2010 - Week 45 Winners

Graeme McDowell (ranked 2nd by Golf Predictor) won the inaugural Andalucia Valderrama Masters on the European PGA Tour. The Northern Irish man breaks into the world top ten with his third win of a great season. Our top ranked player, Martin Kaymer, failed to keep his brilliant recent run going, which means Lee Westwood will be world number one tomorrow. Kaymer finished in tied 21st, but we had eight of the top eighteen plus ties (8/20) in total*.

Ben Crane (ranked 10th by Golf Predictor) won the first ever CIMB Asia Pacific Classic Malaysia on the US PGA Tour. The 34 year old American won with a birdie at the last to hold off the charging Brian Davis. Our top ranked player, Luke Donald, finished in tied 3rd and we had eight of the top eleven plus ties (8/14) in total.


*Manassero didn't play, so Aiken is promoted to the top twenty in our rankings.

2010 - Week 45 Predictions Online

The predictions and statistics for this week, the CIMB Asia Pacific Classic Malaysia (US PGA Tour) and the Andalucia Valderrama Masters (European PGA Tour) are now available on Golf Predictor. Both of these tail of season events are new tournaments, with the US PGA Tour following the European PGA Tour into Asia. The the CIMB Asia Pacific Classic Malaysia has a small field of 40, one quarter of whom are from the Asian Tour. Note that we do not track that tour, so most of those Asian golfers may be harshly assessed by our prediction engine.

Justin Timberlake Shriners Hospitals for Children Open Leaderboard

The leaderboard for the Justin Timberlake Shriners Hospitals for Children Open doesn't allow for a withdrawal who made the cut in the usual fashion. Usually in such circumstances, the golfer who withdrew (Brian Gay) is officially deemed to have finished higher than those who missed the cut and they are assigned a final position accordingly. This leaves a gap in the leaderboard between the last player who made the cut and the first one missing the cut as the withdrawal is listed at the bottom of the leaderboard.

However, this did not happen in this case and all those who missed the cut have been assigned a position one too high. Therefore, to keep things consistent on Golf Predictor, those missing the cut have been bumped down one place in our official results for the tournament.

2010 - Week 44 Winners

Matteo Manassero (ranked 32nd by Golf Predictor) won the Castello Masters Costa Azahar on the European PGA Tour. The 17 year old Italian phenomenon became the youngest ever winner on tour by over a year with his accomplished victory. Poor old Sergio Garcia missed the cut on his return to golf on his home track after a two month break. Our top ranked player, Richard Green, finished in tied 30th, and we had eleven of the top twenty three plus ties (11/29) in total.

Jonathan Byrd (ranked 33rd by Golf Predictor) won the Justin Timberlake Shriners Hospitals for Children Open on the US PGA Tour in spectacular fashion. The 32 year old American won with an ace on the fourth extra hole in a three man play-off. Martin Laird and Cameron Percy no doubt regret deciding to play one more hole in fading light! I believe that this is the first ever tournament settled with a hole in one. Our top ranked player, Hunter Mahan, finished in tied 50th, but we had four of the top eleven plus ties (4/13) in total.

2010 - Week 44 Predictions (US PGA Tour) Rerun

The predictions and statistics for the Justin Timberlake Shriners Hospitals Open (US PGA Tour) on Golf Predictor have had to be regenerated. This was due to the fact that the system was not updated to take into account that TPC Summerlin had been reduced to a par 71 from a par 72 last year. That meant that the scoring average stats were slightly off for the course/tournament history and the 2009 season for all golfers who played the event last year.

That has now been corrected and the predictions and the 2009 season statistics have been updated accordingly. It should only make a very slight difference to the rankings for the event. I apologise for any inconvenience caused.

2010 - Week 44 Predictions Online

The predictions and statistics for this week, the Justin Timberlake Shriners Hospitals Open (US PGA Tour) and the Castello Masters Costa Azahar (European PGA Tour) are now available on Golf Predictor. The season continues to wind down, so not many big names competing this week either.

2010 - Week 43 Winners

Richard Green (ranked 16th by Golf Predictor) won the Portugal Masters on the European PGA Tour. The 39 year old Australian came from seven shots back to secure his third tour title as overnight leader, Pablo Martin, choked (by his own admission) on the final day. Our top ranked player, Edoardo Molinari, finished in tied 52nd, but we had eight of the top seventeen plus ties (8/21) in total*.

Rocco Mediate (ranked 54th by Golf Predictor) overcame indifferent form to win the Frys.com Open on the US PGA Tour. The genial American won in amazing fashion, holing out (for the fourth consecutive day) on 17 for a one shot victory. Our top ranked player, Tim Clark, finished in tied 6th and we had five of the top sixteen plus ties (5/17) in total**.


*Danny Willett didn't play and David Lynn withdrew, allowing Gonzalo Fdez-Castano to be included.

**Similarly, two higher ranked players didn't play, bringing Fredrik Jacobson into the equation.

How to Spot Value Bets with Golf Predictor

The purpose of this article is to show just how easy it is to spot value bets using Golf Predictor. We provide an unbiased (i.e. true, based on their statistics) ranking of all golfers in the field for a particular tournament. Bookmakers, on the other hand, adjust their rankings in order to maximise profit for themselves (naturally!). This so-called "public opinion spread" means that, for example, they cut the odds for golfers they think will attract more bets. However, being more (or less) heavily backed does not mean a golfer is more (or less) likely to win/perform in a tournament.

