Performance Likelihood Updates

Main ranking page showing new pop-up on the PL(%) column

I am pleased to announce a minor enhancement to the Performance Likelihood functionality on Golf Predictor. As can be seen in the screenshot above for last week's BMW International Open, you can now see how many tournaments a player has played on the tournament course in the previous five seasons by hovering over the PL(%) column.

This has been done to help your decision making. As noted in the original post on performance likelihood (linked to above), this metric is more accurate when there is full course history available for the golfer. When this is not the case, the algorithm has to rely on the season and similar event history alone and may overestimate the value. You can now easily see how many times the golfer has played on the course in the previous five seasons by simply hovering over the column. The same information has also been added to the hover text on the performance likelihood chart, which is available from the same page (as the "Most Likely to Perform" chart).

In addition, I have amended the performance likelihood algorithm to reduce the value returned when there is no course history for the golfer. This should result in more appropriate values for future tournaments in this situation.

Just another way to make Golf Predictor a little better!

2015 - Week 26 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions and statistics for this week, the Alstom Open de France (European PGA Tour) and the Greenbrier Classic (US PGA Tour), are now available on Golf Predictor. There are decent fields this week as we reach the midpoint between the US Open and the next major in two week's time, The Open Championship.Those playing in Paris better have packed their sunscreen as it is forecast to be blistering hot, with temperatures of up to 39C (102F) promised during the tournament. Let's hope the golf sizzles as much as the weather!

2015 - Week 25 Winners

Pablo Larrazabal (ranked 31st by Golf Predictor) won the BMW International Open on the European PGA Tour. The 32 year old Spaniard won his fourth tour title with a final day 66 (-6) to pip clubhouse leader Henrik Stenson by a shot. The 2011 champion Larrazabal started quickly with 31 on the front nine and played tidily on the back nine to give himself a great wedding present two months early! Stenson was our top ranked player and despite the perfect conditions a lot of the bigger names failed to perform. Overall, we had only five of the top seventeen plus ties (5/19) in total. 

Bubba Watson (ranked 1st by Golf Predictor) won the Travelers Championship on the US PGA Tour. The 36 year old American also started quickly and also won the event for a second time. However, Bubba had to dig deep on the back nine and eventually hole a three foot putt on the last to force a play-off with Paul Casey. After both shot par at the first extra hole, Watson took the title with a birdie on the second after Casey made a complete mess of a bunker shot. Including the winner, we had only five of the top eighteen plus ties (5/19)* as the US Open hangover affected the bigger names here too.


*Knox withdrew, thus promoting Donald to the top nineteen in the GP Ranking.

DFS (DraftKings) Charts added to Golf Predictor

DFS value chart for 2015 Travelers Championship. Golfers above the line are good value while those below are poor value.

Zoom in of  selected orange region in first screenshot. Note the coloured text on top changes to reflect your selection.

Further to the recent post on the addition of DFS golf information to Golf Predictor, I am pleased to announce 11 new DraftKings related charts on the Rankings (DFS) and Prediction Data pages. The new charts added are:

1. DraftKings Salary for a golfer over the current GP season
2. DraftKings Rank for a golfer over the current GP season
3. DraftKings Average Points per Game for a golfer over the current GP season
4. DraftKings Dollars per Point for a golfer over the current GP season
5. Highest DraftKings Salaries in a tournament field
6. Lowest DraftKings Salaries in a tournament field
7. Highest DraftKings Average Points per Game in a tournament field
8. Lowest DraftKings Average Points per Game in a tournament field
9. Best DraftKings Dollars per Point in a tournament field
10. Worst DraftKings Dollars per Point in a tournament field
11. Field DraftKings Dollars per Point in a tournament field

The first four charts above are on the new DFS rows in the Prediction Data page for each golfer and show the progression of each metric through the current GP season. The seven remaining charts are on the Rankings (DFS) page and pick out the best/worst golfers for each metric in the tournament field. Note that the DraftKings data only started in Golf Predictor last week for the US Open. Also, rank and salary for a tournament are equivalent, since the highest rank (1) is the highest salary and so on.

