Check out GolfForcast for Free

I’ve been speaking with Jim, the brains behind GolfForecast, and he’s giving Golf Predictor users/followers a free trial for a month to try their service.  

 

GolfForecast.co.uk is a cutting edge golf data analysis platform, primarily used for betting tips. They use modern data science and machine learning algorithms to make predictions and forecast results of upcoming golf events. They then compare these forecasts with the odds available from bookmakers and thus determine who to bet on and how much to bet in order to maximise the chances of making profit.

Key Features

GolfForecast has some really powerful features to really give you an edge, including:

1. Betting market analysis

This is a super valuable feature and is worth the subscription alone, I don’t know of anyone else offering this kind of thing. Firstly they compare all the bookies odds and each way terms (on oddschecker.com) and then calculate which odds and terms are best for each player. Below Paddy Power are offering the best odds and terms for Billy Horschel. The column ‘Normalised’ shows the odds you should get for Billy if the market was fair (bookies give you worse odds than they should so that they can make money), this is useful for comparing with the odds available on exchanges like Betfair. 

 

They also compare bookies as a whole to find the value in the market, shown by the highlighted number. This number changes based on the prestige of the event, majors usually have a really low overround of maybe just 1% whereas small European Tour events can have overrounds of 20% or more. If this number were ever negative you could bet on every golfer, with the best bookie, and be guaranteed to make money. They also show you which bookies are best for each event.

 

 

2. Stake optimisation and personalisation

They customise advised stakes to your bank roll. You enter how much you want to stake per event and then they divide this amount amongst the players tipped as their algorithm sees as optimal.

 

3. Choice of algorithm

Basically they’ve got two algorithms: one for maximising your return on investment and one that balances this with maximising strike rate. They recommend using the second one for reasons explained here.

Sign up for the exclusive free trial.

2020 Golf Predictor Betting/Tipping Summary

Another golf year has finished and it's time to report on the 2020 Golf Predictor bets/tips. It was a strange year due to the Coronavirus, which meant a lengthy lay off period, followed by many rearranged and new tournaments. This did not make the job of backing golfers any easier, but I am delighted to report that despite an horrendous first two thirds to the year, I was able to finish very strongly to record a modest profit. The distribution of my winning bets (places/outright wins) during the year is shown below:

2020 bets - Winning bets (Places/Wins)

 

This clearly shows the aforementioned brutal period up until September and solid finish there after. A similar chart below shows the  amount won with the winning bets over the full year:

 

2020 bets - Winning bets (Units won)

 

Based on a one unit each way bet in each case, the basic stats for my year of betting/tipping are as follows:

 

Bets:	158
Outright Wins	2	Catlin, Ireland (40/1), Rozner, Dubai (60/1)
Places	22	15 full, 7 dead heat
Withdrew	1	Soderberg, Irish Open
Total outlay:	316
Total Win:	336.66
Profit	20.66*
Profit Margin	6.54%

 

As you can see, despite only two wins and fifteen full places (and seven more partial, or dead heat, places), I still managed to turn a profit in 2020. That is because my betting strategy of predominately backing golfers in the 40/1 to 80/1 range doesn't need a high strike rate to be profitable, as I have demonstrated this year. Picking three or four golfers per event at these odds or above only requires one golfer to place to turn a profit and the occasional win can deliver a serious return. The chart below shows the odds distribution of my bets this year:

2020 bets - Odds Distribution

 

113 (71.5%) of my bets this year were in the 40/1 to 80/1 range, with just 21 (13.3%) at prices less than that. Of those shorter than 40/1, only 2 (1.3% of total) were less than 30/1 (a couple of 28/1 shots). The remainder of my bets were long shots with the highest price being 150/1.

Interestingly, the breakdown of my wins by tour shows that I landed far more places on the US PGA Tour, but no wins. The converse is true on the European Tour, where despite a measly three places all year, I did also manage to land my two wins at decent enough odds:

2020 bets - Winning bets (Places/Wins by Tour)

That meant that I made almost the same amount off both tours in 2020, as this final chart shows:

2020 bets - Winning bets (Units won by Tour)

The profit this year means that, over the longer term, I remain significantly ahead of the bookies. My performance this year also shows the importance of being in it for the long haul. Everyone has fallow patches, but it is possible to overcome them with patience if you have a decent betting strategy.