You can therefore compare your bookies odds with our rankings to identify undervalued or overvalued golfers easily. For selected tournaments, this is done automatically on the site using the prices from various European bookies. Good and bad bets are colour coded in green and red on the Prediction Rankings (Odds) page for easy identification. On any given week, there will usually be discrepancies between the unbiased rankings for an event and those for any bookmaker. Some players will be ranked too high (overvalued) by the bookie and some will be consequently ranked too low (undervalued). Before the tournament starts, you should look for the latter near the top of the Golf Predictor rankings as these undervalued golfers are a good bet for at least a top ten finish.

Of course, with Golf Predictor, you can drill down to see all the golfer statistics, so you can make up your own mind whether your bookie has really got it wrong! You should also check the field rankings and some (or all) of the course/tournament/similar tournaments/season/last 5/similar weather/similar length course/same region/same season segment history data on Golf Predictor for the undervalued golfer to verify that he would be a good pick. The 'Compare Form' pages are an excellent way to compare various metrics (e.g. finishing position, round scores, cuts and finishing score) in the recent/historical/similar events for your selected golfers. Finally, you can even apply your own custom weightings to various metrics and rank the entire field accordingly. You can then compare the results to your bookie's list and find your own value bets!

As an example, Heath Slocum was ranked 9th by Golf Predictor for the 2010 McGladrey Classic based on his statistics, but was ranked tied 19th by a prominent bookie. This made him a good bet for at least a top ten finish in the tournament as he was significantly undervalued. I duly tweeted as much before the event and who went on to actually win it? Yes, you've guessed it, Heath Slocum! We won't get a winner like that every time, of course, but you will find value most weeks using the many statistics and features on Golf Predictor.

2010 - Week 43 Predictions Online

The predictions and statistics for this week, the Frys.com Open (US PGA Tour) and the Portugal Masters (European PGA Tour are now available on Golf Predictor. The fields for either event this week isn't great as the big names (particularly in the US) wind down for the season.

2010 - Week 42 Winners

Martin Kaymer (ranked 2nd by Golf Predictor) won the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, his third straight victory on the European PGA Tour. The German showed no sign of tiredness after the Ryder Cup (which he also won!) by overtaking last week's winner, John Parry. Our top ranked player, Lee Westwood, finished in tied 11th, thereby failing to get the top two finish needed to overtake Tiger Woods at the top of the world rankings. Most of the other Ryder Cup stars seemed to run out of gas, but overall we had seven of the top seventeen plus ties (7/20).

Heath Slocum (ranked 9th by Golf Predictor) won the inaugural McGladrey Classic on the US PGA Tour. The American could afford to bogey the last hole and still take his fourth career title. Our top ranked player, Matt Kuchar, finished down the field in tied 25th after his dash from the Ryder Cup. However, we had around ten of the top fifteen plus ties (10/24) in total*.


*A couple of the higher ranked players didn't play and one fairly high finisher was a late entrant. This makes direct comparisons more difficult as it brings Howell III (ranked 25th) and Kuchar (finished tied 25th) into the equation.

2010 - Week 42 Predictions Online

The predictions and statistics for this week, the McGladrey Classic (US PGA Tour) and the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship (European PGA Tour are now available on Golf Predictor. A lot of European Ryder Cup players are teeing it up in the celebrity fest in Scotland. Let's hope that they are not the worst for wear after their great delayed victory today! Zach Johnson and Matt Kuchar are the only US Ryder Cup stars playing in the new event on the US PGA Tour this week. That overspill into Monday won't help their chances of overcoming jet lag (and disappointment) by Thursday.

2010 - Week 41 Winner

While the top golfers were toiling in the rain in Wales, Bill Haas (ranked 5th by Golf Predictor) won the first event of the US PGA Tour Fall Series, the Viking Classic. It was the second win of the season for Haas Junior, having already captured the Bob Hope Classic. Maybe he should stick to the Classics!! Our top ranked player, Sean O'Hair, didn't make the third round "cut", but we had five of the top eleven plus ties (5/16).

Major Enhancements to Stats Pages

We are pleased to announce that the statistics pages on Golf Predictor have been upgraded. The main pages affected are the tournament page and the main prediction, season stats and results pages for each golfer. Some other pages, such as the tournament stats (rounds) page, results (player) and the golfer/course pages have also received minor upgrades. The main changes are:

1. The "details", "map it" and "chart" text links have been replaced with icon links.
2. Many of the stats tables have been upgraded to collapsible AJAX panels. This looks nicer and also allows you to hide stats on the page you might not be interested in. Simply click on a panel header to toggle collapsing/expanding it.
   
3. On the prediction page for each golfer, the data has been moved around into more logical collapsible panels. This also allowed the simplification of the labels and therefore the key at the bottom of the page.
4. The data on the season stats page for each golfer has been similarly re-organised.
5. If the golfer has no relevant statistics, the panel will just show a message to that effect, rather then a slew of blank statistics and chart links.
   

The graphic above shows a portion of the new prediction page (for Padraig Harrington in last week's Vivendi Cup) with the new panels and link icons. Every page has been tested in Firefox and IE, but bugs may have slipped under the radar. If you spot any, please let us know and we will fix them as soon as possible. Just another way to make Golf Predictor even better!


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