The first ten charts are familiar bar and line charts, but I'm particularly proud of the last chart listed above! This field Dollars per Point chart is a combined scatter/line plot and it shows value in the tournament at a glance. It is basically a visualisation of the colour coded dollars/point column on the Rankings (DFS) page and can be seen in the screenshot above for the 2015 Travelers Championship. The yellow line represents the average dollars per point for the field and the green points are the dollars per point for each competing golfer. Hovering over these green points will reveal details about the golfer it represents, as shown above for Tim Clark. To spot value, all you have to do is look above the line (for golfers whose salary is low for the average points per game that they have). Conversely, those points below the line represent the poor value golfers. Golfers on or near the line have been priced about right relative to the field. Golfers with an average points per game of zero are not displayed on the chart, but are listed beneath it.

As can be seen above, the top salaried golfers tend to be overvalued on DraftKings, while most of the value is near the low end. Also, the further the point is away from the average line, the more under/overvalued the golfer is. For example, as can be seen above, Tim Clark is the most undervalued golfer for the 2015 Travelers Championship. You can also hover over the average line at the same salary as the golfer (by going straight up/down from the golfer's point until you meet the line) to see what average points per game a golfer should have for his salary if he was to priced correctly relative to the field. For Tim Clark ($6600), this corresponds to an average points per game of 47.709. As Clark actually has 73.833 average points per game, he is significantly undervalued.

As if all that wasn't great enough, this new chart is also zoomable! Because of the large number of points that can be very close, I have (after a long battle!) added a zoom feature to the chart. You can simply select an area of the chart with your pointing device to zoom in to see the points of interest better. To reset the chart to its initial state, simply double click the chart - it's that easy! This zoom effect is shown in the two screenshots above. If you select the orange region in the initial chart (first screenshot), you will see the second screenshot. You can keep zooming in, if necessary, to see two or more very close points separate. Note that the first screenshot is a  composite as you can't hover over a point and select a zoom region at the same time! I think this is one of the best charts on Golf Predictor, even if it only useful if you are a DFS golf player!

These charts bring the total number of charts on the site to 380. Only subscribers can view these new DFS charts, so sign up today and reap the full benefits of Golf Predictor, the premium professional golf statistics site.

2015 - Week 25 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions and statistics for this week, the Travelers Championship (US PGA Tour) and the BMW International Open (European PGA Tour), are now available on Golf Predictor. After the excitement of the US Open, it's back to the grind! Fairly unusually for a week after a major, there are a fair number of the top protagonists from Chambers Bay teeing it up this week. No Jordan Spieth, but the US tournament in particular has an impressive line up. The European event also has a few names that featured in the second major of the year making the long trip from Washington state to Germany to compete.

2015 - Week 24 Winner

Jordan Spieth (ranked 3rd by Golf Predictor) won the US Open on the European/US PGA Tour. The 21 year old American won his second major of the year (and his short career!) by a single shot after Dustin Johnson handed him the title. After doubling the short penultimate hole, Spieth birdied the par five final hole at the much derided Chambers Bay to post five under for the championship. Coming up behind him, Johnson hit two wonderful shots to thirteen feet, but proceeded to three putt. Two putts would have meant a play-off and one putt the title, but it wasn't to be yet again for Johnson and the young Texan took the title. Our top ranked player, Rory McIlroy, put on a final day spurt, before fizzling out and finishing in tied 9th. Overall we had ten of the top eighteen plus ties (10/24) on the tricked up layout.

Google Maps Marker Information Now Linked

Screenshot taken when hovering over Jordan Spieth, showing link to his result page for the tournament on Golf Predictor

I have made a small, but useful enhancement to the pop-up markers on the Google Maps pages on Golf Predictor. The markers on these two pages, one for all the tournaments in a season on the selected tour and one for all the tournaments in a season for a selected golfer, now link to the relevant pages on Golf Predictor, instead of being simple text (basically, all the coloured text on the markers are now links). For example, clicking on the tournament name, course name or winner name on the Tournament Locations page will now take you to the tournament page, course page and golfer result page on the site respectively. The screenshot above shows the new marker for the 2015 US Masters, with the cursor (not shown) hovering over the winner's name. This changes the cursor to a hand and also underlines the link text, as shown above.