*Notes: I stuck with one bookie for convenience. If I used an odds checking site and multiple accounts, I probably would have have increased my profit by around 15 to 20 points.

2019 Golf Predictor Betting/Tipping Summary

Another golf year has finished and it's time to report on the Golf Predictor bets/tips for 2019. Only one win this year, a few play-off losses and a plethora of places, which all add up to a loss of just under 41 points for the year*. It's all fine margins and if my 80/1 tip Antoine Rozner had holed his birdie putt on the final hole in Mauritius a few weeks ago or had J.B. Hansen been able to chip on to a green from ten yards away at the penultimate hole in France, it would have meant a profit for the year. Alas, it wasn't to be and those failures coupled with a sizeable number of near miss places (including two at the very last tournament in Australia!) meant a non-profitable year. Overall though, over the longer term, I remain significantly ahead of the bookies.

I like to use Golf Predictor to find golfers to bet one unit each way on in the 40/1 to 80/1 range and this is borne out by some basic statistics. Out of the 224 bets that I made over the year, usually three per tournament (US and European Tour), only twelve (5.4%) were 33/1 or 35/1 and another nine (4%) were 125/1 or greater. As the image below shows, 84.4% of my bets were in my preferred range. 

Odds distribution for 2019 Golf Predictor bets/tips

I like each way bets in this range as it usually offers a (modest) profit for the tournament if just one of the golfers place. While a golfer in the 40/1 to 80/1 range hasn't got as much of a chance of winning as the top rated guys in single figures, they are very good golfers. In addition to being capable of winning, I believe they have a better chance of placing than, say, a 6/1 or 8/1 shot has of winning for a similar return. All you need for a profitable year is about two wins and a steady stream of places. While I had the latter this year, only having Shane Lowry in The Open (at 45/1) meant I just came up short in 2019. The basic stats are as follows:

Number of bets: 224

Profit/Loss: = -40.83

Winners: 1 (Shane Lowry at The Open)

Places: 34 (including two play-off losses and ten dead heat places)

No profit this year, but I'm hoping to get back in the black next year!

*Notes: I stuck with one bookie for convenience. If I used an odds checking site and multiple accounts, I probably would have cut my losses by around 10 to 15 points.

Open Championship - Betting Analysis

Based on the statistics on Golf Predictor for The Open Championship, here is my analysis of the tournament for betting purposes. The analysis for fantasy golf or DFS golf would be similar, except of course at the top end, where picking the favourites makes more sense (if possible from a usage or salary point of view). Of course, you are free to disagree and log in to Golf Predictor to make your own informed choices for the tournament! 

Overview

All the big names have gathered in Fife for the big one, except for the injured Rory McIlroy of course. It being Scotland, the weather could be a major factor this week. Rain and fairly high winds are forecast, so that could turn the form book on its head. However, there was a similar forecast for last week's Scottish Open and that didn't turn out too bad, except possibly for some wind on Sunday. Here's hoping for some good golf and may the best man win!

Form Golfers

Jordan Spieth's season keeps getting better and better. He overcame a slow start (mostly with a career low round!) to win for the fourth time last weekend at the John Deere. The two major wins, the two regular tournament wins, the three second places (one solo) and a tied third place finish means he is the favourite to win what would be a historic third leg of the grand slam. Rickie Fowler had a great win in Scotland at the weekend in similar conditions to what is expected at St. Andrews and is a self-confessed lover of links golf. Of the others, Zach Johnson, Kevin Kisner, Francesco Molinari and Brandt Snedeker all have good recent form also.

Horses for the Course

Louis Oosthuizen won The Open Championship the last time it was held at St. Andrews in 2010. The course is also used for two rounds of the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship every year on the European Tour. Oosthuizen also has two top six finishes at this regular event in the past five seasons, but he also has two missed cuts there in the same period. Lee Westwood, Shane Lowry, David Howell, Tommy Fleetwood and Luke Donald all have decent course form too.

Tournament Specialists

Adam Scott is the form man in this category, with top fives at last three Open Championships. Dustin Johnson also has pretty good tournament form and he did play very well at the links style Chambers Bay until the final green! Brandt Snedeker has had two top eleven finishes in the last three years at the tournament and Luke Donald has had some good results too, although not in the past two years.

