New Golfer Streaks Added To Golf Predictor

Snapshot of new Rankings (Streaks) page, showing new steak data (TS & RS columns) and associated chart links

New Streaks panel on the Prediction Data page for Jason Day ahead of the 2016 WGC - Dell Match Play

I am pleased to announce the addition of useful new Tournament Streak and Rest Steak stats to Golf Predictor. The former shows how many consecutive tournaments each golfer in the field has played in the current season before the current event. Thus, it can be used as an indication of how fresh or tired each entrant might be on tournament week. Rest Streak is a related stat and shows how many weeks each golfer has had off since playing their last event in the current season. Obviously, one of these numbers always has to be zero for each golfer, after their first event of the season.

To facilitate these two news streaks, I have made several changes to Golf Predictor:

1. I have created a new Rankings (Streaks) page in the Predictions menu that shows these new stats in columns, along with the existing cut streak and winless streak stats and charts. A snapshot of this new page is shown in the first screenshot above for the 2016 WGC - Dell Match Play.
2. I have replaced the cut streak and winless streak columns on the main Rankings page with the Similar Weather and Similar Tournaments columns. The streak columns and charts have also been removed from the Rankings (Odds) page.
3. I have created a new Streaks panel on the Prediction Data page for each golfer. The winless and cut streaks have been moved from the General panel to this new panel and the two new streaks have been added to it. This new panel can be seen in the second screenshot above for Jason Day ahead of the 2016 WGC - Dell Match Play. 
4. The last tournament played in the current GP Season by the golfer is now also displayed in the new Streaks panel. This is shown for all golfers even for tournaments before these new streaks are available for and can be seen at the bottom of the panel in the second screenshot above.

It will now be easy to see who has had the longest/shortest break/run of tournaments using this new Rankings (Streaks) page. Both new streak columns are fully sortable and you can also see the best and worst using the four new charts added to the page:

1. Shortest rest streaks in the field
2. Longest rest streaks in the field
3. Shortest tournament streaks in the field
4. Longest tournament streaks in the field

These new chart links can be seen in the first screenshot above. This brings the total number of charts on the site to 463. Some notes on these new stats:

1. To keep things simple, GP Weeks are used to count these streaks during the season. These will usually be equal to calendar weeks, except for weeks where there are no individual tournaments at all on either major tour, e.g. Ryder Cup week.
2. Withdrawals are not counted unless the golfer finished at least one stroke play round before pulling out.
3. Only individual tournaments on the two major tours that are covered by Golf Predictor* will contribute to these streaks. Other events that the golfer may play, e.g on another tour, such as the Web.com Tour or as a team (e.g. Ryder Cup), will not be counted.
4. Non-stroke play (i.e. match play and Stableford) tournaments that the golfers withdrew from having played one round are not counted for these new streaks. This is because rounds are only tracked for stroke play events on Golf Predictor. However, this is a rare scenario, so it shouldn't be an issue.
5. Golfers playing their first events of the season will be assigned a value of "n/a" for these streaks.
6. The tournament streak information is now factored in to the GP algorithm, with longer streaks being penalised due to possible tiredness. Rest streak was already factored into the algorithm in a similar fashion to account for possible rustiness.
7. These new streaks (and associated charts) are not available prior to week 12, 2016 (the week of the WGC - Dell Match Play and Puerto Rico Open at Coco Beach). 
8. You may have to refresh an updated page to see the changes. 
9. These four new charts will not be available until week four of any future GP season. Since these new streaks are based on season results, it doesn't make much sense to start charting until these stats start to matter!

I trust you will find these new streak stats useful for your tournament analysis. Any feedback (via comments on this article or email) would be most welcome. Like the other prediction data, non-subscribers can only see these new streak stats for golfers ranked 11-25 in the prediction rankings and will not be able to see the new charts. Therefore, sign up today and reap the full benefits of Golf Predictor, the premium professional golf statistics site.

*GP covers all such tournaments except the small fielded junket near the end of the year that is Tiger's tournament! 

2016 - Week 13 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions and statistics for this week, the Shell Houston Open (US PGA Tour), are now available on Golf Predictor. It's the final tune-up for the Masters and there's a strong field in Houston, where the course is set up like Augusta as usual. Nine of the top twenty in the world are teeing it up and it looks like they will have to contend with difficult conditions as the weather in Texas is promised somewhat damp and windy this week.

There is no event on the European PGA Tour this week. 

