Golf Predictor is Back Online!

After an absence of well over a year, you may have noticed that Golf Predictor is back on-line! I have never stopped using the system myself in the interim to make money off my bookie. While hosting it on a local machine has its benefits (mainly cost!), I have decided to put it back on-line for resiliency reasons. It has been updated to a later version of the .NET framework and moved to a new host, which so far, seems a lot better than the old one!

However, at this point in time, I have no plans to open it up to the public again. However if you are interested in using it (again), contact me via the email on the site Contact Us page and I will consider it.

Check out GolfForcast for Free

I’ve been speaking with Jim, the brains behind GolfForecast, and he’s giving Golf Predictor users/followers a free trial for a month to try their service.  

 

GolfForecast.co.uk is a cutting edge golf data analysis platform, primarily used for betting tips. They use modern data science and machine learning algorithms to make predictions and forecast results of upcoming golf events. They then compare these forecasts with the odds available from bookmakers and thus determine who to bet on and how much to bet in order to maximise the chances of making profit.

Key Features

GolfForecast has some really powerful features to really give you an edge, including:

1. Betting market analysis

This is a super valuable feature and is worth the subscription alone, I don’t know of anyone else offering this kind of thing. Firstly they compare all the bookies odds and each way terms (on oddschecker.com) and then calculate which odds and terms are best for each player. Below Paddy Power are offering the best odds and terms for Billy Horschel. The column ‘Normalised’ shows the odds you should get for Billy if the market was fair (bookies give you worse odds than they should so that they can make money), this is useful for comparing with the odds available on exchanges like Betfair. 

 

They also compare bookies as a whole to find the value in the market, shown by the highlighted number. This number changes based on the prestige of the event, majors usually have a really low overround of maybe just 1% whereas small European Tour events can have overrounds of 20% or more. If this number were ever negative you could bet on every golfer, with the best bookie, and be guaranteed to make money. They also show you which bookies are best for each event.

 

 

2. Stake optimisation and personalisation

They customise advised stakes to your bank roll. You enter how much you want to stake per event and then they divide this amount amongst the players tipped as their algorithm sees as optimal.

 

3. Choice of algorithm

Basically they’ve got two algorithms: one for maximising your return on investment and one that balances this with maximising strike rate. They recommend using the second one for reasons explained here.

Sign up for the exclusive free trial.

Golf Predictor to Wind Down

It is with a heavy heart that I am announcing the cessation of Golf Predictor as a public enterprise at the conclusion of the 2020 GP season (calendar year). In more than twelve years of assiduously producing statistics for European and US PGA Tour events for the public, I have processed:

1. 209,846 tournament result records (from 1556 tournaments) since 2003.
2. 151,658 tournament field stats (aka prediction) records (from 1094 tournaments) since 2008.
   
3. 6,360 golfers.

Unfortunately the time has come to call it a day. It had to happen sometime and the difficult decision to end this labour of love has been arrived at due to the following reasons:

 

1. Like myself, the technology behind Golf Predictor is ageing! While, it was the latest and greatest back in 2007 when I started the project, the technology is now somewhat out of date. Unfortunately, I have neither the time nor inclination to rewrite the entire site using the latest technology (see following points).
2. My main hope for Golf Predictor was to make a living from it and to be able to devote my time full-time to it. Unfortunately, that never came to pass and I had to develop and run the site in my spare time, while maintaining a day job to pay the bills. This is not feasible in the long term, now that my personal circumstances have changed.
3. While I developed a complex website with many great stats and features, I have always struggled to get enough users to make it viable as anything more than a hobby. This is true (and personally very disappointing!) even in the past year when I made the site free for all users. Unfortunately, this makes both the current site and an entire site rewrite unviable.
   
4. I can honestly say that I enjoyed every single minute of what must be thousands of hours spent on developing and enhancing Golf Predictor over the years. However, the ongoing weekly tasks have become a grind in recent times as more and more data has been imported into the site. On a typical week with two tournaments, I now have to source, process and import up to fifteen data feeds all on my own time.
   
5. There is an almost year round weekly commitment to running Golf Predictor, which can be difficult. I haven't missed a single week of producing stats in over twelve years, which amounts to all 1092 events on both major tours from the 2008 Masters on. This task was carried out even when ill, on holidays, during family funerals and even my own wedding and honeymoon! During the Coronavirus lock down earlier this year, I enjoyed the absence of the weekly grind and this probably influenced my decision to call it quits now.
6. Despite my best efforts and producing what I think is a good quality golf feed with over 40,000 posts, I have failed to build up a significant enough social media presence to possibly make the entire enterprise viable.
   
