We have published the predictions for week 33 - the AT&T National (US) and The European Open (Europe!). The former is only in its second year while the latter has moved course (and country and sponsor!) this year, so this makes prediction a little trickier. The Booz Allen Classic was held on the same course (Congressional) as the AT&T National in 2005, so that gives us some extra data to work with there. However, we have no data for The London Club in Kent, England as it is hosting a European tour event for the first time.
Competitors who were winners of The European Open before 2003 (when Golf Predictor records commence) include Darren Clarke (2001) and Per-Ulrik Johansson (1996 & 1997). However, they won at the K Club in Ireland, so not sure if that has any relevance this week.
Monday, 30 June 2008
2008 - Week 32 Winners
Golf Predictor narrowly missed out on a hat trick of successful predictions when our second choice for the Buick Open, veteran Kenny Perry, continued his great season by winning the Buick Open. Second placed Woody Austin was our 6th ranked player while our top choice, Jim Furyk, ended up in a tie for 36th place.
The French Open has been a forecaster's nightmare in recent years with all manner of lowly ranked golfers coming through and triumphing. This year proved no exception when the young Spanish qualifier, Pablo Larrazabal, romped to victory. Showing impressive steel, the 481st ranked player in the world easily held off his pursuers in the final round, led by a resurgent Monty. He reckoned himself that he was only the 150th most likely to win the tournament before it started, but we think he was unduly harsh on himself - Golf Predictor had him ranked 136th! He never used his driver during the entire tournament, which tells you about the power of these young guns (or how wayward he is with it!).
Let's hope Montgomerie can keep his form up now and make the Ryder Cup automatically, as he isn't the best of buddies with Faldo (but then again, who is?!!). A lot of the bigger names tanked this week, but our top choice, Lee Westwood, finished in a tie for fifth place. Even the ultra consistent Robert Karlsson didn't finish in the top 3 - "only" managing a tie for 13th this time.
The French Open has been a forecaster's nightmare in recent years with all manner of lowly ranked golfers coming through and triumphing. This year proved no exception when the young Spanish qualifier, Pablo Larrazabal, romped to victory. Showing impressive steel, the 481st ranked player in the world easily held off his pursuers in the final round, led by a resurgent Monty. He reckoned himself that he was only the 150th most likely to win the tournament before it started, but we think he was unduly harsh on himself - Golf Predictor had him ranked 136th! He never used his driver during the entire tournament, which tells you about the power of these young guns (or how wayward he is with it!).
Let's hope Montgomerie can keep his form up now and make the Ryder Cup automatically, as he isn't the best of buddies with Faldo (but then again, who is?!!). A lot of the bigger names tanked this week, but our top choice, Lee Westwood, finished in a tie for fifth place. Even the ultra consistent Robert Karlsson didn't finish in the top 3 - "only" managing a tie for 13th this time.
Sunday, 29 June 2008
€200,000 British Open Competition
The Irish Sunday Tribune newspaper is offering a cool €200,000 prize to the person who can predict the top four places at this year's British Open (Royal Birkdale, July 17-21). If there ever was a competition that Golf Predictor was made for, this is it!
We're not going to keep that week's prediction data to ourselves until after the closing date (5pm local time, July 16th) for the competition or "accidentally" get the prediction wrong that week! Oh no, we're going to have our best prediction ready that week as usual and we wish you the best of luck. Just don't forget about us if you win!!!
Unfortunately, this particular competition is only open to residents of the island of Ireland (north and south of the border), but I'm sure there are similar competitions run from time to time in papers all over the world. With a Golf Predictor subscription, you can see our full ranking list and analyse the statistics for all the golfers in the field. This will definitely give you a huge advantage in this type of competition.
So, sign up today - it could be the best investment you ever make!
We're not going to keep that week's prediction data to ourselves until after the closing date (5pm local time, July 16th) for the competition or "accidentally" get the prediction wrong that week! Oh no, we're going to have our best prediction ready that week as usual and we wish you the best of luck. Just don't forget about us if you win!!!
Unfortunately, this particular competition is only open to residents of the island of Ireland (north and south of the border), but I'm sure there are similar competitions run from time to time in papers all over the world. With a Golf Predictor subscription, you can see our full ranking list and analyse the statistics for all the golfers in the field. This will definitely give you a huge advantage in this type of competition.
So, sign up today - it could be the best investment you ever make!
Thursday, 26 June 2008
Prediction Update for Week 32, 2008
We have re-run the prediction engine for this week's tournaments as the previous results were not in the system, although the tournaments themselves were. You know what they say about assumption being the mother of all cock ups? Well, it's obviously true!
This has allowed some players to move up a few places in the rankings on the back of good performances on the same course in the past so be sure to check out the new list. Note that you may have to refresh the Golf Predictor prediction pages to see the updated rankings.
This has allowed some players to move up a few places in the rankings on the back of good performances on the same course in the past so be sure to check out the new list. Note that you may have to refresh the Golf Predictor prediction pages to see the updated rankings.
Wednesday, 25 June 2008
New Search Feature
We have added a basic search page to the member section of Golf Predictor. This will allow members to search for tournaments, golfers and courses in our system. As shown in the screen shot above, members can search by tournament name, golfer first name, golfer surname, golfer nationality, course name, course location, course country and course par.
We've altered the top menu to accommodate this new functionality and we hope that you find it useful.