Long Shots

Given Luke Donald's stats and welcome recent return to form with two top  tens, he's a great outside pick at 90/1. Victor Dubuisson has also shown some good form lately and has some good course and tournament form in the past few years, so he could be worth a punt at 66/1. Funny to think of Jim Furyk as a long shot, but at 80/1, that's what he is!

Undervalued

Based on their statistics, Bubba Watson, Jim Furyk and Matt Kuchar are the main undervalued golfers from the top echelon in the tournament. Bubba has never performed at The Open Championship, but Furyk was fourth last year and is coming off a win and two top fives in the recent past. Kuchar almost won in similar weather conditions on a similar type course on Sunday and finished tied twelfth at Chambers Bay in his previous outing. He also has had two top fifteen finishes in the past three years at this event. Lower down the order, Zach Johnson, Billy Horschel, Keegan Bradley and especially début man Robert Streb are undervalued by the bookies.

Overvalued

The bookies are afraid of Oosthuizen and Fowler and they are thus overvalued. Similarly, former winners on the course, Martin Kaymer and Branden Grace, are bad value as the bookies are taking no chances with them either. Big tournament performers Jason Day and Phil Mickelson are also a little overvalued for the tournament and the deserved favourite, Spieth is too short at about 6/1.

Addendum: Tiger Woods is very overvalued, given his largely abject performances this season. However, he has been showing signs of improvement lately and the course will be navigable for him with minimum use of his errant driver.

Summary

Jordan Spieth, Dustin Johnson and Rickie Fowler would all be good fantasy/DFS choices, but are available at too short a price for betting purposes. Fowler at about 16/1 might be just about worth backing.

The lower priced golfers who offer good value for an each way bet based on their stats are Adam Scott (about 20/1) and Shane Lowry (about 33/1). The Aussie has a great recent record at the tournament, finished tied fourth on the links style Chambers Bay last time out and is a proven major winner now. His price of 20/1 is the absolute lowest price I would ever back a golfer at. While a patriotic bet, Lowry has got a good record on the course, is coming off a great US Open and has great experience playing links golf, including that famous tournament victory as an amateur in the 2009 Irish Open. Brandt Snedeker at about 45/1 is also worthy of consideration, given his stats.

Higher priced golfers worth considering are Matt Kuchar, Victor Dubuisson, Jim Furyk and Luke Donald. It is inexplicable to me why Kuchar is available at 60/1, so he should be a lock for an each way bet. Dubuisson and Donald are coming into form and have performed well at the tournament in the not too distant past. Furyk is usually a solid performer, has pretty good stats and is also available at the generous price of around 80/1.

Note that the weather forecast could be vital as being on the wrong side of the draw could spell the end of a golfer's chances in this event. Therefore, it might be prudent to wait for the draw and studying the weather forecast before committing any money!

Weather Update (Wed, 16th July)

 Winds are forecast to be strong, especially on Friday afternoon. This favours those who start late on Thursday and early on Friday, so check the tee times before making your final selections! Friday afternoon starters include Jordan Spieth, Luke Donald, Lee Westwood, Tiger Woods, Victor Dubuisson, Dustin Johnson, David Howell, Jason Day and Louis Oosthuizen.

John Deere Classic - Betting Analysis

Based on the statistics on Golf Predictor for the John Deere Classic, here is my analysis of the tournament for betting purposes. The analysis for fantasy golf or DFS golf would be similar, except of course at the top end, where picking the favourites makes more sense (if possible from a usage or salary point of view). Of course, you are free to disagree and log in to Golf Predictor to make your own informed choices for the tournament! 

Overview

As usual for this event, which is held the week before the Open Championship on a different continent, there aren’t a lot of big names in the field. While most of the top golfers are already in the British Isles honing their links course skills, Jordan Spieth and Zach Johnson are the biggest names joining the event’s biggest supporter, Steve Stricker, in Illinois. The weather may be be a little wet on Friday and Saturday, but shouldn't be a major factor this week.

