2014 - Week 43 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions and statistics for this week, the BMW Masters (European PGA Tour) and the CIMB Classic (US PGA Tour), are now available on Golf Predictor. Both major tours are in Asia this week and like last year, the Kuala Lumpur Golf and Country Club, the home of the Maybank Malaysian Open on the European Tour for the past few years, is hosting the US Tour. As most of the field is from the US Tour, course history from the European Tour events is not much of a factor. Although there is no Rory McIlroy in China this week due to his impending legal difficulties, there are several other European big names teeing it up.

2014 - Week 42 Winners

Thorbjorn Olesen (ranked 10th by Golf Predictor) won the ISPS HANDA Perth International on the European PGA Tour. The 24 year old Dane won his second tour title with a comfortable win in Australia. On a day where European Tour cards were up for grabs, Olesen held his nerve after a mid round wobble to win by three shots. Our top ranked player, Victor D|ubuisson, finished in second place and we had six of the top fifteen plus ties (6/18) overall. 

Robert Streb (ranked 36th by Golf Predictor) won The McGladrey Classic on the US PGA Tour. The 27 year old American came from behind to win his first PGA Tour title in a three man play-off  with Will MacKenzie and Brendan de Jonge. After Streb stormed home with 63 to set the clubhouse target, he played solid golf to pip de Jonge with a short range birdie at the second extra hole. After tipping him and backing him at 66/1 each way (thanks to the new Performance Likelihood metric), it was a good week for me too! Our top ranked player, Matt Kuchar, finished in tied 22nd and we had only five of the top seventeen plus ties (5/21) overall.

'Performance Likelihood' Metric added to Golf Predictor

Prediction Rankings page with new colour coded Performance Likelihood column & chart

GP video tutorial on this functionality

I am pleased to announce the addition of an experimental new "Performance Likelihood" metric to Golf Predictor. This new empirical metric is based on an examination of the useful Tournament Winners Form page (Other Stats menu) on Golf Predictor. On analysing the tournament winners from the European and US PGA Tours over the past couple of seasons, I noticed that about 90% of them had recorded at least one top twenty finish in their previous six tournaments that season and/or their last six tournaments on the same course and/or the previous six similar tournaments played*. Of the roughly 10% of winners who hadn't registered such a decent recent finish, most of these were in tournaments with traditionally poor fields that are very difficult to call.

I decided to create an algorithm based on this interesting observation to try and predict the likelihood of any participating golfer winning or performing well in an upcoming tournament. For the lack of a better name, I have called this the "Performance Likelihood" and like the GP Rank, it is designed to produce a percentage value. Unlike the GP Rank, it only considers top twenty finishes in the previous six events in each of the following: the current season, on the same course and in similar events. Therefore, it excludes all other results and all the other metrics used to calculate the GP Rank, e.g. world ranking. Some notes on this new metric:

1. Any golfer who has won all eighteen tournaments analysed (see above) will have a value of approximately 100% for this metric. This is very unlikely to happen, although Tiger in his pomp would have gotten fairly close at some events!
2. Golfers with no top twenty finishes in all eighteen tournaments analysed will have a value of 0% for this metric. This does not mean they have no chance, only that they are not good picks!
3. Golfers get awarded increasingly more percentage points for top twenty, top fifteen, top ten, top five and wins in all eighteen tournaments analysed.
4. Any golfer with a value greater than zero is a possible decent pick. Anyone with a value over about 20% might be a good pick, over approximately 40% a great pick and you could almost put your house on anyone with a value greater than about 60%! This assumes there is full course history and sufficient season history for the golfer in question.
5. Golfers up near the top of the GP rankings will obviously tend to have higher values, but less consistent golfers further down the list can still have relatively large values (as bad results are ignored). These golfers may make good long shot punts.
6. Like all golf predictions, this metric is more accurate for tournaments with good fields and that are played on the same course every year. Of course, there will probably be golfers at any given tournament with no official course history. The algorithm takes whether there is any course history for a golfer or not into account.
7. If there is no course history for a golfer/tournament, the value will be less accurate, as there is only recent season and similar tournament history to go on.
8. Similarly, the algorithm will not be as accurate in early season events as it will be once each golfer has played six events in the current GP season (calendar year).
9. For many regular events later in the GP season, the previous six events in the same season and the six previous similar events could be very similar. This could lead to artificially high values if someone has a good recent season record ahead of such a tournament. This has been accounted for in the algorithm.
10. The algorithm may need further tweaking, but it looks OK after the first few weeks of testing!

This metric has been added to the General panel on the 'Prediction Data' page for each golfer. It has also been added to the main Prediction Rankings page as a sortable column, with the header text PL(%). This column has been colour coded with deeper shades of green representing higher values, as shown in the screenshot above for the 2014 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship. Incidentally, the value for Rory McIlroy is the largest calculated so far and he came tied second in that event (and possibly would have won it if he hadn't putted into the road hole bunker on the 71st hole!). The less useful similar weather column has had to be removed from the Prediction Rankings page to make room, but it is still available on the Odds version of the page (Predictions menu). There is also a new "Most Likely to Perform" chart on the Prediction Rankings page, which shows the golfers with the highest value in this new metric graphically.

I have also added this new metric to the Field Rankings page and the two Compare Field Rankings pages on the Prediction Menu and added it to the associated charts on those pages. Note that this new metric (and associated chart) is not available prior to week 39, 2014 (the week of the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship/week before the start of the 2014/15 US PGA Tour season). You may have to refresh an updated page to see the changes.