Course View Enhanced
We've enhanced the Courses view slightly by adding the par and length to the list of courses. These two fields are also sortable, so you can now list courses by these parameters.
Knee Latest
Apparently, Tiger has had his latest knee operation already and it was a complete success. That's great news for him and everyone else with an interest in golf, save perhaps the other pros!!
Let's wish him the best and hope he's back striding the fairways as soon as possible. In the meantime, all the other guys better may hay while they can!
Let's wish him the best and hope he's back striding the fairways as soon as possible. In the meantime, all the other guys better may hay while they can!
Monday, 23 June 2008
2008 - Week 32 Predictions Now Online
The predictions for the Buick Open and the Open de France are now live on the site. Let's hope that we can keep our hot streak going here at Golf Predictor!
2008 - Week 32 Extra Information
There are a lot of previous winners playing in the Buick Open this week in Michigan. Most of these competitors won before 2003 (as far back as Golf Predictor goes), including Scott Verplank (1988), Dan Forsman (1992), Larry Mize (1993), Woody Austin (1995), Justin Leonard (1996), Billy Mayfair (1998), Tom Pernice Jr (1999), Rocco Mediate (2000) and Kenny Perry (2001).
The corresponding list of pre 2003 winners competing in the Open de France this week is Miguel Angel Martin (1992), Paul Broadhurst (1995), Colin Montgomerie (2000) and Malcolm MacKenzie (2002).
The corresponding list of pre 2003 winners competing in the Open de France this week is Miguel Angel Martin (1992), Paul Broadhurst (1995), Colin Montgomerie (2000) and Malcolm MacKenzie (2002).
Sunday, 22 June 2008
2008 - Week 31 Winners
Week 31 has been a great week for Golf Predictor. We have got our first back to back wins after Stewart Cink prevailed once more in the Travelers Championship at TPC River Highlands in Connecticut. In fact, 4 or our top 5 finished in the top 10 and we had 5 of the top 10 in total. Hunter Mahon and even auld Corey Pavin continued their good showings here. With his consistent performances this season, a win was on the cards and Cink duly delivered his 5th career victory. It was his first win for 4 years and he finally sealed the deal with a good up and down on 18.
Martin Kaymar (ranked 7 by us) almost did a "Hennie Otto" and let a big lead slip in the BMW Interational Open in Munich. After playing imperious bogey free golf on Friday (63) and Saturday (67), he squandered a 6 shot lead and needed a birdie at the last to force a play-off with Anders Hansen (ranked 12). Luckily for him, he triumphed in front of his home crowd and dedicated his win to his ill mother, to whom we wish our best. We have spoken a lot about knees lately and Hansen did incredibly well just one month after his own knee surgery. Our top choice, Henrik Stenson finished in a tie for 6th and altogether we had 9 out of the top 14, which is a great result for us.
Martin Kaymar (ranked 7 by us) almost did a "Hennie Otto" and let a big lead slip in the BMW Interational Open in Munich. After playing imperious bogey free golf on Friday (63) and Saturday (67), he squandered a 6 shot lead and needed a birdie at the last to force a play-off with Anders Hansen (ranked 12). Luckily for him, he triumphed in front of his home crowd and dedicated his win to his ill mother, to whom we wish our best. We have spoken a lot about knees lately and Hansen did incredibly well just one month after his own knee surgery. Our top choice, Henrik Stenson finished in a tie for 6th and altogether we had 9 out of the top 14, which is a great result for us.
Hardest Courses on the US PGA Tour
Note: If you want a list of the current 5 hardest courses on the US PGA Tour in 2008, click here.
Just found an interesting article on the US PGA Tour web site ranking the 2008 courses that tournaments have been played on by difficulty. The level of difficulty is determined by the scores shot by the pros during the week of the event.
Interestingly enough, Torrey Pines is in the top 10 of hardest courses twice, once for Buick Invitational setup (8) and once for the US Open setup (1). So, it's obviously a brute! At the other end of the scale, the four courses used in the Bob Hope Chrysler Classic are all in the top 5 easiest courses, which obviously makes it a bit of a doddle for the pros. Small wonder then that the winning score is usually the best part of 30 under!
Just found an interesting article on the US PGA Tour web site ranking the 2008 courses that tournaments have been played on by difficulty. The level of difficulty is determined by the scores shot by the pros during the week of the event.
Interestingly enough, Torrey Pines is in the top 10 of hardest courses twice, once for Buick Invitational setup (8) and once for the US Open setup (1). So, it's obviously a brute! At the other end of the scale, the four courses used in the Bob Hope Chrysler Classic are all in the top 5 easiest courses, which obviously makes it a bit of a doddle for the pros. Small wonder then that the winning score is usually the best part of 30 under!
Thursday, 19 June 2008
Prediction Update for Week 31, 2008
Due to the fact that two of our top ten are late withdrawals from the BMW International (see comments for this post), we have re-run the Golf Predictor prediction engine to update the ranking list accordingly.
Addendum: We've just heard the Rocco Mediate (unsurprisingly) and Zach Johnson have pulled out of the Travelers Championship, so we have re-run the predictions for that tournament also.
Addendum: We've just heard the Rocco Mediate (unsurprisingly) and Zach Johnson have pulled out of the Travelers Championship, so we have re-run the predictions for that tournament also.