Similarly, on the pop-up modal window which shows a golfer's tournaments in a season on a map on the Results by Player page, you can link to the relevant pages. However, in this case, because it is in a modal window, the link destinations are opened in a new browser window/tab. In addition, the styling on modal pop-ups is different and the linked text is not underlined when you hover over it.

Just another way to make Golf Predictor a little better!

More DFS (DraftKings) Analysis added to Golf Predictor

Prediction Rankings (DFS) page with updated columns and colour code table. The field average dollars per point is also shown at the top

Updated general panel of Prediction Page for Rory McIlroy with extra new DFS golf information

Further to the recent post on the addition of DFS golf information to Golf Predictor, I am pleased to announce more new DraftKings analysis on the new Rankings (DFS) page.

As can be seen in the first screenshot above, again for the 2015 US Open, the columns have been changed, including the addition of a second colour coded one. As a result, the colour code table has been updated to account for this. In addition, the average dollars per point for for the field has been added above the chart links.

DFS columns for the average points per game (previously displayed on a pop-up) and the colour coded dollars per point have been added to the page. The latter is simply the golfer's DFS salary divided by his average points per game, i.e. the last column is equal to the third last column divided by the second last column. It is a measure of the golfer's value for money: golfers with a low value in this column are undervalued by DraftKings and those overvalued will have a high value. This column has been colour coded by comparing each golfer's value with the field average (shown on a label on the top of screenshot one above). If a golfer's value is in green, he is undervalued, while if he is overvalued it will be in red. The more under/over valued the golfer, the deeper the colour. Golfers around the average field value are coloured yellow/gold. Note that the weather and similar length course columns have been removed to make way for these new DraftKings columns. They are still available on the Predictions (Odds) page, if needed.

For tournaments with this new DFS information, a second new row has been added with the same information to the General panel on the 'Prediction Data' page for each golfer. This is shown in the second screenshot above, again for Rory McIlroy for the 2015 US Open. On this page, the average points per game is now shown directly (previously displayed on a pop-up) along with the new dollars per point. The pop-up box has been moved to this new field and it displays the field average for this metric for comparison purposes.

This makes the new premium DFS Golf features even more useful. Any feedback (via comments on this article or email) would be most welcome. Like other premium features, non-subscribers can only see this new DFS golf analysis for golfers ranked 11-25 in the prediction rankings. Therefore, sign up today and reap the full benefits of Golf Predictor, the premium professional golf statistics site.

DFS (DraftKings) Comparison added to Golf Predictor

 New Prediction Rankings (DFS) page for the 2015 US Open with colour coded DFS Salary column & new DFS Rank column

General panel of Prediction Data Page for Rory McIlroy for the same tournament showing new row with DFS golf information

GP video tutorial on this new page

Similar to the recent Bookie Comparison feature, I am pleased to announce the addition of DFS (Daily Fantasy Sports) functionality to Golf Predictor. This new feature was suggested by a user and is available from the new Rankings (DFS) page on the Predictions menu. It is a visual comparison of the GP rankings with the DFS golf salaries/rankings for a tournament, where the DFS golf information is sourced from DraftKings, currently the biggest name in DFS golf. In addition, DraftKings make their salary information available via a downloadable CSV file, which makes my job easier! DFS golf is exploding in popularity, so I was only to happy to add some useful functionality to Golf Predictor to cater for this growing market.

As can be seen in the first screenshot above (yes, I know you can see some stats for free!!) for the 2015 US Open, the new Rankings (DFS) page has a DFS Rank ("D Rk") column and a Salary ("Sal($)") column which is colour coded. Undervalued golfers are shown in green, with deeper shades representing better value. Similarly, overvalued golfers are shown in red,with deeper shades representing worse value. Golfers ranked about right by DraftKings (according to Golf Predictor!) are shown in yellow/gold. Hovering over the salary column will show the average points per game by the selected golfer.

For tournaments with this new DFS information, a new row has been added with the same information to the General panel on the 'Prediction Data' page for each golfer. This is shown in the second screenshot above for Rory McIlroy, also for the 2015 US Open. On this page, the DFS rank and DFS salary are shown directly and the average points per game is again shown in a pop-up box.