Form Golfers

Except for his blow out at the Players Championship, Jordan Spieth has had an incredible season, with his two major wins, three second places (one solo) and a tied third place finish. More recently, he’s coming off that Chambers Bay victory of course, but he also has second and third place finishes in his last four events. Zach Johnson, Kevin Kisner, Steven Bowditch, Robert Streb and Tony Finau also have good recent form. Of these, while being consistent, Finau hasn’t finished in the top five in his PGA Tour career yet. All the others have at least one top five in their last five events, one achieved without a putter for half of his final round (Streb at the Greenbrier Classic)!

Horses for the Course

Steve Stricker and Zach Johnson are the real course specialists, both with an impressive record over the last six seasons at TPC Deere Run. Stricker has had three consecutive wins here from 2009-2011 and backed it up with two top tens and a tied eleventh place finish since then. Johnson also has an amazing recent record on the course with a win in 2012, three runners up finishes (one solo) and a tied third place in the last six seasons. Of the guys with less course history, Jordan Spieth and Scott Brown both have two top seven finishes here in the last three seasons, with Spieth recording the first win of his already impressive career here in 2013.

Long Shots

Scott Brown has good course form and solid recent form, including one tied twelfth place finish. This makes him a good long shot pick. Chad Campbell has had two top fifteen finishes in the last two years here and is showing decent recent form, including a top ten in the FedEx St Jude Classic.

Undervalued

Based on their statistics, Steven Bowditch, Robert Streb and Tony Finau are the main undervalued golfers from the top echelon in the tournament. Lower down the order, Scott Brown and especially Chad Campbell are undervalued by the bookies.

Overvalued

Obviously, the bookies are very afraid of Jordan Spieth and Zach Johnson and are priced to deter backers. The consistent Kevin Kisner doesn’t offer much value either. Justin Thomas is very overvalued, especially in light of his meltdown last Sunday at the Greenbrier Classic. Defending champion Brian Harman is also somewhat overvalued as the bookies are putting too much stock in his win last year and his third place finish last time out at the Travelers Championship.

Summary

Both Jordan Spieth and Zach Johnson have great stats, but they are priced accordingly. Spieth is available at a prohibitively low price of around 4/1. Zach Johnson is not much better, available at around 10/1 with most bookies. Part timer Steve Stricker hasn’t been playing enough or well enough this season, so he is available at a more generous 30/1. He has been off the boil recently and is thus hard to back, despite his great record at TPC Deere Run. Serial play-off loser Kevin Kisner has been knocking on the door lately, but at around 16/1 his price isn’t very attractive. Tony Finau (about 40/1) has had good recent form, without placing at any event and his length won’t be a huge advantage on this average length course.

The golfers who offer good value for an each way bet based on their stats are Robert Streb, Steven Bowditch, Scott Brown and Chad Campbell. Streb (around 33/1 to 40/1) and Bowditch (around 50/1) know how to win, have good recent form and are available at decent prices. Bowditch has had top twelve finishes in the last two years here, while Streb has had two solid, if not spectacular, results at the event. As for the long shots, Scott Brown has good course form and solid recent form, including one twelfth place finish, thus making him a good pick at around 66/1. Punters wishing to push the boat out a little further should consider Chad Campbell, who is available at around 100/1, despite having similar recent and/or course stats to many of the more fancied players.

Why I got rid of my New Bookmaker (William Hill)

Recently, I waxed lyrical about my new my new bookmaker (William Hill). Unfortunately, the love affair hasn't lasted very long! As I wrote a post promoting William Hill, I couldn't in good conscience fail to update you all with my less than satisfactory experience with them this past week or so.

Things went swimmingly well in the first week, when I lost my bet! However, that changed when I won a dead heat place last Sunday with the free matched bet that I received for signing up. I had €10 each way on Zach Johnson at 16/1 for the Wyndham Championship and I was happy to see that he ended up in a three way tie for 5th (the last of the places that my former new bookie was paying out on). However, my happiness was dispelled pretty quickly when I checked my account the following day and found it credited with a paltry €6.67. Even if this was won with a free bet, which doesn't return the original stake (somewhat tight, but fair enough as they say it up front), it was half of the approximately €13.34 that I was expecting.