7. Since the first major I covered was the 2008 Masters, it's only fitting that the last major I covered was the 2020 Masters!
8. The end of the GP Season (calendar year) is the most logical time to stop.
   

 

I'd like to thank sincerely all the users of the site down through the years, in particular all the subscribers in the first eleven years and the generous donors in the last year of operation. All unused portions of donations will be returned in due course and I have disabled the log in and registration pages on the site.

 

I hope those few of you that registered or subscribed/donated found Golf Predictor useful over the years - I certainly did. Using the site to pick golfers (normally in the 40/1 to 80/1 range), I managed to make money long-term from the bookies, something that is not easy to do. I was delighted to finish on a high note with a 60/1 Antoine Rozner win the other week in Dubai. However, at the small stakes I bet at, this betting wouldn't fund my retirement either!

Now, if anyone is interested in purchasing a catchy domain name, an ageing website or a quality database of all the results* on the European and US PGA Tours since 2003, please let me know via the Contact GP page!

 

So long, and thanks for all the fish. 😀

*I also have a large amount of world ranking, strokes gained, bookmaker odds and DraftKings data!

2020 Golf Predictor Betting/Tipping Summary

Another golf year has finished and it's time to report on the 2020 Golf Predictor bets/tips. It was a strange year due to the Coronavirus, which meant a lengthy lay off period, followed by many rearranged and new tournaments. This did not make the job of backing golfers any easier, but I am delighted to report that despite an horrendous first two thirds to the year, I was able to finish very strongly to record a modest profit. The distribution of my winning bets (places/outright wins) during the year is shown below:

2020 bets - Winning bets (Places/Wins)

 

This clearly shows the aforementioned brutal period up until September and solid finish there after. A similar chart below shows the  amount won with the winning bets over the full year:

 

2020 bets - Winning bets (Units won)

 

Based on a one unit each way bet in each case, the basic stats for my year of betting/tipping are as follows:

 

Bets:	158
Outright Wins	2	Catlin, Ireland (40/1), Rozner, Dubai (60/1)
Places	22	15 full, 7 dead heat
Withdrew	1	Soderberg, Irish Open
Total outlay:	316
Total Win:	336.66
Profit	20.66*
Profit Margin	6.54%

 

As you can see, despite only two wins and fifteen full places (and seven more partial, or dead heat, places), I still managed to turn a profit in 2020. That is because my betting strategy of predominately backing golfers in the 40/1 to 80/1 range doesn't need a high strike rate to be profitable, as I have demonstrated this year. Picking three or four golfers per event at these odds or above only requires one golfer to place to turn a profit and the occasional win can deliver a serious return. The chart below shows the odds distribution of my bets this year:

2020 bets - Odds Distribution

 

113 (71.5%) of my bets this year were in the 40/1 to 80/1 range, with just 21 (13.3%) at prices less than that. Of those shorter than 40/1, only 2 (1.3% of total) were less than 30/1 (a couple of 28/1 shots). The remainder of my bets were long shots with the highest price being 150/1.

Interestingly, the breakdown of my wins by tour shows that I landed far more places on the US PGA Tour, but no wins. The converse is true on the European Tour, where despite a measly three places all year, I did also manage to land my two wins at decent enough odds:

2020 bets - Winning bets (Places/Wins by Tour)

That meant that I made almost the same amount off both tours in 2020, as this final chart shows:

2020 bets - Winning bets (Units won by Tour)

The profit this year means that, over the longer term, I remain significantly ahead of the bookies. My performance this year also shows the importance of being in it for the long haul. Everyone has fallow patches, but it is possible to overcome them with patience if you have a decent betting strategy.

*Notes: I stuck with one bookie for convenience. If I used an odds checking site and multiple accounts, I probably would have have increased my profit by around 15 to 20 points.