Wednesday, 18 June 2008
Tiger out for the Season
Hot on the heels of my post on Tiger possibly missing the British Open, he has just announced that he is out for the rest of the season. This is very bad news for him and for golf and disastrous for the US TV networks, bless 'em! We can only hope that he fully recovers and can resume his remarkable career next season. He'll still be world number one, but it will be interesting to see how much his massive lead will be cut by then.
As part of his announcement, more medical information came to light that made his performance all the more amazing. As it turns out, contrary to Retief Goosen's crass remarks in Germany about him faking injury, Tiger was suffering from one of the most serious knee complaints. He has to have his anterior cruciate ligament fixed and if that wasn't enough, he has stress fractures in his leg too!! Apparently his playing partners could hear strange noises from his knee, which is never a good sign.
To win in such a condition - what a player, what an athlete! Not since Stephen Hendry won the world snooker championship with a broken arm in 1994 has anything so extraordinary been achieved. You'd have to wonder why Tiger took part at all in the US Open in such a condition, although it will surely go down in the annals of golf (and sport in general) as one of the greatest ever performances. Let's hope it doesn't also go down as his last.
As part of his announcement, more medical information came to light that made his performance all the more amazing. As it turns out, contrary to Retief Goosen's crass remarks in Germany about him faking injury, Tiger was suffering from one of the most serious knee complaints. He has to have his anterior cruciate ligament fixed and if that wasn't enough, he has stress fractures in his leg too!! Apparently his playing partners could hear strange noises from his knee, which is never a good sign.
To win in such a condition - what a player, what an athlete! Not since Stephen Hendry won the world snooker championship with a broken arm in 1994 has anything so extraordinary been achieved. You'd have to wonder why Tiger took part at all in the US Open in such a condition, although it will surely go down in the annals of golf (and sport in general) as one of the greatest ever performances. Let's hope it doesn't also go down as his last.
Tiger Gives Hope to Others
Tiger Woods has hinted that he may have to miss the British Open next month as a result of his heroics in the US Open last weekend. Admitting that he may have damaged his knee by playing at Torrey Pines, Woods was not overly optimistic about his chances of teeing off at Royal Birkdale.
While that would be a shame for him, the golfing fans and TV companies if he doesn't make it, I can think of about 160 people who will be licking their lips come July 17th. A lot of them might actually then have a realistic chance of winning!
While that would be a shame for him, the golfing fans and TV companies if he doesn't make it, I can think of about 160 people who will be licking their lips come July 17th. A lot of them might actually then have a realistic chance of winning!
Tuesday, 17 June 2008
Prediction Algorithm Upgrade
We are constantly monitoring and tweaking our prediction algorithm here at Golf Predictor. Our latest upgrade will result in markedly higher winning possibility percentages for golfers in most tournaments.
As this change is so noticeable we thought we'd mention it. We've changed the world ranking component to increase its effectiveness in most tournaments. It should hopefully result in more accurate predictions for you, our loyal users.
As this change is so noticeable we thought we'd mention it. We've changed the world ranking component to increase its effectiveness in most tournaments. It should hopefully result in more accurate predictions for you, our loyal users.
2008 - Week 31 Predictions Online
The predictions for the BMW International Open (Europe) and The Travelers Championship (US) are now live on the site. Apologies for the delay this week which were beyond our control.
There were 2 reasons for this - the late finish of the US Open (as mentioned here) and incorrect world ranking data from our usual source. This necessitated some rolling up of sleeves here at Golf Predictor, but we gone it done in the end!
There were 2 reasons for this - the late finish of the US Open (as mentioned here) and incorrect world ranking data from our usual source. This necessitated some rolling up of sleeves here at Golf Predictor, but we gone it done in the end!
Course of Action
Tiger sure loves Torrey Pines! The US Open was his 5th tournament victory in a row there. In fact, since 2003, he has only failed to win once - a pathetic 10th in 2004! His latest victory thus give him an average finishing position of 2.28 in that time, which is extraordinary consistency over 5 years.
In winning again there this season, he becomes the first golfer to win 2 events on the same course in the same season twice. Previous winners of 2 tournaments on the same course in the same season is a very elite group - Ben Hogan, Jack Nicklaus and Tiger (2000 at Pebble Beach). That's a pretty impressive collection of names. With the exception of Bobby Jones, I can't think of anyone else who would make a list of the top 3 golfers of all time.
In winning again there this season, he becomes the first golfer to win 2 events on the same course in the same season twice. Previous winners of 2 tournaments on the same course in the same season is a very elite group - Ben Hogan, Jack Nicklaus and Tiger (2000 at Pebble Beach). That's a pretty impressive collection of names. With the exception of Bobby Jones, I can't think of anyone else who would make a list of the top 3 golfers of all time.
Monday, 16 June 2008
2008 - Week 30 Winners
Despite our reservations, Golf Predictor's top pick, Tiger Woods, won the US Open with an unbelievable display on his comeback from injury. In a close battle with the gallant Rocco Mediate, Tiger won on the first hole of sudden death after 2 rounds of 71. It was third time unlucky for Rocco when it came to play-offs in this year's event!
Most of the other Golf Predictor big guns finished in the top 20. Robert Karlsson and Miguel Angel Jimenez continued their fine recent form, despite having no track record on the course or form of note in this event in the past. That fact alone may help us generate more accurate predictions in the future. Luke Donald and Ian Poulter both withdrew (the latter somewhat controversially) but our top 10 doesn't improve without them.