Now, I've won on dead heats with my other bookie and they calculate the return by dividing the initial stake by the number of dead heat finishers and applying the full odds to that. In this case it would be:

((10/3)*4/1)+ 10/3 = €16.67

where 4/1 is a quarter of the odds for the place and the second 10/3 is my initial (dead heat adjusted) stake returned. This of course reduces their payouts by reducing the amount of your original stake that they have to return. This seems to be the industry standard and is in the dead heat betting rules for William Hill also. I've checked this on a popular golf betting forum, where knowledgeable contributors backed up my understanding. So far so good.

However, despite their own dead heat betting rules which clearly state they do the same, William Hill has calculated the win as:

 ((10* 4/1)+10)/3 = €16.67

which is the same as before, but it retains the original stake of €10. As this was won with a free bet, they deduct the entire €10 stake from the winnings to leave €6.67. Using the dead heat rule as I understand it and the first calculation above, I should have lost €3.33 from the €16.67, leaving €13.34. As I could not see anything which altered the dead heat rule for free bets, I was perplexed by this payout. This led me to contact them for an explanation, which was an extremely frustrating experience, to say the least.

First I live chatted with a couple of customer service agents and then I had an increasingly frustrating and almost comical lengthy email exchange (see below for transcript) with the various agents manning the support email line, where they consistently avoided my questions/points and stuck religiously to a stock answer (that was obviously at odds with their own rules). It was clear to me that they were ignorant of the dead heat rule and the correct calculation and steadfastly opposed to countenancing a possible error in their system or admitting to a deliberate miscalculation.

Clearly, this isn't about the small amount money, but the principle! Anyone can make a mistake and if they investigated it properly, said there was an error in their systems and apologised, all would have been perfectly fine. Ditto if they gave me a valid reason for retaining the entire €10 stake from the winnings. Instead, the customer service seemed clueless and operate with a set series of useless replies that were obviously designed merely to clear support calls (see transcript below). Instead of finding out if could there be an error, they repeatedly provided useless information, such as the rules for horse racing betting. They even give me a bet calculator link that I had already used (and quoted in a previous mail) to prove my own point. In all my years, I have never seen such useless customer service.

Assuming I am correct, either there is an error in their systems and their customer service is woefully incompetent or they wilfully adjusted the formula to minimise the payout. I can not in good faith recommend William Hill in either case (especially the latter) and I would urge you to take your on-line business elsewhere. 

Even if I turn out to be completely wrong, I can not be a customer of a company that supports paying customers so poorly. I'm sticking with my original bookmaker for the time being. Their prices may not as good sometimes, but their customer service is excellent and they have never pulled a stroke like this in the two years I have been with them.


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Slightly edited (mainly for typos) transcript of most of my electronic correspondence with what passes for Customer Support in William Hill. Their contributions are in red and my increasingly frustrated replies are in green:

(Please read from the bottom up. I gave up after this final mail (which I asked them not to send!), which once again missed the point completely, confused the issue further and referred me yet again to horse racing betting rules).

Hi Aidan,

Thank you for your e-mail and we apologize for the delay.

Upon checking your account, we have checked your transaction details as requested and note that it has been settled correctly with returns of £6.67 credited to your account.

Your selection Zach Johnson was involved in a dead heat with Matt Every for the Wyndham Championship. In the event of a dead heat your stake is divided by the number of selections involved in this case your stake is £20.00, so your wager becomes £20 with the odds of 16/1 unfortunately your tied with Matt
Every and you used a free bet of £20 (free bets are not paid out in the total winnings) thus returning you a total of £6.67.

For a better review of our free bets and horse racing rules kindly click on the links below:
https://williamhill-lang.custhelp.com/app/answers/detail/a_id/5652/session/L3RpbWUvMTM3NzIyNDA3OC9zaWQvV3FBQTZzeWw%3D/#4
https://williamhill-lang.custhelp.com/app/answers/detail/a_id/8339/kw/horse%20racing%20rules

We hope this answers your query. If we can be of any further assistance please do not hesitate to contact us.

With regards,

Al

Customer Services
William Hill Online

Thank you one again for outdoing your usual useless response.

Once again you have completely ignored my point with a stock answer that
appears to be blatantly wrong. Thank you for adding further confusion to
the mix though by finally acknowledging the "unit stake" of 3.33. By your
comment, this is applied to the bet apparently, but not to the original
stake returned which is magically back up to the original stake (10).
Conveniently for you, you don't have to return this as it's the free bet
component.