2020 - Week 50 Winner

Matthew Fitzpatrick (ranked 5th by Golf Predictor) won the DP World Tour Championship, Dubai on the European PGA Tour. The 26 year old Englishman won his sixth tour title and first for two years with a great finish in Dubai. Fitzpatrick came out of the traps quickly on Sunday with four straight birdies to spreadeagle a bunched leaderboard and was never really threatened after that. However, he was pipped to the Race to Dubai title after Lee Westwood finished one shot back in second place. Our top ranked player, Patrick Reed, didn't play well over the weekend, but still finished tied third with an incredible display of short game skills. Overall, we had a very healthy fourteen of the top twenty plus ties (14/22) in this limited field event.

 

There was no event on the US PGA Tour this week.

2020 - Week 50 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions/statistics for this week, the DP World Tour Championship, Dubai (European PGA Tour),are now available on Golf Predictor. It's the last event of the the year on the European PGA Tour and although no top Europeans like Rory McIlroy or Jon Rahm this year, there is still a decent quality field in Dubai. American major champions Patrick Reed and Collin Morikawa headline the small field for the season finale.

 

There is no event on the US PGA Tour this week.

2020 - Week 49 Winners

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (ranked 1st by Golf Predictor) won the South African Open on the European PGA Tour. The 26 year old South African won his first home open and second tour title in a row at Sun City. Leading overnight by five shots, Bezuidenhout's advantage was cut to two strokes by Jamie Donaldson after a slow start by the South African. However, a birdie burst just after the turn allowed him to steady the ship and he had regained his overnight advantage by the end. Bezuidenhout was our top ranked golfer and we had nine of the top eighteen plus ties (9/19) in total. 

 

Antoine Rozner (ranked 3th by Golf Predictor) won the Golf in Dubai Championship on the European Tour. The 27 year old Frenchman won his first tour title in a final day battle with long time leader Andy Sullivan. The rookie closed with 64 (-8) to overcome a four shot overnight deficit and win by two shots from the Englishman. That made both him and me very happy as I had backed/tipped him at 60/1! Our top ranked golfer, Bernd Wiesberger, finished in tied 8th and we had seven of the top nineteen plus ties (7/21) in this new event. 
 

Viktor Hovland (ranked 9th by Golf Predictor) won the final event of 2020 on the US PGA Tour, the Mayakoba Golf Classic. The 23 year old Norwegian American won his second tour title in the birdie fest in Mexico. On a defenceless course in mostly benign damp conditions, Hovland broke out of a crowded leaderboard with Aaron Wise on the back nine. A play-off was looking likely, but the young Norwegian managed to birdie the final hole for a one shot victory. Our top ranked golfer, Justin Thomas, finished in tied 12th and we had twelve of the top twenty plus ties (12/22) in total.

2020 - Week 49 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions and statistics for this week, the South African Open (European PGA Tour), the Golf in Dubai Championship (European PGA Tour) and the Mayakoba Golf Classic (US PGA Tour), are now available on Golf Predictor. Not much by way of top talent in either European Tour event this week, but despite Dustin Johnson's withdrawal, four of the world's top twenty are playing in Mexico. On the plus side for the European Tour, they have managed to put on another new tournament, this time as a curtain raiser to the season finale next week in Dubai. Because of that, there is a fair number of tour stalwarts teeing it up in Dubai.

 

 

2020 - Week 48 Winner

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (ranked 2nd by Golf Predictor) won the Alfred Dunhill Championship on the European PGA Tour. The 26 year old South African won his second tour title and his first on home soil with a good finish at Leopard Creek. On a tough final day in blustery conditions, Bezuidenhout steadied the ship after a poor couple of holes before the turn. He then finished strongly while others dropped shots all around him to win by four strokes in the end. Our top ranked golfer, Robert MacIntyre finished well for tied 6th and in an event that is usually difficult to predict, we had eleven of the top twenty plus ties (11/22) in total on the tough layout. 

There was no event on the US PGA Tour this week.

2020 - Week 48 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions and statistics for this week, the Alfred Dunhill Championship (European PGA Tour) are now available on Golf Predictor. Just the one event this week as the PGA Tour is taking a week off before its final event of the year next week.. Like previous years, there is a strong home presence in South Africa, where the field is pretty weak again. There is only five of the top one hundred in the world teeing it up, with home favourite Christiaan Bezuidenhout the highest ranked golfer in the field.