 Some notes on this new metric:

1. If a golfer is not matched (i.e. DraftKings do not have him listed for the tournament), his DFS rank will default to 500. This allows for better sorting of that column in the table.
2. If the golfer is not matched, the DFS panel row in the Prediction Data page is hidden for that golfer.
3. I plan to leave the DFS information in the system until the end of the GP season, after which it will be deleted and replaced with the data from the new season.
4. Further to the above point, I hope to add several new DFS charts shortly, which will show things like a golfer's DraftKings salary over the course of the season. In order to have this functionality ready for the US Open, there wasn't time to include them at this point. Also, I have currently only one week of DraftKings data so there isn't enough to chart salary trends yet!
5. This DFS information is only available for US PGA Tour events from the 2015 US Open on. On Golf Predictor, this corresponds to tournaments with a Tour value of "US" or "Both".
6. Further to the above point, all matching tournaments for the current season with this DFS information are automatically shown in the Tournaments dropdown list, regardless of whether it is a US only event or is on both tours.
7. Due to the above points, you can not change the tour or season dropdown values on this new Rankings (DFS) page. It will always just show the current season US PGA Tour events, so there is no need to change them (unless DraftKings starts covering European events!)! They are there for display purposes only.
8. DFS stats are calculated based on the wraparound US PGA Tour season, while Golf Predictor season stats are calculated based on the GP Season (calendar year).
9. This functionality works by comparing the DFS rank with the GP rank. Golfers with a higher GP rank than bookie rank are considered undervalued and vice versa.
10. As this functionality increases my weekly workload, it may or not be available for some or all future tournaments. If enough people find it useful, I'll do it for as many tournaments as possible. Otherwise, I may just do it for the bigger events.
11. When available, the DFS comparison will appear on the Monday or Tuesday of the tournament week, depending on the availability of the DraftKings information.
12. A colour code table is displayed on the new Rankings (DFS) page, as shown in the first screenshot above. 
13. I have added affiliate links to DraftKings on the site and on this post, so please use them if you are thinking of signing up to their site.
14. You may have to refresh a golfer Prediction Data page to see the changes. 

I trust you will find this new premium DFS Golf feature useful. Any feedback (via comments on this article or email) would be most welcome. Like other premium features, non-subscribers can only see this DFS golf comparison information for golfers ranked 11-25 in the prediction rankings. Therefore, sign up today and reap the full benefits of Golf Predictor, the premium professional golf statistics site.

2015 - Week 24 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions and statistics for this week, the US Open (European/US PGA Tour) are now available on Golf Predictor. The excitement is mounting for the second major of the season at the relatively new and relatively controversial Chambers Bay! The par 70 layout will be very long and tricky, with very fast and bumpy greens, by all accounts. All eyes will be on the recently misfiring Rory McIlroy and the even more misfiring Tiger Woods to see if they can turn their form around.

2015 - Week 23 Winners

Chris Wood (ranked 3rd by Golf Predictor) won the Lyoness Open powered by Greenfinity on the European PGA Tour. The 27 year Englishman powered home in 67 (-5) to win his second tour title by two shots. Trailing by five shots overnight, Wood took advantage of a collapse by Gregory Bourdy to take the title. Our top ranked player, Bernd Wiesberger, had an horrendous opening round of 79 and, despite a Friday rally, missed the cut. Overall, we had eight of the top sixteen plus ties (8/19) in total.

Fabian Gomez (ranked 73rd by Golf Predictor) won the FedEx St. Jude Classic on the US PGA Tour. The 36 year old Argentinian won his first tour title with an impressive display on Sunday. Gomez plotted his way around the tricky layout and sealed his victory with a long birdie on the last to win by four. Our top ranked player, Dustin Johnson, withdrew halfway through his first round due to illness. A lot of the bigger names failed to perform and we only had five of the top eighteen plus ties (5/21).

Golf Predictor Public Pages Go Responsive!

Before and after view of the GP homepage as shown on a small device (width 320px)

The entire section of Golf Predictor viewable to the public has gone responsive. This includes the home page for the site and all pages which link off it, e.g. Links and About Us pages. This means that these pages will now display better on screens of all sizes, from large monitors down to mobile phones.