I trust you will find this new premium feature useful. Any feedback (via comments on this article or email) on the value itself or the colour coding would be most welcome. Like other premium features, non-subscribers can only see this new metric for golfers ranked 11-25 in the prediction rankings and will not be able to see the new chart. Therefore, sign up today and reap the full benefits of Golf Predictor, the premium professional golf statistics site.


*Only the course and similar tournament history in the current and previous five seasons is used in the algorithm.

2014 - Week 42 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions and statistics for this week, the ISPS HANDA Perth International (European PGA Tour) and The McGladrey Classic (US PGA Tour), are now available on Golf Predictor. Several big name players are making the long trek to Perth to join the other (mostly local) competitors. Along with the journeymen desperate to retain their playing rights for next year, Victor Dubuisson, Jason Dufner and Charl Schwartzel are also competing in Perth. There is also a fairly decent field in Georgia, where Matt Kuchar and Zach Johnson are among the bigger names teeing it up.

2014 - Week 41 Winners

Scott Hend (ranked 21st by Golf Predictor) won the Hong Kong Open on the European PGA Tour. The 41 year old Australian won his first tour title on the first hole of a play-off with the colourful Angelo Que. Having had to conjure up a sand save on the final regulation hole from a plugged lie, Hend took the title after Que failed to get up and down for par from just off the green on the first play-off hole. Our top ranked player, Miguel Angel Jimenez, was ill apparently and missed the cut, and we had only five of the top fifteen plus ties (5/20) in total. 

Mikko Ilonen (ranked 12th by Golf Predictor) won the Volvo World Match Play Championship on the European PGA Tour. The 34 year old Finn won his second title of the season with a 3&1 victory over the more fancied Henrik Stenson. Golf Predictor isn't designed for match play events, but as the annual joke goes, we had sixteen of the top sixteen!!

Ben Martin (ranked 75th by Golf Predictor) won the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open on the US PGA Tour. The 27 year old American won his first tour title with a late flourish of an eagle on sixteen and a closing birdie. Our top ranked player, Billy Horschel, saw his recent hot streak come to an abrupt end as he missed the cut. Overall, we had thirteen of the top eighteen plus ties (13/27)*.

*With withdrawals and no shows, Bohn makes top 27 in GP rankings. 

2014 - Week 41 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions and statistics for this week, the Volvo World Match Play Championship (European PGA Tour), the Hong Kong Open (European PGA Tour) and the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open (US PGA Tour), are now available on Golf Predictor. There are three events on the two major tours this week. Even though Golf Predictor is designed for stroke play events, the Volvo World Match Play Championship has also been put through the wringer as usual!

There are several European Ryder Cup stars competing and one American, Patrick Reed. With his rookie performance at Gleneagles, it was a good decision to cross the pond again! That doesn't leave much star power for the more modest Hong Kong Open. Miguel Angel Jimenez will be defending his title and hoping to raise his own record of oldest winner on the European PGA Tour yet again. This must be the first time that a senior has led the rankings/betting in a European Tour event! Meanwhile, the Las Vegas event on the US PGA Tour has a few biggish names competing this year. Chief among them is Billy Horschel, who must be hoping that his hot streak hasn't come to an end after a few weeks off!

2014 - Week 40 Winners

Alexander Levy (ranked 21st by Golf Predictor) won the Portugal Masters on the European PGA Tour. The 24 year old Frenchman won his second title of the season and his career in soggy Vilamoura. After storming to a record equalling -18 after two rounds, Levy only hit four shots over the weekend before the event was finally cut to 54 holes and he was deemed the winner. Our top ranked player, Francesco Molinari, was deemed to have missed the cut and we had seven of the top seventeen plus ties (7/20*) in total in the rain affected event. 

Sang-Moon Bae (ranked 80th by Golf Predictor) won the Frys.com Open on the US PGA Tour. The 28 year old South Korean won his second tour title, despite a nervy final day performance. However, the lead Bae had built up over the first three rounds proved to be sufficient in the end as no one made a real run at him. Our top ranked player, Matt Kuchar, finished poorly on Sunday for tied 21st and in a tournament traditionally hard to predict (usually due to the relatively poor field and this year with a new course), we had only four of the top twelve plus ties (4/16). 


*Ramsay withdrew, thus promoting Levy into the top twenty of the GP rankings.

2014 - Week 40 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions and statistics for this week, the Frys.com Open (US PGA Tour) and the Portugal Masters (European PGA Tour) are now available on Golf Predictor. It's the first event of the new 2014/15 US PGA Tour season, and unlike last season, a few big guns will be trying to get their new campaigns off to a flying start. While several Ryder Cup stars are teeing it up in California, the field in Portugal is more modest, where Ireland's in-form Shane Lowry will be one of the leading contenders.

2014 - Week 39 Winner

Oliver Wilson (ranked 23rd by Golf Predictor) won the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship on the European PGA Tour. The 34 year old Englishman finally won his first tour title with a one shot victory in Scotland. After nine runners up finishes and a career slump over the past few seasons, it was an emotional victory for Wilson. Our top ranked player, Rory McIlroy, finished in tied 2nd and we had nine of the top eighteen plus ties (9/24)* in the weather affected event.

There was no event on the US PGA Tour this week as it is the short close season.


*Dredge didn't play so Uihlein is promoted to the top 24 of the GP rankings.