sterling effort from Donald who needed a top two finish to overtake Webb Simpson at the top of the US PGA Tour money list. That keeps his historic bid to top the money list on both sides of the pond on track. Including the winner, we had eight of the top twenty plus ties (8/27). 

That makes it a rare double victory! In the 3.5 year history of Golf Predictor, I believe it's just the second time that the top ranked players (and bookie favourites) in both events won in the same week. It may even be the first!

New Predictions Page with Odds on Golf Predictor

New Predictions Page with Odds

GP video tutorial on this page

Thanks to an excellent user suggestion, a new predictions page has been added to Golf Predictor. This new "Predictions - Tournament Rankings (Odds)" page is identical to the main "Predictions - Tournament Rankings" page except for the last column of the table. The GP Score has been replaced with the approximate unbiased odds for the golfer to win the event. Clicking on the prediction page for any golfer will show the GP Score and approximate odds side by side in the general tab. This new page is accessible from the 'Stats Analysis' menu (second option) in the member section of the site. The screenshot above shows a snippet of the new page for this week's Children's Miracle Network Hospitals Classic. Note that the link to the main predictions page has been renamed to "Predictions" on the same menu.

This new functionality allows you to easily see if the price offered by your bookmaker for a golfer is fair or too generous/miserly, based on the golfer statistics. Note that the odds on this new page are only the approximate unbiased odds, based on an algorithm that generates them from the GP Score. This algorithm has been calibrated using the pre-event odds and GP Scores for several past tournaments and may need tweaking over the coming months. Note also that I have no prior expertise in odds settings, but have endeavoured to make these odds as accurate as possible.

As shown above, the book percentage and the overround/underround are also calculated and displayed on the page. The book percentage is the sum of the winning probabilities for each golfer in the event and would add up to 100% in a fair book. The overround* is the positive divergence from a fair book (i.e the amount over 100% that the book percentage is) and is essentially the bookie's profit in the ideal situation of a matched book. Similarly, the underround is the amount under 100% the book percentage is.

A fair book is very hard to achieve in an event with up to 210 participants! On examination of the book for several tournaments, I found that the bookies didn't even come close (around 160% in most cases)**. Because of this, I decided against adjusting the odds for a fair book, as the resulting prices would be so large as to be practically useless when comparing against your bookie's prices (which are far too low for the more accomplished golfers compared to their mathematical probabilities). Instead, I use the calibration approach outlined above so that value bets might be easier to spot. Depending on the composition of the field (e.g. percentage of no hopers and/or strong performers), the book percentage of my approximate odds can vary from close to fair (i.e. near to 100%) or widely skewed (e.g. 200%). Should enough users prefer the fair book with larger odds (ala Betfair - see below), then I will consider implementing that instead.

You can set your desired odds format on the member profile page (Member section, "My Golf Predictor - Edit/View Profile" menu option). The options are fractional (e.g. 7/1), decimal (e.g 8.0) or US (e.g. +700). If not set, fractional odds will be used. Like the main predictions page, only subscribers will be able to see the entire field. Non-subscribers will only see the approximate odds for those ranked 11-25.

Hopefully, this new page will add useful functionality for golf punters. It is available for all tournaments from this week on (week 44, 2011 season - The Castello Masters and the Children's Miracle Network Hospitals Classic). So, sign up today and reap the full benefits of Golf Predictor, the premium professional golf statistics site.


*Very similar to what is known as the "juice" or the "vig" (short for vigorish) in North America.

**This is because they have each way markets which can pay out at generous odds. The betting exchange Betfair gets pretty close to a fair book in its winner market. However, its fields seem to be smaller than those used for Golf Predictor (which includes alternates), which is an issue especially for European PGA Tour events. More significantly, the prices for many golfers in the middle of the book are huge compared to bookie prices (the problem I mentioned above for producing a fair book!). This obviously means that Betfair is a far better choice than a bookie for betting on such golfers!

2011 - Week 44 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions and statistics for this week, the Castello Masters (European PGA Tour) and the Children's Miracle Network Hospitals Classic (US PGA Tour), are now available on Golf Predictor. It's the second end* to the US season this week and Webb Simpson's narrow defeat last week has forced Luke Donald's hand. The Englishman has entered this week to try and keep his historic bid for both money titles alive. Meanwhile, in Europe, Sergio Garcia is once again hosting the Castello Masters on his home patch.


*And there are still two Asian events and various other US PGA Tour sanctioned events up until December 11th!

Golf Predictor Server Migration Complete

I am delighted to report that Golf Predictor is back up on its new server. Fortunately, the migration process only took a couple of hours. I apologise once again for this temporary outage, which was out of my control.