2016 - Week 12 Winners

Jason Day (ranked 1st by Golf Predictor) won the WGC - Dell Match Play Championship on the European/US PGA Tour. The 28 year old Australian secured his second tournament in a row and second WGC-Match Play title in three years with a 5&4 win over Louis Oosthuizen in the final. Day overcame an injury scare with his back on the opening day and played some great (if slow!) golf to take the victory in Austin, Texas. Day had reclaimed the number one spot in the world rankings by making the semifinals, but went on to cement his position as top dog by taking the title. Rafa Cabrera Bello defeated defending champion Rory McIlroy in the third place play-off. Last last year, a surprising number of the bigger names exited after the round robin stage. 

Tony Finau (ranked 11th by Golf Predictor) won the Puerto Rico Open at Coco Beach on the US PGA Tour. The 26 year old American finally won his first tour title in windy Puerto Rico in a play-off with Steve Marino. Both players were vying for their first tour win, but it was Finau who completed his incredible journey to the top of the game with a birdie on the third extra hole. Our top ranked player, George Coetzee, finished in tied 35th and in this usually difficult to predict event, we had ten of the top twenty one plus ties (10/25).

2016 - Week 12 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions/statistics for this week, the WGC - Dell Match Play Championship (European/US PGA Tour) and the Puerto Rico Open at Coco Beach (US PGA Tour) are now available on Golf Predictor. Although Golf Predictor is designed primarily for stroke play events, like previous seasons, the WGC - Dell Match Play Championship has been put through the prediction engine. It's on a new course in Texas and a new spot in the calendar this year, which won't make predicting the outcome any easier! As usual, there's a second string line up for the Puerto Rico event as all the big names are playing in Austin. However, having said that, a few bigger names than usual, including Ian Poulter, Luke Donald and Tony Finau, are currently in the field.

2016 - Week 11 Winners

S.S.P. Chawrasia (ranked 38th by Golf Predictor) won the Hero Indian Open on the European PGA Tour. The 37 year old Indian finally won his home open after four runners up finishes by reversing last year's result. Chawrasia held his nerve down the stretch to continue his fine record at the course (mostly on the Asian Tour!) and consign last year's winner Anirban Lahiri to a share of second place. Our top ranked player, Joost Luiten, missed the cut and we had only nine of the top twenty three plus ties (9/26*) in an event with a poor field.

Jason Day (ranked 3rd by Golf Predictor) won the Arnold Palmer Invitational pres. by Mastercard on the US PGA Tour. The 28 year old Australian won his eighth tour title with a wire to wire victory at Bay Hill. Day didn't have it all his own way however and had to negotiate a tricky up and down from sand on the difficult finishing hole to pip Kevin Chappell. Our top ranked player, Rory McIlroy, finished in tied 27th, with a topsy turvy display of a poor round followed by a good one over the four days. Overall, we had eight of the top seventeen plus ties (8/19). 


*Rumford didn't play, so Que is promoted to the top 26 in the GP Rankings.

DFS Page Updated with Fair Salary on Golf Predictor

DFS page for the 2016 Valspar Championship with new Fair Salary Column

I am pleased to announce the addition of another column to the DFS page on Golf Predictor. This new "Fair Salary" column is related to the existing DFS information on the site and should help to emphasise the good/bad value golfers. This new column is shown above for the 2016 Valspar Championship (header highlighted in yellow) with the abbreviated header text of "Sal(F)".

This new column shows what the DraftKings salary should be for each golfer, based on the average dollars per point for the field. Overvalued golfers whose dollars/point column is highlighted in red will have fair values less than their actual salaries. Those whose dollars/point column is green (undervalued) will have fair values greater than their actual salaries. Finally, golfers whose dollars/point column is yellow (salary about right) will have fair values very similar to their actual salaries.

Essentially, this "fair" salary is the numbers highlighted in red in the image above (the average dollars per point for the field and the average points per game for the golfer) multiplied together and rounded to the nearest 100 (like DraftKings!). If all golfers in the field had these "fair" values, the DFS scatter chart on Golf Predictor (see image below) would have all the golfer points on the average line*.

Stenson on DFS chart for the 2016 Valspar Championship, showing where his ave points/game hits the average line (his "fair" value)

With respect to the DFS scatter chart, this new column on the DFS page shows the value where the golfer's average points per game value hits the average line. This will always be a horizontal movement from the golfer's data point and is shown above with the red arrow for Henrik Stenson ahead of the 2016 Valspar Championship. I trust you will find this new column useful for identifying value DFS picks. Just another way to make Golf Predictor a little better!


*The rounding to the nearest 100 means that this would not be exactly true!

