Field Strength Metric/Charts added to Golf Predictor

Portion of new 'Tournaments with Field Strength' page showing the start of the 2011 season.

Field Strength section of Tournament page, showing new metric (2011 Players Champ.)

I am excited to announce the addition of a new "Field Strength" metric to Golf Predictor. This useful new statistic has been developed following a user inquiry and is a measure of the tournament field quality. The algorithm used to calculate this new metric depends on two main factors, namely the world ranking distribution of the field and the field size. Other points to note on this new metric include:

1. The end value is expressed as a percentage.
2. Small field sizes will have a significant effect on the end value.
3. A field strength of 100% would represent a full field (over 150) with no (or hardly any!) missing players from the top of the world rankings. e.g a field of 156 made up of all the players from the top 156 in the world rankings). Unlikely to ever happen!
4. The lowest field strength possible using this new algorithm is about 25%*. This corresponds to a field of 20 or 30 with no one in the world's top 1000. Unlikely to ever happen either!
5. Like the other world ranking statistics on Golf Predictor, this new metric is based on the entry list for each tournament. This is because world ranking information is stored only as part of a golfer prediction. This in turn is dependent on whether the golfer was in the entry list (including any alternates) or not at the time the predictions were generated.
6. Because of the above, alternates and some other golfers in the entry list may not actually play in the event. Similarly, late entrants to an event will not have a prediction record, so their rankings will not be included in this metric.
7. European PGA Tour events tend to have far more alternates than US PGA Tour events. Since alternates are usually lower ranked golfers, this can skew the field strength metric towards the low side for some European events. However, this is largely mitigated by the increased field size resulting from these alternates, which usually results in a higher field percentage.
8. The exact field for many of the bigger events (e.g. majors, FedEx Cup events and most WGC events) is known ahead of time. Thus, alternates are usually only an issue with regular tour events.
9. This metric is only available for tournaments that have been predicted by Golf Predictor. This means the last three complete seasons (2009-11) and most of the 2008 season (from The Masters on and a couple of earlier events).
10. All the predicted tournaments outlined above have been updated in the system with this new metric.
11. While the algorithm itself may be somewhat arbitrary, the relative values are an accurate reflection of the field strength i.e. the higher the end value, the better the tournament field and vice versa. 
12. This new metric is a much better indicator of field quality than the average WR of the field, which was the only statistic available hitherto now on the site to gauge field strength.

This new field strength metric reveals some interesting statistics about the relative quality of tournament fields on both the European and US PGA Tours. It has also resulted in a number of significant changes to the system:

1. There is a new 'Tournaments with Field Strength' page available from the Tournaments option ('View Options' menu). This page also shows the average field strength for the selected season/tour. This is shown in the first screenshot above, which shows the start of the 2011 season.
2.  The 'Field Strength' section of each 'Tournament Details' page has been amended to include this new metric (second screenshot above).
3. Four new charts have been added to the 'Tournament Statistics' page. The existing best and worst fields charts for each tour have been amended to use this new metric and the graphs they used to show have been renamed to 'Best/Worst Ave. WR'.
4. The existing field strength charts on the main prediction page and the 'Field Strength' section of each 'Tournament Details' page (pop-up version) have been updated to include this new metric.

These four new charts bring the total number of charts on the site to 259. However, like all the changes outlined above, these charts are only available to subscribers. So, sign up today to get the most out of Golf Predictor, the premier US and European PGA Tour statistics site.


*The reason that it would be as high as 25% is that all golfers outside the world's top 1000 are assigned the same WR of 1050 by the system. This means the standard deviation of the WR distribution would be zero, which would inflate the final percentage somewhat. This could be allowed for, but it is extremely unlikely ever to happen!

2012 - Week 4 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions and statistics for this week, the Abu Dhabi HSBC Golf Championship (European PGA Tour) and the Farmers Insurance Open (US PGA Tour) are now available on Golf Predictor. Branden Grace will be going for a hat-trick of titles this week. However, he'll be up against a much stronger field in the Middle East than he was for his last two events. Appearance money seems to be still working in that part of the world as a strong field has been assembled! Indeed, according to the useful new Golf Predictor field strength statistic, the Abu Dhabi event has the joint strongest field of any regular European PGA Tour event of the last four years*.

The European season starts in earnest as the top four in the world, six of the top ten in total and a certain Tiger Woods all tee it up in Abu Dhabi. In contrast, Torrey Pines only has one (injured!) member of the world's top ten in addition to Watney and Mickelson to headline the event. Despite that, its overall field strength is not that much worse than its European counterpart, so it should be a great week of golf on both tours!


*Golf Predictor predictions (and hence field strength stats) start with the Masters in 2008 for the European PGA Tour, so earlier events are not included in this statement.

2012 - Week 3 Winners

Branden Grace (ranked 19th by Golf Predictor) won the Volvo Golf Champions on the European PGA Tour. The 23 year old South African followed up his maiden win last week with victory on the first hole of a play-off with his more illustrious country men, Ernie Els and Retief Goosen. Our top ranked player, Charl Schwartzel, finished 5th and we had seven of the top fifteen (7/15) in the restricted field event.

Mark Wilson (ranked 24th by Golf Predictor) won the Humana Challenge in pship with the Clinton Foundation on the US PGA Tour. The early season specialist struck again with a two shot victory in the annual birdie fest in the desert! Our top ranked player, Matt Kuchar, finished in tied 22nd and we had eight of the top fourteen plus ties (8/18).