2020 - Week 47 Winners

Joachim B. Hansen (ranked 19th by Golf Predictor) won the Joburg Open on the European PGA Tour. The 30 year old Dane won his first tour title with an impressive display in Johannesburg. Hansen closed with a bogey free 67 to overtake home favourite, the big hitting Nico Nienaber. The tall South African had led for a long time, including by three shots at the turn. However a good back nine of three under by Hansen coupled with two closing bogeys by Nienaber meant the Dane won by two strokes. Our top ranked player, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, finished in tied 15th, despite battling jet lag from Augusta. Overall we had six of the top eighteen plus ties (6/18) in this event with a poor field.

Robert Streb (ranked 126th by Golf Predictor) won The RSM Classic on the US PGA Tour. The 33 year old American won his second PGA Tour title in a dramatic play-off in Georgia. Leading by three overnight, Streb ending up trailing Kevin Kisner with two to play. However, he managed to birdie the penultimate hole and par the last to tie Kisner after 72 holes. After the two former champions halvied the first extra hole, Streb set up a winning tap-in birdie on the next with a brilliant approach from the rough. Our top ranked player, Webb Simpson, finished in tied 37th and in an event that's usually hard to predict, we had only five of the top eighteen plus ties (5/22) in the windy conditions. 

2020 - Week 47 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions/statistics for this week, the Joburg Open (European PGA Tour) and The RSM Classic (US PGA Tour), are now available on Golf Predictor. The European PGA Tour returns to South Africa for the first running of the tournament since 2017. No huge field this year, but the lack of any big names still makes it a bit of a lottery. This year, there are only two members of the world's top one hundred teeing it up in Johannesburg. The field is considerably stronger in Georgia where several big names have popped over from Augusta to tee it up! Webb Simpson headlines the field and it will be the second last chance before January for the lesser lights to put some FedEx Cup points on the board. 

 

2020 - Week 46 Winner

Dustin Johnson (ranked 1st by Golf Predictor) won the first major of the year, The Masters (European/US PGA Tour). The 36 year old American finally won the second major his talent deserved with a great wire to wire display at Augusta. Johnson played brilliant golf on Saturday to open up a four shot lead going into the final round. Despite a nervous start when his lead was whittled briefly down to a single shot. DJ righted the ship with a birdie on the sixth. He then won at a canter, finishing with a record score on -20, five shots clear of Cameron Smith and Sungjae Im. DJ was our top ranked player and we had eleven of the top nineteen plus ties (11/22) in total in the weather affected major.

2020 - Week 46 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions and statistics for this week, The Masters (European/US PGA Tour), are now available on Golf Predictor. Only one tournament this week, but it's the big one! Excitement is mounting among golf fans ahead of what unusually is the final major of the season at Augusta. The Covid-19 pandemic has resulted in the rescheduling of The Masters to an unfamiliar timeslot. It's pretty wide open again this year with several top players showing good form ahead of the tournament. It promises to be an exciting week's golf and I, for one, will be glued to the TV!

2020 - Week 45 Winners

Robert MacIntyre (ranked 3rd by Golf Predictor) won the Aphrodite Hills Cyprus Showdown on the European PGA Tour. The 24 year old Scot built on the great start to his career with his first tour title in Cyprus. Playing the new Showdown format on the same course as last week, the scores were reset after rounds two and three for the remaining players. In the final round shoot-out, MacIntyre finished strongly with a closing nine of thirty strokes, including a near ace on the penultimate hole. That allowed him to take the title by a single shot from Masahiro Kawamura. Our top ranked player, Thomas Detry, finished in tied 4th and we had eight of the top twenty plus ties (8/23*) in this new event.     

 

Carlos Ortiz (ranked 69th by Golf Predictor) won the Vivint Houston Open on the US PGA Tour. The 29 year old Mexican won his first tour title with an impressive final day performance in Texas. Ortiz prevailed on a final day with big names such as Dustin Johnson, Hideki Matsuyama, Brooks Koepka and Jason Day all in the mix. Ortiz sealed his maiden win in style, with a closing birdie for a fine 65 to win by two shots. DJ was our top ranked player and he finished tied 2nd. Overall, we only had six of the top fifteen plus ties (6/19) in an event held on a tough new course.

 

* Due to withdrawals, Shinkwin is promoted to the top 23 of the GP Rankings.