The expected crap shoot materialised at the St. Omer Open in France. Our only top ten was Francois Delamontagne (ranked 2nd by Golf Predictor) who finished in a tie for 4th. Despite being the highest world ranked player in the field by a country mile, Paul McGinley missed the cut, paving the way for our 27th pick, David Dixon to claim his maiden victory. A fine achievement considering he was 9 shots back after the first round. Like like week's third round leader (Jeev Milkha Singh), Christian Nilsson parred the final round. Unfortunately for him, lightning didn't strike twice as he was overhauled by Dixon with his fine closing 66.
Most of the other Golf Predictor big guns finished in the top 20. Robert Karlsson and Miguel Angel Jimenez continued their fine recent form, despite having no track record on the course or form of note in this event in the past. That fact alone may help us generate more accurate predictions in the future. Luke Donald and Ian Poulter both withdrew (the latter somewhat controversially) but our top 10 doesn't improve without them.
The expected crap shoot materialised at the St. Omer Open in France. Our only top ten was Francois Delamontagne (ranked 2nd by Golf Predictor) who finished in a tie for 4th. Despite being the highest world ranked player in the field by a country mile, Paul McGinley missed the cut, paving the way for our 27th pick, David Dixon to claim his maiden victory. A fine achievement considering he was 9 shots back after the first round. Like like week's third round leader (Jeev Milkha Singh), Christian Nilsson parred the final round. Unfortunately for him, lightning didn't strike twice as he was overhauled by Dixon with his fine closing 66.
Prediction Delay
Because of the play off in the US Open, we probably won't be able to generate the most accurate prediction for this week's events (Travelers Championship and the BMW International Open) until tomorrow, Tuesday, the 16th June.
We will have our predictions online as soon as all the necessary data is available to us. In the meantime, we have added the US Open results to Golf Predictor with Tiger and Rocco as joint number one until the play off is complete.
We will have our predictions online as soon as all the necessary data is available to us. In the meantime, we have added the US Open results to Golf Predictor with Tiger and Rocco as joint number one until the play off is complete.
What Knee Problems?!
Well, I guess he doesn't even need 2 legs to play well! What a gutsy performance from Tiger (ranked 1 by Golf Predictor) over the past 4 days in the US Open. Despite being in obvious pain, he did a "Tiger" on the 72nd hole with a ballsy (and bobbly!) putt from about 12 feet to secure a place in a play off later today.
He'll be up against Rocco Mediate (ranked 76), surely one of the nicest guys in world golf, for the coveted prize. It won't be Mediate's first play off in this year's US Open, so that might give him a slight edge (and if I was him, I'd take any edge I could get!) in his quest to be the oldest first time major winner. He had to secure his place in the field in the first place in a play off at a US Open qualifier, so he's handled severe pressure all throughout this tournament. He has had a poor enough season (missed 8 cuts, 1 withdrawal from 17 events) and an unimpressive recent record on both the course and in the US Open but he still manages to almost win it on Sunday. No one said our job here at Golf Predictor was easy (see here for more on that).
How will Tiger's knee hold up over yet another 18 holes today? I've already torn up the rulebook on that. Personally, from a bravery award, history making and professional point of view, I'd like to see Tiger triumph later. However, on the other hand, Tiger has won enough and Mediate is such a great guy (and I've seen him conduct himself in person), I'd be delighted to see him win also. Game on!
He'll be up against Rocco Mediate (ranked 76), surely one of the nicest guys in world golf, for the coveted prize. It won't be Mediate's first play off in this year's US Open, so that might give him a slight edge (and if I was him, I'd take any edge I could get!) in his quest to be the oldest first time major winner. He had to secure his place in the field in the first place in a play off at a US Open qualifier, so he's handled severe pressure all throughout this tournament. He has had a poor enough season (missed 8 cuts, 1 withdrawal from 17 events) and an unimpressive recent record on both the course and in the US Open but he still manages to almost win it on Sunday. No one said our job here at Golf Predictor was easy (see here for more on that).
How will Tiger's knee hold up over yet another 18 holes today? I've already torn up the rulebook on that. Personally, from a bravery award, history making and professional point of view, I'd like to see Tiger triumph later. However, on the other hand, Tiger has won enough and Mediate is such a great guy (and I've seen him conduct himself in person), I'd be delighted to see him win also. Game on!
Sunday, 15 June 2008
Maximise Your Chances of Being a Pro Golfer
Not that we have too much time on our hands these days, we have perused our database of over 2000 golfers to come up with the following (fun) analysis of what will maximise your (or your son's) chances of living the dream life of a tournament golf professional!
First off, it is very important to be American. If you aren't, consider applying for a green card with a view to citizenship down the line. If you are pushing on a bit yourself, consider waiting for the Champions Tour before turning pro. If you want to steer your young son down the golf pro path, it is important that you uproot your family and head for the land of the free NOW! Alternatively, if you are planning to have a family in the future, emigrating to the US first would be a good idea.
Your name should be John or David (or some variant thereof). If not, head for the local court straight away and change it by deed poll. You might not have to if you are named James, Robert, Andrew or Richard as those names are unsurprisingly popular also. Despite the American influence among the pro ranks, fortunately it is not necessary to call yourself Chip, Brad or Hank.
Interestingly, there are a huge variety of surnames, so you can probably keep your own. Changing it to Woods though has obvious intimidatory value on future competitors. If you really want the final edge, change your surname (if necessary) to Lee or Johnson, the only really common names I could find in my non-exhaustive search of our system. The former obviously gives Asians a distinct advantage, although the Lees in the database are from all over the world. Those who are really determined to make it as a pro should consider a double barrel appellation of Johnson-Lee!!
