European Ryder Cup Wildcards Announced

Well, after all the hoopla of the last week or so, the wildcards for the Ryder Cup have just been announced. It seems that Ian Poulter had a hotline to Nick Faldo after all, having being named as a wildcard along with Paul Casey. While the latter was more or less expected by all commentators, many thought Darren Clarke deserved the nod for the captain's second pick. When Poulter almost unbelievably seemed to put avarice before duty by staying in the US rather than try to play his way onto the team at the last qualifying event in Europe, most thought the flamboyant English man had shot himself in the foot (again!).

However, despite not playing well since his second place finish in the British Open, Faldo decided to pick Poulter over Clarke, who didn't exactly set the course on fire at Gleneagles. Even the brave Monty managed to finish higher than Clarke, but past Ryder Cup hero Colin wasn't really ever seriously in the running this year.

Anyway, the team is now final and now let's hope the boys to the business next month at Valhalla!

European Ryder Cup Team Update

Following on from the previous article about the battle for Nick Faldo's wildcards, none of the front runners did themselves any favours yesterday. While the TPC Boston course seems to be a bit of a duck shoot with most players shooting well into the 60s (Tim Clark even had a great chance for a 59 yesterday), both Poulter and Casey lumbered to rounds in the 70s and both missed the cut. Poulter lashed out at the media for the unwelcome pressure they heaped upon him, but one wonders why he read the articles and took questions on the matter if it had such a negative effect on him.

On the other side of the pond, a similarly tetchy Monty had a hardly encouraging 76 to topple down the leaderboard while Darren Clarke continued to thread water with another even par 73. All of this does not make the decision any easier for poor old Nick!

2008 - Top 5 Easiest Courses/Tournaments on the European PGA Tour

Based on the average score in relation to par in the tournaments hosted on them, these were the 5 easiest courses on the European PGA Tour in the 2008 season:

1. Club de Campo del Mediterráneo (Castello Masters)
   
2. Castello Di Tolcinasco (Italian Open)
3. Kota Permai GC (Malaysian Open)
4. Doral Golf Resort (WGC - CA Championship)
5. Oitavos Dunes (Open de Portugal)

Interestingly, the US PGA Tour seems to have the easier tournaments by far. Of course, this may be down to the purported superior condition of US courses. You can get more detailed information by looking at the 'Lowest Average Round vs Par' chart on the 'View Options/Tourn. Stats' page (Euro Tour, 2008 Season) in the member section of Golf Predictor. Click on the "Lists" category opposite to see more such lists.

2008 - Top 5 Easiest Courses/Tournaments on the US PGA Tour

Based on the average score in relation to par in the tournaments hosted on them, these were the 5 easiest courses on the US PGA Tour in the 2008 season:

1. TPC Summerlin (Justin Timberlake Shriners Hospitals for Children Open)
2. PGA West and sister courses (Bob Hope Chrysler Classic)
3. Walt Disney Word Resort, Magnolia GC (Children's Miracle Network Classic)
4. The Plantation Course (Mercedes Benz Championship)
5. Bellerive Country Club (BMW Championship)
   

The Bob Hope was played over 4 courses and 5 days with the Classic Course also hosted the final round. You can get more detailed information by looking at the 'Lowest Average Round vs Par' chart on the 'View Options/Tourn. Stats' page (US Tour, 2008 Season) in the member section of Golf Predictor. Click on the "Lists" category opposite to see more such lists.

2008 - Top 5 Hardest Courses/Tournaments on the European PGA Tour

Based on the average score in relation to par in the tournaments hosted on them, these were the 5 toughest courses on the European PGA Tour in the 2008 season:

1. Royal Birkdale (British Open)
2. Oakland Hills (US PGA)
3. Pearl Valley (South African Airways Open)
4. Beijing CBD International (Volvo China Open)
5. Saint Omer GC (Saint Omer Open)
   

Granted, the weather played a part in some tournaments (e.g. British Open), but hopefully a useful list all the same. Unsurprisingly, it is top heavy with major tournaments. Interestingly, the 5 hardest courses span 4 continents. European tournaments appear to be slightly harder than their US counterparts, but this could be related to the weather or the purported inferior condition of the courses.

You can get more detailed information by looking at the 'Highest Average Round vs Par' chart on the 'View Options/Tourn. Stats' page (Euro Tour, 2008 Season) in the member section of Golf Predictor. Click on the "Lists" category opposite to see more such lists.