Golf Predictor Server Migration

I have just been informed by the hosting company that Golf Predictor is being migrated to a new server. Unfortunately, this communication came at very short notice and indicated that the process could take 24 to 36 hours. I presume that this is related to the recent short outages suffered by the site and I anticipate it will be back well before Thursday.

I would like to apologise for this outage, which is totally beyond my control. On the positive side, it should make for a better service once restored. I will monitor the situation closely and generate this week's predictions as soon as possible.

2011 - Week 43 Winners

Tom Lewis (ranked 134th by Golf Predictor) won the Portugal Masters on the European PGA Tour. The 20 year old English sensation outdid Tiger Woods by winning his maiden professional title in only his third event as a professional (hence not many stats to go on!). With 22 birdies and only one bogey in his last 52 holes, he certainly did it in style. Our top ranked player, Martin Kaymer, finished in tied 8th and we had eight of the top sixteen plus ties (8/22) in total. 

Ben Crane (ranked 10th by Golf Predictor) won The McGladrey Classic on the US PGA Tour. The 35 year old American won at the second hole of a sudden death play-off with Webb Simpson. It wasn't all bad news for the defeated Simpson, who overtook Luke Donald at the top of the money list. Our top ranked player, Matt Kuchar, finished in 20th and we had eight of the top twenty plus ties (8/20) overall.

2011 - Week 43 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions and statistics for this week, the Portugal Masters (European PGA Tour) and The McGladrey Classic (US PGA Tour), are now available on Golf Predictor. After the Tiger Woods hoopla last week, there are more typical late season events this week. However, there are still several former major champions lining out on both sides of the pond this week. Meanwhile, the bigger names are probably still in Asia raking in the appearance cash!!

2011 - Week 42 Winners

Lee Slattery (ranked 62nd by Golf Predictor) won the Bankia Madrid Masters on the European PGA Tour. The 33 year old Englishman survived a nervy double bogey seven finish to win his maiden title by a single shot. Our top ranked player, Luke Donald, finished poorly (+3 for last five holes) to fall to tied 11th and we had twelve of the top eighteen plus ties (12/27) in total. 

Bryce Molder (ranked 22nd by Golf Predictor) won the Frys.com Open on the US PGA Tour. The 32 year old American secured his maiden victory with a marathon six hole play-off victory over Briny Baird. The latest Tiger Woods comeback resulted in a 30th place finish. Our top ranked player, Paul Casey, faded on Sunday to finish in tied 7th and we had eight of the top twenty one plus ties (8/23) overall.

2011 - Week 42 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions and statistics for this week, the Bankia Madrid Masters (European PGA Tour) and the Frys.com Open (US PGA Tour), are now available on Golf Predictor. World number one, Luke Donald, is the biggest ever favourite in the history of Golf Predictor, with a massive statistical lead over his nearest challenger. His predecessor at the top of the pile, Tiger Woods, is forced to tee it up in the Fall Series this week in an effort to find some form ahead of the Presidents Cup. Having just fallen out of the top fifty in the rankings, he'll be hoping for the magic to return before he has to go to Q-School!

2011 - Week 41 Winners

Michael Hoey (ranked 19th by Golf Predictor) won the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship on the European PGA Tour. The 32 year old Northern Irish man held off his more famous compatriot, Rory McIlroy, to win his second event of the season by two shots. Our top ranked player, Luke Donald, finished in tied 9th and we had seven of the top eighteen plus ties (7/20) in total. 

Kevin Na (ranked 10th by Golf Predictor) won the Justin Timberlake Shriners Hospitals for Children Open on the US PGA Tour. The 28 year old American secured his maiden victory in a similar fashion to Hoey, finishing with three late birdies to win by two. Our top ranked player, Nick Watney, finished in 2nd and we had ten of the top sixteen plus ties (10/22) overall. 

Golf Predictor Back Again

The connection problem with Golf Predictor appears to have been fixed again. Hopefully, this will be the end to the hosting problems. Apologies once again to any members inconvenienced by this outage.

Golf Predictor Connection Issue Back Again

So much for hoping for another 3.5 years before the next connection issue! Unfortunately, the connection problem with Golf Predictor reported as fixed yesterday appears to have returned . This is a hosting issue that is unfortunately beyond my control. I have alerted the hosting company again, but it may take some time to resolve. Should this situation persist, I shall have to look into switching hosts. Apologies to anyone inconvenienced by this outage.

Golf Predictor Back Again

The connection problem with Golf Predictor has been fixed. This was indeed a hosting issue that I managed to get the hosting company to address. Apologies once again to any members inconvenienced by this outage. It was the first such occurrence in 3.5 years and hopefully the last for another 3.5 years at least!

Golf Predictor Connection Issue

There appears to be a connection problem with Golf Predictor at the moment. This is a hosting issue that is unfortunately beyond my control. I'm trying to get to the bottom of it, but it may take some time. Apologies to anyone inconvenienced by this outage.