First off, it is very important to be American. If you aren't, consider applying for a green card with a view to citizenship down the line. If you are pushing on a bit yourself, consider waiting for the Champions Tour before turning pro. If you want to steer your young son down the golf pro path, it is important that you uproot your family and head for the land of the free NOW! Alternatively, if you are planning to have a family in the future, emigrating to the US first would be a good idea.
Your name should be John or David (or some variant thereof). If not, head for the local court straight away and change it by deed poll. You might not have to if you are named James, Robert, Andrew or Richard as those names are unsurprisingly popular also. Despite the American influence among the pro ranks, fortunately it is not necessary to call yourself Chip, Brad or Hank.
Interestingly, there are a huge variety of surnames, so you can probably keep your own. Changing it to Woods though has obvious intimidatory value on future competitors. If you really want the final edge, change your surname (if necessary) to Lee or Johnson, the only really common names I could find in my non-exhaustive search of our system. The former obviously gives Asians a distinct advantage, although the Lees in the database are from all over the world. Those who are really determined to make it as a pro should consider a double barrel appellation of Johnson-Lee!!
How to Use Golf Predictor
I should have posted this much earlier, but here goes!
There are two sides to Golf Predictor - the statistics analyser and the prediction engine. If you are only interested in golf statistics, you can use our comprehensive data and charts to track golfer performance over a season or even historically in a specific tournament or on a particular golf course. The prediction engine uses these statistics to generate winning probabilities for the golfer in his next tournament and is aimed primarily at fantasy golfers and golf punters.
The winner of a golf tournament is very difficult to predict (that's why we are here to help!). With so many good golfers in the field, it's like a horse race with 160 horses of similar ability. Apart from Tiger Woods, who would be Shergar (insert your pick as best race horse here!) in the horse racing analogy, and Phil Mickelson (Seabiscuit perhaps?!), there is very little between the rest of the world's top 20. Similarly, there is very little between the 30th and 70th ranked golfers or indeed the 400th and 600th ranked players in the world etc.
With fields like this, it is difficult to predict an outright winner and we wouldn't recommend a bet to win on any golfer (even Tiger, whose odds are usually criminally short). Luckily however, places are a lot easier to predict and we recommend you bet each way if you're having a flutter. Most bookmakers give odds for a top 6 or even a top 10 finish. You can also bet on match ups, e.g. the head to head performance of 2 (or sometimes 3) golfers. This is where Golf Predictor comes into its own.
By examining our comprehensive statistics/charts and prediction ranking, you can spot value (or lack thereof) in the odds offered by your favourite bookie for certain players. Similarly, fantasy golfers can spot golfers under or overvalued by your system. You can also directly compare the statistics for up to three golfers on tour 'Compare Golfers' page to find value in match up odds. This gives you an edge over the house, and like card counting in blackjack, over time should help you be more successful. An added bonus is that there is no chance of being tapped on the shoulder by a heavy and taken out the back for a tune up!
There are two sides to Golf Predictor - the statistics analyser and the prediction engine. If you are only interested in golf statistics, you can use our comprehensive data and charts to track golfer performance over a season or even historically in a specific tournament or on a particular golf course. The prediction engine uses these statistics to generate winning probabilities for the golfer in his next tournament and is aimed primarily at fantasy golfers and golf punters.
The winner of a golf tournament is very difficult to predict (that's why we are here to help!). With so many good golfers in the field, it's like a horse race with 160 horses of similar ability. Apart from Tiger Woods, who would be Shergar (insert your pick as best race horse here!) in the horse racing analogy, and Phil Mickelson (Seabiscuit perhaps?!), there is very little between the rest of the world's top 20. Similarly, there is very little between the 30th and 70th ranked golfers or indeed the 400th and 600th ranked players in the world etc.
With fields like this, it is difficult to predict an outright winner and we wouldn't recommend a bet to win on any golfer (even Tiger, whose odds are usually criminally short). Luckily however, places are a lot easier to predict and we recommend you bet each way if you're having a flutter. Most bookmakers give odds for a top 6 or even a top 10 finish. You can also bet on match ups, e.g. the head to head performance of 2 (or sometimes 3) golfers. This is where Golf Predictor comes into its own.
By examining our comprehensive statistics/charts and prediction ranking, you can spot value (or lack thereof) in the odds offered by your favourite bookie for certain players. Similarly, fantasy golfers can spot golfers under or overvalued by your system. You can also directly compare the statistics for up to three golfers on tour 'Compare Golfers' page to find value in match up odds. This gives you an edge over the house, and like card counting in blackjack, over time should help you be more successful. An added bonus is that there is no chance of being tapped on the shoulder by a heavy and taken out the back for a tune up!
Saturday, 14 June 2008
New Golf News Widget
We have added a news widget to the bottom of the member home page. This handy little tool allows us to provide you with the latest quality golfing news from around the web. Currently, the widget contains news feeds from Reuters, the BBC, US PGA (US PGA Tour) and US PGA (European PGA Tour).
Unfortunately, the Reuters feed is untitled, but it does seem to have good stories, so we left it in there. Instructions on how to use the widget are included on the member home page.