2008 - Top 5 Hardest Courses/Tournaments on the US PGA Tour

Based on the average score in relation to par in the tournaments hosted on them, these were the toughest courses on the US PGA Tour:

1. Royal Birkdale (British Open)
2. Oakland Hills (US PGA)
3. Torrey Pines (US Open)
4. TPC Southwind (Standford St. Jude)
5. Muirfield Village (Memorial)
   

Granted, the weather played a part in some tournaments (e.g. British Open), but hopefully a useful list all the same. Unsurprisingly, it is top heavy with major tournaments. You can get more detailed information by looking at the 'Highest Average Round vs Par' chart on the 'View Options/Tourn. Stats' page (US Tour, 2008 season) in the member section of Golf Predictor. Click on the "Lists" category opposite to see more such lists.

European Ryder Cup Rumour Mill

The race for Nick Faldo's wildcard picks for the European Ryder Cup team sure is getting entertaining. With allegations of guaranteed places to both Ian Poulter and Paul Casey and transatlantic sniping between Poulter and Monty, it's turning into a mini soap opera!

I can't imagine someone like Faldo would have assured anyone of their place before the last ball had been struck in Gleneagles, but stranger things have happened. He'll have to announce his picks while the 3rd round of the Deutsche Bank Championship is under way in Boston, so it will be interesting to see how Casey and Poulter are shaping up at that point in time.

It's just as well that it's unlikely that both Monty and Poulter will be picked for the team as that would lead to a pretty frosty atmosphere in the locker room! Following the war of words between the two (conducted via the press), I don't think they would do much for the famed European team spirit.

If Nick Faldo used Golf Predictor (free honorary subscription, if you're reading this, Nick!), he would know exactly which two from Poulter, Casey, Monty and Darren Clarke have been playing the best golf this season and in their last 5 events. Using the 'Compare Golfers' page on the 'Stats Analysis' menu, it is clear that Poulter and Casey are streets ahead on performance, with Casey on a rich streak of form. However, Clarke and Monty in particular have impressive Ryder Cup records, so I don't envy your decision, Nick, old chap!!

About the Overall GP Score

The overall GP (Golf Predictor) score for each golfer in a tournament is the normalised chance that s/he (the occasional woman also plays!) has of winning/playing well in the tournament. The GP score is based on the statistics available for that golfer and is computed as an easy to digest percentage. The higher this percentage, the greater the chance of that golfer winning the event.

In simple terms, a GP score of 100% would represent the top world ranked golfer in the field with perfect statistics in all the metrics used, e.g. season, last five events, in the past on the same course, in the same tournament, at similar events etc. Of course, no golfer ever wins all the relevant historical events, but a golfer who hits a rich vein of form leading up to a tournament on a course he has a great record on can certainly achieve a very high GP Score. Such golfers would obviously be very likely to perform well again in the current week. Conversely, golfers with low GP scores generally are amateurs, debutants or sponsor invites with little or no history on either major tour.

The GP score is not a pure mathematical probability. Tiger Woods playing his best could have a GP score of 90%, but even he would never have a pure 90% chance of winning in a field of 156 golfers. If all the golfers were of equal ability, the pure probability would be 1/156=0.641% for any golfer to win. In a real life tournament of 156 golfers of varying abilities, the true odds for most of the field would be difficult to digest decimals slightly bigger or smaller than 0.641%. That is the main reason the GP Score has been normalised to an easy to understand percentage. It is a valid measure of likely success and, like bookie odds, the relative difference between two GP scores is a measure of how much more likely one golfer is to perform well than the other.

Change in Historical Statistics

We have decided here at Golf Predictor to tweak the way historical tournaments (events held on the same course/at the same tournament) affect future tournament predictions. Henceforth, there will be a sliding 5 year window of historical data used (i.e. the previous five years) rather than the complete historical data in the database. This was done for 2 main reasons:

1. The further back you go, the less relevant results are. To give an extreme example, 3 time champion, the 72 year old Gary Player still plays at the Masters, but he hasn't a prayer of winning again! We reckon 5 years is a good cut off point.
2. Leading on from above, as the years go by, the processing demands will increase and Golf Predictor would possibly have to buy a Cray supercomputer to sift through the ever less relevant data!

The changes will have no effect on this year's predictions as our records begin in 2003. From next year though, the 5 year historical window will begin in 2004 and so on for future years.

2008 - Week 41 Euro Tour Prediction Re-run

We here at Golf Predictor have re-run the European prediction as it has only come to light today that a fairly highly ranked player, Ian Poulter (12), has withdrawn from the Johnnie Walker Championship at Gleneagles. He has decided to focus on the Fedex Cup and retaining his PGA Tour card. He is now at the mercy of Nick Faldo for a wildcard Ryder Cup spot. Probably not the wisest move, especially when you consider the effort Justin Rose is putting in to qualify and how well Darren Clarke is playing. He better pray Rose makes the team automatically!

Poulter was entered in to both events, so the Deutsche Bank Championship prediction is fine as is.