2012 - Week 3 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions and statistics for this week, the Volvo Golf Champions (European PGA Tour) and the Humana Challenge in pship with the Clinton Foundation (US PGA Tour) are now available on Golf Predictor. It's all change for the tournaments this week as the European event moves to a new continent (Asia to Africa), while the US tournament gets a new (and very long!) name and a new format (four rounds on two courses). At least that's the awkward five round event gone from the schedule! The Volvo Golf Champions event only has 35 competitors as it is the European PGA tour's answer to the Hyundai Tournament of Champions on the US PGA Tour. It only features winners from last season and golfers who have won at least ten events on the European PGA Tour in their career.

2012 - Week 2 Winners

Branden Grace (ranked 13th by Golf Predictor) won the Joburg Open on the European PGA Tour. The 23 year old South African captured his maiden title in his home country by holding off a charging Jamie Elson. Our top ranked player, Charl Schwartzel, made a rather tame effort for a hat-trick of titles by missing the cut. Overall, we had eight of the top sixteen (8/16).

In the first full field event of the 2012 US PGA Tour season, Johnson Wagner (ranked 66th by Golf Predictor) won the Sony Open in Hawaii. Sporting a new "Magnum P.I." look, the 31 year old American may have started a new facial hair trend among aspiring pros! Our top ranked player, Steve Stricker, failed to build on last week's success and finished in tied 38th. Overall, it proved a very bad week for the bigger names (and so a great week for bookies!) and we had only six of the top twenty three plus ties (6/28).

2012 - Week 2 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions and statistics for this week, the Joburg Open (European PGA Tour) and the Sony Open in Hawaii (US PGA Tour) are now available on Golf Predictor. The South African event has its usual large local contingent of unknowns among its huge field in general!. Meanwhile, the second leg of the Hawaiian swing is the first full field event on the 2012 US PGA Tour.

2012 - Week 1 Winners

In the opening event of the 2012 European PGA Tour season, Louis Oosthuizen (ranked 1st by Golf Predictor) successfully defended his Africa Open. The local favourite won by two shots with an impressive 27 under par, helped by a super 62 (-11) in the second round. Including the winner, Golf Predictor had seven of the top fourteen plus ties (7/17) for the second year running.

In the opening event of the 2012 US PGA Tour season, Steve Stricker won the Hyundai Tournament of Champions (who bothered to show up!). The 44 year old  injury plagued American got his season off to the perfect start with a victory in the restricted field event. Including the winner, Golf Predictor had eight of the top twelve plus ties (8/15) in total.

That makes it a great start to the season for Golf Predictor, where the top ranked golfers for both tournaments won. This unfortunately rare event augers well for the year ahead!

2012 - Week 2 Predictions Delayed

The predictions for this week (Sony Open and the Joburg Open) will be late due to the Monday night finish (Irish time) of the Hyundai Tournament of Champions. Of course, the results will be inputted into Golf Predictor as soon as possible. I will endeavour to produce the predictions as soon as possible on Tuesday, once the necessary statistics become available.

2012 - Week 1 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions and statistics for this week, the Africa Open (European PGA Tour) and the Hyundai Tournament of Champions (US PGA Tour) are now available on Golf Predictor. It's the first week of the new season and for probably the first time ever, both the US and the European seasons kick off on the same week. Both events show a surfeit of local talent at the top of the prediction rankings. Here's to a great 2012 season ahead!

'Compare Golfer Form' Page Added to Golf Predictor

Form Comparison for the Big Four in their Last Ten Events Prior to the 2011 European PGA Tour Season Finale in Dubai

I am delighted to announce the addition of the very useful new 'Compare Golfer Form' page to Golf Predictor. As can be seen from the screenshot above, this new page is similar in structure to the existing 'Compare Golfers' page and is available from the same menu ('Stats Analysis'). However, there are a number of differences and other points of interest:

1. The 'Compare Golfers' page compares statistics (e.g. season and historical averages), while not showing any actual results. Users have to click on the 'Prediction Data' page for each golfer in turn to see actual results. In contrast, this new page shows the last ten results for each compared golfer in the same table for easy comparison of recent form.
2. As can be seen above, there is a new drop down box to select the recent form of interest. The options are "All Tournaments", "Historical (Course/Tournament)" and Similar (Reg./Major/WGC/FedEx). Thus, you can easily compare golfer results for the last ten events in each of these important scenarios.
3. If a golfer does not have ten results since 2003, "-" is displayed in the relevant table cells.
4. The most recent tournament result is on the right hand side (T10), while the oldest is on the left (T1).
5. For better legibility and easier trend spotting, the golfer results are colour coded. The colour code is displayed above the table for your convenience.
6. As before, hovering over a player name displays more information. On this page, it displays the number of results in each category (wins/top tens/missed cuts/non-finishes) out of the (up to) ten matching results. In addition, you can hover over any result to see what tournament it was achieved in. Both these pop-ups are displayed in the composite screenshot above.
7. You can only sort by the first three columns (first name, last name and prediction rank).

Just another way to make Golf Predictor even better for the new 2012 season ahead! This new page is a terrific addition to the site and will greatly assist in choosing between golfers for an event. The screenshot above shows the form comparison (their last ten events) for the big four ahead of the 2011 European PGA Tour Season Finale. As can be seen, they had an impressive four victories and nineteen other top tens between them in their combined forty events leading up to Dubai. Indeed, three of them were coming off victories in their previous event.

Note that you may have to reload your current Golf Predictor page to see this new "Compare Form" menu option. All users can see this form comparison for golfers they can access. For subscribers, this means all golfers in the system while for non-subscribers, it means golfers ranked 11-25 in the prediction rankings. So, sign up today and reap the full benefits of Golf Predictor, the premium professional golf statistics site.