Friday, 13 June 2008
Minor Prediction Algorithm Fix
Alert users will spot slightly different overall rankings for golfers in the prediction views today. While dealing with the St. Omer Open entry list issue, a slight problem was spotted with the calculation of the current form (last 5 event performance) element of the prediction algorithm.
Since this effected almost every golfer equally, it does not really effect the overall prediction rankings. The exception were those few golfers with an exceptional recent record (e.g. Tiger Woods), who gained more from the fix. All predictions in Golf Predictor have been updated.
Since this effected almost every golfer equally, it does not really effect the overall prediction rankings. The exception were those few golfers with an exceptional recent record (e.g. Tiger Woods), who gained more from the fix. All predictions in Golf Predictor have been updated.
Thursday, 12 June 2008
St Omer Open Prediction Update - 2008
For reasons outside our control here at Golf Predictor, we have had to update the prediction for the St. Omer Open. The official entry list available on Monday was missing over 40% of the field! We were only able to get the correct list today. Normally you would expect only a few late additions/withdrawals, so we don't know what happened here.
With the inclusion of Paul McGinley in the field, this increased the highest ranked player in the field to 146 in the world. Mind you, he is the only golfer in the world top 200 in the field, so the field isn't that much stronger than originally thought!
With the inclusion of Paul McGinley in the field, this increased the highest ranked player in the field to 146 in the world. Mind you, he is the only golfer in the world top 200 in the field, so the field isn't that much stronger than originally thought!
Yet Another New Chart
We have done it again here at Golf Predictor, where we work tirelessly to provide a better service for our users. As if the 13 new charts added to the system yesterday weren't enough, we have added another brand new one today.
This latest chart shows the strength of the field for each tournament by grouping the world rankings of the players in the field. This beings the chart count in our system to 26 by our reckoning, which is not a bad offering!
This new chart really highlights the difference in class (mentioned here) between the 2 tournaments held this week. For example, looking at the chart for US Open field (see screen shot above), you can see that 49 of the top 50 are playing while the St. Omer Open field is not quite so impressive! The US open tends to have a lot of amateurs, regional qualifiers etc., so that explains the high number of low ranked golfers also in the field.
Only subscribers can view this new chart, so why not sign up to Golf Predictor today?!
Tiger's Knee
More information has come to light about Tiger's knee. Apparently, Tiger has not actually even walked a full 18 holes yet in advance of his first round in the US Open later today.
Now, speaking as a veteran of 2 similar knee surgeries myself, this has to be a major concern (pun intended!). Like Tiger, I was assiduous in my rehabilitation regime and did all the exercises. However, when it came to even just walking again (never mind golfing), my brain subconsciously favoured my good leg for months, if not years afterwards. Luckily for me, it was my right knee and being a very poor golfer with bad weight transfer, my game didn't suffer much on my return! However, with a finely tuned and perfectly balanced athletic swing like Tiger's and a dodgy left knee, I can tell you that his brain will be protecting it on the follow through (either consciously or subconsciously), especially as he tires and it starts to ache, as it will, coming down the stretch. So, I wouldn't be surprised if he starts off brightly and falters on the back nine. If I knew enough about the golf swing, I'd speculate that if he doesn't follow through correctly, he'd probably start leaking shots to the right.
I hope I'm wrong and the knee holds up for his sake and for ours, the golf fans. I still think it would be extraordinary if he won, but then again, extraordinary has been his trademark for years!
Now, speaking as a veteran of 2 similar knee surgeries myself, this has to be a major concern (pun intended!). Like Tiger, I was assiduous in my rehabilitation regime and did all the exercises. However, when it came to even just walking again (never mind golfing), my brain subconsciously favoured my good leg for months, if not years afterwards. Luckily for me, it was my right knee and being a very poor golfer with bad weight transfer, my game didn't suffer much on my return! However, with a finely tuned and perfectly balanced athletic swing like Tiger's and a dodgy left knee, I can tell you that his brain will be protecting it on the follow through (either consciously or subconsciously), especially as he tires and it starts to ache, as it will, coming down the stretch. So, I wouldn't be surprised if he starts off brightly and falters on the back nine. If I knew enough about the golf swing, I'd speculate that if he doesn't follow through correctly, he'd probably start leaking shots to the right.
I hope I'm wrong and the knee holds up for his sake and for ours, the golf fans. I still think it would be extraordinary if he won, but then again, extraordinary has been his trademark for years!
Wednesday, 11 June 2008
Golf Predictor Gets Even Better!
Thanks to a great suggestion from a user, we have added even more charts to Golf Predictor. The idea took a couple of seconds to explain, but considerable longer to implement! Fortunately, all the effort was worth it as these 13 (yes, 13!) new charts are really useful.
From the first 5 screens in the "Stats Analysis" section of the member area, you can now access charts of the:
- Top performing golfers this season (the most consistent golfers).
- Top performing golfers in their last 5 events (the form golfers).
- Top ranked golfers in the world (the best golfers).
- Golfers with the lowest season scoring average.
- Golfers deemed most likely to win by Golf Predictor.
- Top performers on the same course in previous events.
- Top performers in the same tournament in previous years (from 2003 onwards).
- Top performers in round 1 this season.
- Top performers in round 2 this season.
- Top performers in round 3 this season.
- Top performers in the final round this season.
- Top performers in round 1 on this course in previous events.
- Top performers in round 1 in this tournament in previous years.
Subscribers can access all these new charts, while non-subscribers will only have access to the scoring average and Round 2 average charts. Another great reason to sign up to Golf Predictor!