2020 - Week 45 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions and statistics for this week, the Vivint Houston Open (US PGA Tour) and the Aphrodite Hills Cyprus Showdown (European PGA Tour) are now available on Golf Predictor. Thanks to the Coronavirus, Houston is once again the final chance of a tune-up before the Masters, so there's a few big names playing in Houston. World number one Dustin Johnson headlines the field as one of the  six of the top twenty in the world teeing it up there. Meanwhile, the European Tour stays in Cyprus for another week, where it is introducing yet another new format! The event is the first to use the new Showdown format and unsurprisingly has a similar field to last week.

2020 - Week 44 Winners

Callum Shinkwin (ranked 67th by Golf Predictor) won the Aphrodite Hills Cyprus Open on the European PGA Tour. The 27 year old Englishman won his first tour title with a play-off victory over Kalle Samooja. Shinkwin came from behind in regulation play with a great birdie-eagle to set the clubhouse target. Samooja birdied the final hole to catch him, but lost on the first extra hole after his short birdie putt lipped out. Our top ranked player, Andy Sullivan, finished very poorly for tied 58th and we had seven of the top seventeen plus ties (7/20) in this new event.    

Brian Gay (ranked 63rd by Golf Predictor) won the Bermuda Championship on the US PGA Tour. The 48 year old American overcame recent poor form to win his fifth tour title in a play-off with Wyndham Clark. Despite Clark amassing a three shot after a fast start to his the final round, he was caught by Gay after he slowed down on the back nine and Gay's putter heated up. Gay then prevailed at the first extra hole with another good putt for a winning birdie, despite being outside Clark, who couldn't match him. Our top ranked player, defending champion Brendan Todd, missed the cut and we had just six of the top sixteen plus ties (6/20) in total in this second tier, wind affected event.

Cookie Manager Added to Golf Predictor

In order to comply with EU GDPR regulations, I have added a cookie manager to Golf Predictor. This should pop up when you next visit the site and give you the option of using non-essential cookies on the site. You won't be able to block essential (necessary) cookies as they are obviously needed for the site to function. However, you can choose to block all other cookies, which pertain to website analytics and social media sites (see below for more details).

 

The cookie manager scans the site and actually revealed several cookies I wasn't aware of! These were used by the Twitter widget and mostly by the embedded YouTube video. This video is the little animation on the top of the About Golf Predictor page and it actually used many cookies. I was able to reduce the number by switching to the "nocookie" version of YouTube. However, despite its name, it doesn't actually get rid of all YouTube cookies, just some of them!

 

You can edit your cookie preferences at any time from the Privacy/Cookies page. The Cookies section of this page has been updated to show the results of the cookie scan and allow you to change your preferences. I have tested the new cookie manager on the site and everything appears to work as expected. If you notice any issues, please let me know via the Contact GP page.

2020 - Week 44 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions and statistics for this week, the Aphrodite Hills Cyprus Open (European PGA Tour) and the Bermuda Championship (US PGA Tour), are now available on Golf Predictor. The fields aren't very strong this week as the big names look to peak for Augusta in a few weeks. Defending champion Brendan Todd headlines the field in Bermuda, while Andy Sullivan is the highest world ranked golfer playing in the first new event in Cyprus.

2020 - Week 43 Winners

Ross McGowan (ranked 83rd by Golf Predictor) won the Italian Open on the European PGA Tour. The 38 year old Englishman won his second tour win with a birdie on the final green. McGowan overcame poor form to secure the title, eleven years after his first victory. McGowan trailed Laurie Canter for much of the final day, but an outrageous hole from the bunker out for birdie on the sixteenth meant he took the lead. Canter replied with a great birdie on the penultimate hole to go down the final hole all square with both McGowan and the finished Nicolas Colsaerts. McGowan poured in his twenty footer for birdie, but Canter missed from twice as close to end his chances. Our top ranked player, Lee Westwood, finished in tied 30th and we had only seven of the top sixteen plus ties (7/21).

 

Patrick Cantlay (ranked 9th by Golf Predictor) won the ZOZO Championship @ Sherwood on the US PGA Tour. The 28 year old American won his third tour title after overtaking frontrunners Justin Thomas and Jon Rahm on the back nine Sunday. After the leading duo stumbled down the stretch, Cantlay came through to win by a single shot after Rahm failed to birdie the final hole. Rahm was our top ranked player and we had thirteen of the top seventeen plus ties (13/25*) in total in this restricted field event.

 

*Due to withdrawals, Palmer & Scheffler are promoted to the top 25 of the GP Rankings.