Please do not reply to this email as you are just infuriating me.

--
Rgds,

Aidan

On 21 August 2013 18:10, support@willhill.com wrote:

Hi Aidan,

Thank you for your email.

We apologise for any inconvenience that this may have caused you. Please be informed that the Dead Heat rules was applied to your bet, and this was settled correctly. This was already explained to you on the previous email that you have received.

Here is the guide on how to calculate your bet:
Please select single each way. Please note that your unit stake should be
10 only as it is divided into 2 for place part and win part.
Please enter placed as the status of the bet at 16/1 odds to 1/4 place.
After you enter calculate, the returns total returns is £50.00
£50.00 divided by the number of winning selections for placed 5th which is
3 = £16.67
£16.67 minus the stake = £6.67

Your unit stake will only be 3.33 since only 1/3 of the unit stake will be calculated due to the Dead Heat on Place 5. You may use the below free bet calculator to calculate your returns:

http://www.free-bet-calculator.co.uk/

We hope this answers your query. Should you have further questions or concerns, please do not hesitate to contact us via e-mail at support@willhill.com or via our Live Chat facility. We are here to assist you 24/7.

Kind regards,

A

Customer Services
William Hill Online
Thank you for yet another useless response.

I realise I am wasting my time, but here goes:

I agreed to the terms and conditions. It is you who are breaking them (by
not applying your dead heat rules as YOU STATE IN YOUR DEAD HEAT BETTING
RULE at
https://williamhill-lang.custhelp.com/app/answers/detail/a_id/135/kw/DEAD%20HEAT/related/1).
That link you supplied relates to horse racing and is not pertinent to
golf. I already studied the golf betting rules (
https://williamhill-lang.custhelp.com/app/answers/detail/a_id/7460/kw/DEAD%20HEAT)
and it referred to the dead heat rule (link above) which clearly divides
the stake by the number of players in the dead heat.

I apologise for a link that I supplied in a previous mail (
http://www.willhill-sportsbetting.com/golf), that on closer inspection
isn't a William Hill site at all (but obviously designed to fool people
that it is) ***NOTE - I now think this is a WH site!***. The fact that you did not spot this honest mistake tells me
you haven't investigated this matter properly and are content to fob me off
continuously. In any event, your real dead heat page says exactly the same
thing and this and my previous correspondence clearly shows you are
calculating the bet in a manner inconsistent with this (and every other
bookmaker I am aware of). However, you still steadfastly refuse to admit it.

I shall be taking my modest business elsewhere. It might be a small amount
of money, but it's a matter of principle. I would have thought WH to be an
honourable company, but apparently I was wrong. I have no interest to do
any business with a company that treats its customers in such a shoddy
manner.

Please do not respond for the sake of responding, especially if you totally
ignore my questions/concerns.

--
Rgds,

Aidan

On 21 August 2013 13:18, support@willhill.com wrote:


Hi Aidan,

Thank you for your email.

With regards to your concern about the Terms and Conditions, please be advised that this is the same Terms that you have agreed to when you have signed up for the account. In which concludes that you have agreed to the process of the settlement and the process that is done. You may read and take not of the rules on the help section of the website as provided on this link.

: https://williamhill-lang.custhelp.com/app/answers/detail/a_id/9095

Should you have further questions or concerns, please do not hesitate to contact us via e-mail at support@willhill.com or via our Live Chat facility. We are here to assist you 24/7.

Best Regards,

P

Customer Service
William Hill Online

Hi,

Thank you for the reply which ignored my point completely and reiterated
your previous point about how you calculated the final amount.

My point was that this calculation that you applied is not the same as the
one in your terms and conditions or that used by other bookmakers. You
purposely divided by the dead heat number (3) at the very end (to the 50
due had the bet not been a dead heat) so as to maximise the free bet
component (10) in the final result, thereby reducing the amount due to me.
The dead heat number (3) should have been applied to the stake/free bet
component (10) first, giving 3.33. This is what I should have lost out of
the 16.67 (3.33 * 4/1 + dead heat original stake).

This is not my first dead heat bet and I know how they work. I shall not be
using WH any more and I will be updating my thousands of readers/followers
with new information after my previous positive blog article and social
media posts last week.