US Open - Extra Information
Phil Mickelson has won on Torrey Pines 3 times in the past (1993, 2000, 2001) and was runner-up in 1996, all unfortunately outside the remit of Golf Predictor, which incorporates results from 2003 onwards. This would give Phil a higher winning probability (of a couple of percentage points), but it wouldn't alter his ranking. He has also played several practice rounds there in the past few weeks and grew up on the course. Remember when I said that perhaps Tiger wouldn't win this week?!
Other players teeing it off this week who performed well at Torrey Pines before 2003 are Mark O'Meara (winner 1997, runner-up 2002), Davis Love III (winner 1996, runner-up 2001), Mark Calcavecchia (runner-up 1995) and even Tiger again (runner-up 2000). Factoring in their age and the the course now, I don't think the chances of the older gentlemen prevailing are any better though!
As far as the US Open itself before 2003 is concerned, the wins of that man, Tiger (2000 & 2003), Ernie Els (1994 & 1997) and Retief Goosen (2001) should also be kept in mind. However, the South African boys have been a bit all over the place if you look at their season performance charts on their prediction pages.
Other players teeing it off this week who performed well at Torrey Pines before 2003 are Mark O'Meara (winner 1997, runner-up 2002), Davis Love III (winner 1996, runner-up 2001), Mark Calcavecchia (runner-up 1995) and even Tiger again (runner-up 2000). Factoring in their age and the the course now, I don't think the chances of the older gentlemen prevailing are any better though!
As far as the US Open itself before 2003 is concerned, the wins of that man, Tiger (2000 & 2003), Ernie Els (1994 & 1997) and Retief Goosen (2001) should also be kept in mind. However, the South African boys have been a bit all over the place if you look at their season performance charts on their prediction pages.
Tuesday, 10 June 2008
US Open Prediction Update
We have had to run the prediction engine for the US Open again as it was not factoring in the results from the Buick Invitational for the years 2003 to 2007. As this tournament is also played at Torrey Pines (albeit with a different layout and an extra course!), it was important to include these results in the calculations. This was due to a data entry oversight, not a fault in the prediction algorithm.
It didn't change the pecking order very much. Tiger has become an even hotter favourite, given his unbelievable track record there. Golf Predictor apologises for the oversight; we are flogging the culprit as I type!
It didn't change the pecking order very much. Tiger has become an even hotter favourite, given his unbelievable track record there. Golf Predictor apologises for the oversight; we are flogging the culprit as I type!
Monday, 9 June 2008
First Live Major
This week sees the first major since we went live on Golf Predictor, namely the US Open. One Tiger Woods Esquire is back in action and I wouldn't be giving anything away by saying he again tops the Golf Predictor rankings, albeit with a lower probability due to his lay-off. Since he missed the cut at the last major after he came back after a long break (understandable as his father and mentor, Earl, had died) and the course is an absolute brute, it might be wise to look elsewhere for a likely winner this time.
Speaking of the course, it has been lengthened to a mammoth 7643 yards and the par reduced from 72 to 71 since the Buick Invitational in January. This makes it almost exactly 500 yards longer than the average par 71 in our database, so scoring should be modest, even if the course set up is not as penal as previous US Opens. The course information in our database will retain the original information as the Buick is played every year. The reduced par will, of course, be factored into the scoring average calculations.
While the US Open will have the cream of golf strutting their stuff in California, the opposite will be true on the European Tour in the St. Omer Open in France. With all other non US Open qualifying top golfers putting the feet up for the week, the highest ranked player competing is a mighty 222 in the world. This makes predicting the outcome a bit of a crap shoot, so it will be interesting how that pans out.
Speaking of the course, it has been lengthened to a mammoth 7643 yards and the par reduced from 72 to 71 since the Buick Invitational in January. This makes it almost exactly 500 yards longer than the average par 71 in our database, so scoring should be modest, even if the course set up is not as penal as previous US Opens. The course information in our database will retain the original information as the Buick is played every year. The reduced par will, of course, be factored into the scoring average calculations.
While the US Open will have the cream of golf strutting their stuff in California, the opposite will be true on the European Tour in the St. Omer Open in France. With all other non US Open qualifying top golfers putting the feet up for the week, the highest ranked player competing is a mighty 222 in the world. This makes predicting the outcome a bit of a crap shoot, so it will be interesting how that pans out.
First Impressions
You can't say we don't listen here at Golf Predictor! Thanks to feedback from another user, we have reduced the text on the home page by about 30% while conveying the same information.
You web surfers are a fickle lot and too much text is not something that you want to be see when you encounter a web site, especially for the first time. Thanks for the tip - this home page pruning should help matters somewhat.
You web surfers are a fickle lot and too much text is not something that you want to be see when you encounter a web site, especially for the first time. Thanks for the tip - this home page pruning should help matters somewhat.
2008 - Week 29 Winners
Jeev Milkha Singh (ranked 16) parred all 18 holes of his final round to hold off the field in the rain shortened Austrian Open. That's about 15 more pars in a row than my personal record! If he hadn't finished disastrously on the final 2 holes, our top pick, Graeme McDowell, would has finished third, but as it was, he ended up in eight place. We also had Soren Hansen and Sam Little in the top ten.