Before now, these pages would only display properly on screens with a minimum width of about 800 pixels, but now they adapt to much smaller screen sizes (to a minimum of 320 pixels, which corresponds to an iPhone 4 screen in portrait mode, for example). This was done primarily to provide a better experience for users of mobile devices. However, with Google Search now penalising non-responsive web sites, I finally got the impetus to do it! The results can be seen in the screenshot above, which shows the homepage on a device 320 pixels wide. The old homepage is shown on the left and is truncated, with users having to swipe/scroll to see all the page. On the right, the new responsive homepage is shown, with the content resizing to fit the screen. Note that the two menus are replaced by the so called "hamburger" icons, which provide a dropdown menu when clicked on smaller devices.

Some notes on this new responsiveness:

1. Despite the fact that the site looks the same as before on larger devices (e.g. computer monitors), a lot of niggly CSS work had to be done to get it to scale down to the smaller devices!
2. With the plethora of mobile devices of varying sizes, it is not possible to cater for or test on them all. I have tested the site on a computer, an iPhone 4, a 2012 Nexus 7 and a Galaxy Note 4.
3. There is a viewport bug on older versions of iOS which doesn't scale the device properly when you change from portrait to landscape. I have taken steps to minimise this, but when you go back to portrait, you may have to adjust the page slightly with a swipe.
4. The site displays better on FireFox than Chrome on the Nexus 7 with Android Lollipop 5.1.1. On Chrome, the top menu "hamburger icon" is not positioned properly. I have therefore retained the two menus, with the login/register links appearing in both.
5. Interestingly, the site looks and behaves great on both FireFox and Chrome on the Note 4 with an earlier version of Lollipop (5.0.1). 
6. The normal menus appear in landscape mode on the Nexus 7. However, the mobile menus still appear on the Note 4 in landscape mode, despite its size!

Overall, this improves the appearance of the public facing pages across all devices. There are currently no plans to extend this responsiveness to the member section of the site. This is mainly due to the difficulty in displaying the stats tables and panels on smaller screens. The public facing pages are mostly text with some images, which are easier to make responsive. Therefore, it is still recommended to use a larger screened device (and a PC in particular!) to use Golf Predictor.

2015 - Week 23 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions and statistics for this week, the Lyoness Open powered by Greenfinity (European PGA Tour) and the FedEx St. Jude Classic (US PGA Tour), are now available on Golf Predictor. Although it's the last chance for a tune up before the US Open, there aren't many of the top golfers playing this week. Dustin Johnson and Phil Mickelson are probably the biggest stars teeing it up in Memphis, while local favourite Bernd Wiesberger is the only member of the world's top fifty playing in Austria.

2015 - Week 22 Winners

Alexander Noren (ranked 7th by Golf Predictor) won the Nordea Masters on the European PGA Tour. The 32 year old Swede delighted the home crowd by winning his fourth tour title and his second on home soil. The 2011 champion prevailed with an impressive final day performance in the difficult windy conditions. Leading overnight, Noren started out with a birdie and a bogey before parring every hole until the last. He then sealed the victory in style with a closing bogey for a comfortable four shot win. Our top ranked player, Henrik Stenson, finished in 13th and we had six of the top thirteen plus ties (6/20). 

In a great day for Sweden, David Lingmerth (ranked 103rd by Golf Predictor) won the Memorial Tournament pres. by Nationwide Insurance on the US PGA Tour. The 27 year old Swede won his maiden tour title in a play-off against Justin Rose at Muirfield Village. After both had finished on -15, the pair were inseparable after two visits to the tough eighteenth hole. However, the Swede prevailed on the third extra hole with a par after Rose hit spectators for the second time in an hour. It was another abject performance by former champion Tiger Woods, who slumped to a career worst 85 (+13) in round three and finished a whopping eight shots adrift of the field that made the cut. Our top ranked player, Justin Spieth, finished in tied 3rd after a great finish. Overall, we had eleven of the top eighteen plus ties (11/23).

2015 - Week 22 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions and statistics for this week, the Nordea Masters (European PGA Tour) and the Memorial Tournament pres. by Nationwide Insurance (US PGA Tour), are now available on Golf Predictor. As usual, there's a strong field for Jack's tournament, with twelve of the world's top twenty teeing it up in Ohio. Tiger Woods is also playing, but his stock has fallen so much, he doesn't even make the first page of the predictions stats! Meanwhile, the field in Sweden is nowhere near as strong, with local favourite Henrik Stenson the marquee name in the event.