2016 - Week 11 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions and statistics for this week, the Hero Indian Open (European PGA Tour) and the Arnold Palmer   Invitational pres. by Mastercard (US PGA Tour), are   now  available on Golf Predictor. As usual, there's a strong field with five of the top ten in the world  in Orlando for Arnie's tournament. Meanwhile, the  European PGA Tour returns to India with a slightly stronger field than last year. The number of top 100 golfers in the world competing has doubled to six, so it  promises to be less of a lottery this time. Note that as Golf Predictor does not  track the Asian Tour, the tournament/course history of the Asian tour  players is
not taken into account.Golf Predictor blog feed.

2016 - Week 10 Winners

Scott Hend (ranked 53rd by Golf Predictor) won the True Thailand Classic pres. by Chang on the European PGA Tour. The 42 year old Australian won his second tour title with a one shot victory over Piya Swangarunporn. After the Thai player had finished with a brilliant course record 63 (-9), Hend held his nerve to overtake him on the seventeenth and win with a comfortable three putt  par on the final hole. The victory exorcised Hend's demons after his close call last year and his poor performance at Doral last week. Home favourite and our top ranked player, Thongchai Jaidee, finished in tied 14th and we had ten of the top nineteen plus ties (10/24).

Charl Schwartzel (ranked 12th by Golf Predictor) won the Valspar Championship on the US PGA Tour. The 31 year old South African finally won a regular PGA Tour event in a play-off with Bill Haas. Despite leading for most of the day, Haas fell into a tie with the fast finishing Schwartzel after a bogey on the sixteenth. After a valiant attempt to win on the 72nd hole, the American got out of position off the tee on the first extra hole. Schwartzel sowed up the victory with a par after Haas failed to get up and down from a green side bunker. Our top ranked player, defending champion Jordan Spieth, had another lacklustre week, bust still finished in tied 18th. Overall, we had eight of the top eighteen plus ties (8/21).

Site Code Upgrade Complete & Other Tweaks

Further to this recent post, I am finally finished updating the code on all the pages in the member section of Golf Predictor. Including the menu pages, data pages, chart pages and other miscellaneous pages, this amounted to appropriately 150 different pages on the site.

In addition, I have also made the following changes to increase the performance of the site:

1. I have consolidated the number of style sheets used in the public facing and member sections of the site. This should increase performance by reducing the number of HTTP requests to display pages.
2. I have replaced some JavaScript files with the minimised versions to optimise loading times.
3. Where possible, I have moved the loading of JavaScript files to the bottom of pages to minimise the impact on page loading.
4. I have removed the AddThis social media functionality from the site home page, due to the surprisingly large size of the JavaScript file that it downloads from the AddThis website. The links to the Golf Predictor social media remain as simple links, but there are currently no "Like" buttons. These impact on the time taken to load the home page, no matter how they are implemented, so they are unlikely to return.

All these changes modernise the mark up used on the site and will make the site perform better, particularly for first time visitors (files/pages should be cached thereafter!). I have tested the pages as they were being updated and after the style sheet consolidation, but please contact me immediately if you experience any layout problems on the site. Just another way to make Golf Predictor even better!

2016 - Week 10 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions and statistics for this week, the True Thailand Classic pres. by Chang (European PGA Tour) and the Valspar Championship (US PGA Tour) are now available on Golf Predictor. As the build up to Augusta continues, five of the top twelve in the world rankings are teeing it up in Florida, including world number one, Jordan Spieth. Meanwhile, the European PGA Tour returns to Thailand this week and local hero Thongchai Jaidee is once again one of the bigger names at the event, which has only two of the top fifty in the world playing. Jaidee is one of those, but it should be noted that he is returning from a recent illness, thus making the event even more of a lottery.

2016 - Week 9 Winners

Adam Scott (ranked 8th by Golf Predictor) won the WGC - Cadillac Championship on the European/US PGA Tour. The 35 year old Australian also won his second title in as many weeks with another impressive performance. Despite two double bogeys early on Sunday that saw him fall six behind then runaway leader Rory McIlroy, Scott showed great character to bounce back with a flurry of birdies to take the lead on the back nine. Even though he shanked from a bunker on the 16th and miraculously missed the water on the last, Scott managed to hold off Bubba Watson for a one shot victory. McIlroy was our top ranked player, and the usually great frontrunner will be disappointed with his tied third finish after leading the field by four shots early on Sunday. Overall, we had twelve of the top seventeen plus ties (12/22).

There was no other event on either major tour this week.

2016 - Week 9 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions/statistics for this week, the WGC - Cadillac Championship (European/US PGA Tour), are now available on Golf Predictor. Just the one event this week and all eyes will be on Doral this week to see if presidential hopeful and course owner The Donald will turn up as usual to watch the action. If he does, he'll have the usual strong field to rant at, as forty seven of the top fifty in the world rankings will be teeing it up at his Trump National Doral!