Well done to Justin Leonard (ranked 3) who has crowned a good season with a win in the Stanford St. Jude Championship. Despite a late bogey to drop back into a play off, he secured his victory with a birdie on the second play off hole. Trevor Immelman and Padraig Harrington continued their topsy turvy form with a good showing here. Golf Predictor had David Toms as our top pick, due mainly to his 2 previous wins in the past 5 years, but he finished down in 37th place this time. Robert Allenby also finished in the top 4 as predicted and we also had Sergio Garcia in the top ten.
Well done to Justin Leonard (ranked 3) who has crowned a good season with a win in the Stanford St. Jude Championship. Despite a late bogey to drop back into a play off, he secured his victory with a birdie on the second play off hole. Trevor Immelman and Padraig Harrington continued their topsy turvy form with a good showing here. Golf Predictor had David Toms as our top pick, due mainly to his 2 previous wins in the past 5 years, but he finished down in 37th place this time. Robert Allenby also finished in the top 4 as predicted and we also had Sergio Garcia in the top ten.
Sunday, 8 June 2008
Week Numbers
I should have explained the week number concept earlier. Since tournaments are held on a weekly basis, with anything from zero to three tournaments held on any given week between the US and European tours, it made since to introduce the week number.
This was done at the beginning of the Golf Predictor development and allows for easy tournament sorting and more convenient blog updates, among other things! Week one is the first week of the season with a tournament, which happens to be in the previous year, thanks to the quirks of the European tour, which usually starts its season in November of the wrong year and on the wrong continent!! Weeks with no individual tournaments (e.g. over Christmas) are excluded from the week count.
As an interesting aside, I believe that the 'European' tour has hosted events on every continent bar North America and Antarctica. As for completing the set, the former is obviously ruled out for political reasons, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the South Pole Open on the schedule in future years!
This was done at the beginning of the Golf Predictor development and allows for easy tournament sorting and more convenient blog updates, among other things! Week one is the first week of the season with a tournament, which happens to be in the previous year, thanks to the quirks of the European tour, which usually starts its season in November of the wrong year and on the wrong continent!! Weeks with no individual tournaments (e.g. over Christmas) are excluded from the week count.
As an interesting aside, I believe that the 'European' tour has hosted events on every continent bar North America and Antarctica. As for completing the set, the former is obviously ruled out for political reasons, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the South Pole Open on the schedule in future years!
New Tournament Information Visible
Thanks to an excellent suggestion from a user, we have added the actual date of a tournament to all appropriate screens. For good measure, we also added the course information to the same screens.
In addition, some of the screens now also have extra event details such as the tournament type (major, WGC or regular), the tour it belongs to (US or European, for regular events only. The other tournament types span both tours) and if it is a new or established event.
A column with the tournament start date has also been added to the 'View Options\Tournaments' screen. Since a season spans two years (thanks to the European tour!), the year is included in the date, although only the first half dozen or so tournaments in the season will have been held in the previous year.
In addition, some of the screens now also have extra event details such as the tournament type (major, WGC or regular), the tour it belongs to (US or European, for regular events only. The other tournament types span both tours) and if it is a new or established event.
A column with the tournament start date has also been added to the 'View Options\Tournaments' screen. Since a season spans two years (thanks to the European tour!), the year is included in the date, although only the first half dozen or so tournaments in the season will have been held in the previous year.
Saturday, 7 June 2008
Golf Predictor Chic!
As if it wasn't enough to eat, breathe and sleep Golf Predictor, we're now wearing it as well! We've just taken delivery of a small consignment of branded t-shirts for cheap advertising stunts! If anyone wants to wear one in a large urban area or in a large crowd, preferably golf or sports betting related, let us know and we'll consider sending you out one of our 100% cotton t-shirts. Send us photographic proof of wear in the aforementioned arenas and we'll give you a free subscription to Golf Predictor!
Maybe we'll diversify into a clothing line and start calling ourselves G Piddy!!!! Eau de Golf Predictor and underwear range to follow!
New Blog Host
We have moved the blog back to Blogger for hosting in order to provide a better experience for you, our users. Previously, we published via ftp to the Golf Predictor host, but this limited the design and layout of the blog significantly.
Thanks for your patience during the change over.
Thanks for your patience during the change over.
Sunday, 1 June 2008
2008 - Week 28 Winners
I don't think Nostradamus himself could have predicted the outcome of the Wales Open this year! Even Golf Predictor's top pick, Oliver Wilson, was only a 52.3% probability to succeed. A golfer ranked 164 in the world won while most of the 'big' names bombed, either missing the cut or finishing well down the field. Padraig Harrington must have been particularly embarrassed, as he was rumoured to have been given a serious wad just to turn up. Well done to Scott Strange though, who finished with a real flourish with a blemish free 64. Tough luck on the consistent Robert Karlsson who also burned up the course only to find he was still miles behind the winner. Last week's winner, Miguel Angel Jimenez, withdrew, leaving Golf Predictor with just Karlsson of the top ten playing to form.
Kenny Perry also hit a good final round to win Jack's tournament in Ohio for the third time. He would have been ranked higher than 7th on our list had the first victory had not been before 2003 (1991), which is how far back our records go. Vijay Singh didn't tee it up in The Memorial either, so he must really be badly injured as he sure likes to play.
Kenny Perry also hit a good final round to win Jack's tournament in Ohio for the third time. He would have been ranked higher than 7th on our list had the first victory had not been before 2003 (1991), which is how far back our records go. Vijay Singh didn't tee it up in The Memorial either, so he must really be badly injured as he sure likes to play.
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