--
Rgds,

Aidan

On 21 August 2013 02:03, support@willhill.com wrote:


Hi Aidan,

Thank you for your e-mail.

We apologise for the inconvenience this may have caused you and for any delays in our response. In relation to your query, please be informed that you have placed your bet using free bet bonus. Free bet stakes are not returned as part of the settlement of successful free bets, as per terms.

Here is the guide on how to calculate your bet:
Please select single eachway. Please note that your unit stake should be
10 only as it is divided into 2 for place part and win part.
Please enter placed as the status of the bet at 16/1 odds to 1/4 place.
After you enter calculate, the returns total returns is £50.00
£50.00 divided by the number of winning selections for placed 5th which is
3 = £16.67
£16.67 minus the stake = £6.67

We hope this answers your query. Should you have further questions or concerns, please do not hesitate to contact us via e-mail at support@willhill.com or via our Live Chat facility. We are here to assist you 24/7.

With regards,

J

Customer Services
William Hill Online

Hi,

Thanks very much for the detailed reply. I now understand how you arrived at
that amount, which is exactly what I wanted to know.

My only issue now is that your method of calculation is at variance with
your own dead heat rules on http://www.willhill-sportsbetting.com/golf ,
which I referred to previously:

- For Place/Show/Top 4/Top 10 betting - when there is a dead heat where
the number of tied participants exceeds the places available for that
particular bet, the stake money/amount wagered is multiplied by the number
of places on offer but divided by the number of tied participants.
- The full odds are then paid to the divided stake, with the remainder
of the stake money being lost.
- Example - a 3 way tie for third on a top four bet would result in the
stake money /amount wagered being multiplied by 2 but divided by 3.

This clearly states that my stake money (10) should be multiplied by the
number of places (1) and divided by the number of dead heats (3) and the
full odds (1/4 of 16/1 = 4/1) applied to this. This gives the value I
quoted in my previous mail:

(€10*1)/3 =€3.33 = stake money
Full odds = 1/4 of 16/1 = 4/1

return = €3.33*4 = €13.32 (excluding original stake of €3.33, which was a
free bet).

I verified this amount with a couple of online bet calculators (e.g
http://www.free-bet-calculator.co.uk/) and tried to do the same on your
calculator. This seemed to be always the amount without a dead heat (50)
regardless of what dead heat options are selected and isn't very intuitive
to use unfortunately.

It appears to me that you have changed the calculation rules in order to
maximise the initial stake (free bet) in the final amount and reduce the
payout in this case. That is very disappointing. I had blogged and tweeted
recently to my many readers/followers very positively about WH, but I now
may have to overrule my first impressions.

--
Rgds,

Aidan


On 20 August 2013 10:02, support@willhill.com wrote:

>
> * Subject: William Hill Online* Hi Aidan,
>
> Good day!
>
> Firstly, we do apologise for the inconvenience this matter caused. We are
> writing with regard to your bet **Bet No.***. We have checked your
> transaction details as requested and note that it has been settled
> correctly with returns of £6.67 credited to your account.
>
> Your selection Zach Johnson was involved in a dead heat with Matt Every
> and Matt Jones for the Wyndham Championship - Tournament Winner. In the
> event of a dead heat your stake is divided by the number of selections
> involved.
>
> Here is the guide on how to calculate your bet:
> Please select single eachway. Please note that your unit stake should be
> 10 only as it is divided into 2 for place part and win part.
> Please enter placed as the status of the bet at 16/1 odds to 1/4 place.
> After you enter calculate, the returns total returns is £50.00
> £50.00 divided by the number of winning selections for placed 5th which is
> 3 = £16.67
> £16.67 minus the stake = £6.67 We can see that you have placed a free bet.
> Please note that Free Bet stake is not included in any winnings. The
> Estimated Return on the Bet Slip and the Bet Receipt indicate returns with
> stake.
>
> We can confirm that your bet has been settled correctly. You may click the
> link provided to work out on your bet:
> http://form.williamhill.com/betcalc/EN/calc.html . 
>
> We hope this answers your query. If we can be of any further assistance
> please do not hesitate to contact us.
>
> With regards,
>
> C
>
> Customer Services
> William Hill Online Hi Mae,
>
> Thanks for the email. Unfortunately, it doesn't address my issue. I asked
> for an explanation of how my bet (*** bet No ***) returned €6.67, no
> a
> blanket yes/no it is wrong or right. Since I have now asked both you and a
> colleague this question, I'm started to believe you do not know how to
> calculate dead heat bets either.
>
> From http://www.willhill-sportsbetting.com/golf
>
> - For Place/Show/Top 4/Top 10 betting - when there is a dead heat where
> the number of tied participants exceeds the places available for that
> particular bet, the stake money/amount wagered is multiplied by the number
> of places on offer but divided by the number of tied participants.
> - The full odds are then paid to the divided stake, with the remainder
> of the stake money being lost.
> - Example - a 3 way tie for third on a top four bet would result in the
> stake money /amount wagered being multiplied by 2 but divided by 3.
>
> I had €10 e/w (5 places) on Zach Johnson at 16/1. He finished T5th with 2
> other golfers. From your definition above,
>
> (€10*1)/3 =€3.33 = stake money
> Full odds = 1/4 of 16/1 = 4/1
>
> return = €3.33*4 = €13.32 (excluding original stake of €3.33, which was a
> free bet).
>
> Can you please point out where this calculation is wrong? I seem to be
> only
> getting 2/1 on the Zach Johnson bet as per the infoin my WH account:
>
> Patrick Reed (9/2) Y Jordan Spieth (4/1) (Place 2) John Huh (9/2)
> (Place 3) Brian Harman (20/1) (Place 3) Zach Johnson (2/1) (Place 5) Matt
> Jones (-) (Place 5) Matt Every (16/1) (Place 5) Scott Stallings (void)
>
> Why is Johnson at 2/1, not 4/1 and what is wrong with my calculation?
>
> Please respond to these specific questions.
>
> Thanks.
>
> --
>
> Aidan
>
> ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
> On 19 August 2013 10:00, support@willhill.com
> wrote:
> >
> > Hi Aidan,
>
> Good day!
>
> We have checked bet **Bet No.*** as requested and confirmed that it
> was settled correctly as you have placed the bet using £20 free bet. Please
> be advised that Free Bet stake is not included in any returns. The
> Estimated Return on the Bet Slip and the Bet Receipt indicate returns with
> stake.
>
> If you have further questions, please do not hesitate to email us.
> Alternatively, you may contact us through our Live Chat facility and we
> would be more than happy to discuss any issues or concerns that you have
> with our products and services.
>
> With regards,
>
> M
>

My New Bookmaker (William Hill)

Note: This post has been superseded by this one.

As you probably know by now, I like to have a flutter on golf tournaments using the powerful stats that are available on Golf Predictor. Recently, I’ve been looking around for a new on-line bookie, one with generally better prices and a cleaner interface than my current one. Luckily, I was approached by a marketeer for William Hill this week, so I decided to give it a go.

Signing up was quick and painless and within about five minutes, I was perusing its many different markets for this week's US PGA Championship. Lodging my initial stake money was just as easy, with fourteen different options to choose from, including credit card, PayPal and bank transfer. As one of the biggest and best known bookmakers in the United Kingdom, I did not have any trust issues nor was I worried about account security. Although I haven’t had to use this feature (yet!), withdrawing cash from your account is just also straightforward and is easily accessible from your account page.

Once you are set up and ready to go, there are an impressive number of betting options in many different tournaments to choose from. I like the interface, which is very uncluttered and easy to navigate. Within each tournament, there are comprehensive match ups in addition to the markets for winner, top ten finish, top European, top American, first round leader and so on. In general, the prices seemed more generous than my previous bookie, so I was happy to make the change. As a new customer, I even received a golf betting bonus - a free matched bet of up to £25 Sterling. So, if my first punt on the winner of the US PGA Championship doesn’t work out, at least I’ll get another bet of the same value to try my luck again! However, with William Hill offering a generous six places on this market, I’m confident of a return on my each way bet!

Helpfully, William Hill also provide a podcast with a former European PGA Tour professional to analyse the upcoming golf tournaments. I found listening to this very useful ahead of the last major of the season. All in all, I was impressed with the site and look forward to building on my stake money in the next few months! If you are considering opening an on-line account or changing your on-line bookie, I recommend that you give William Hill a try*. 


*If you do, please remember to gamble responsibly.