2011 - Week 11 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions and statistics for this week, the Honda Classic (US PGA Tour), are now available on Golf Predictor. There is no event on the European PGA Tour this week, so the first event of the Florida swing is the only inter-WGC tournament! That means a pretty good field has assembled for the event; seven of the top thirteen in the world are hoping to tune up here for next week.

2011 - Week 10 Winners

Luke Donald (ranked 11th by Golf Predictor) won the WGC - Accenture Match Play Championship on the European/US PGA Tour with a fantastic display of golf. Donald, who never played the eighteenth and made the final in a record low number of holes played (73). The Englishman defeated fellow European Martin Kaymer 3&2 in the 18 hole final. Both finalists have made significant moves in the world rankings, with Donald moving up to third, while Kaymer takes over at the pinnacle for the first time. Matt Kuchar defeated Bubba Watson 2&1 in the third place play-off.

Johnson Wagner (ranked 70th by Golf Predictor) won the Mayakoba Golf Classic at Riviera Maya-Cancun on the US PGA Tour. The 30 year old American edged his compatriot Spencer Levin with a par on the first play-off hole. Our top ranked player, Aaron Baddeley, failed to build on last week's win and missed the cut. However, we had thirteen of the top nineteen plus ties (13/28*).


*Maruyama didn't play, thus promoting Lehman into the top 28.

Enhancement to Golf Predictor

As part of the ongoing drive to make Golf Predictor as good as possible, some important system maintenance has been carried out over the last couple of days. While it looks the same, almost every page on the site has been updated to improve performance. We apologise for any inconvenience caused, as it was not possible to do without temporarily affecting the pages being worked on.

Every page has been thoroughly tested, but because this is a major update, some bugs may have slipped under the radar. If you spot any, please let us know and we will fix them as soon as possible.

New Winner World Ranking Stats & Charts

For the first time ever, Twitter has been responsible for new statistics and charts being added to Golf Predictor! Following a discussion about the average world ranking (WR) of winners so far this season on the US PGA Tour started by former Ryder Cup captain and major winner Paul Azinger (during which I rowed in with some statistics extracted from the Golf Predictor database!), I have added the capability for users to easily retrieve this information from the site. The world ranking for each tournament winner is now displayed on "View Options - Tourn Winners" page in the member section of Golf Predictor, along with the season average for the selected tour and four related charts. These four new bar charts are:

1. Winners with the highest WR for the US PGA Tour in a given season.
2. Winners with the highest WR for the European PGA Tour in a given season.
3. Winners with the lowest WR for the US PGA Tour in a given season.
4. Winners with the lowest WR for the European PGA Tour in a given season.

This new functionality brings the number of charts on the site to 245! The screen shot above shows the winners on the 2011 US PGA Tour season thus far. The new WR column is visible in the table as is the season average WR and the links to the two new charts for each tour just above it. Note that these new WR statistics are only available for events we have predicted (since some way into the 2008 season), while the average and charts are only available for 2009 (our first full season) onwards. These new charts and statistics display some interesting information, including:

1. The average WR of tournament winners is much higher than you would think. For the US PGA Tour, it has hovered around 100 for the two available seasons (2009 & 2010) in the database. The European PGA Tour average is a little lower, in the region of 120-150.
   
2. The top guys don't win that much, especially now that Tiger is off the boil!
3. Following on from point one, the European PGA Tour tends to have lower ranked winners than the US PGA Tour.
4. Despite the previous point, the highest ranked 2011 winner so far on the US PGA Tour is only 33 (Bubba Watson). The European equivalent is 3 (Martin Kaymer).
   
5. The lowest WR by far to win on the US PGA Tour since 2009 was Michael Bradley (816) in the 2009 Puerto Rico Open.
6. The lowest WR to win on the European PGA Tour since 2009 was then amateur Shane Lowry (unranked/outside the top 1000) in the 2009 Irish Open.

The first two points above in particular have importation ramifications for anyone trying to pick a winner for a professional golf tournament, so I'm glad I noticed Zinger's tweets on the subject! Everyone can view these new charts and statistics, so sign up today and see this information and much, much more on Golf Predictor, the premium professional golf statistics site.

2011 - Week 10 Predictions Update

The predictions for the Mayakoba Golf Classic at Riviera Maya-Cancun (US PGA Tour) have been re-run on Golf Predictor. This was done because of an inordinate number of withdrawals and late additions to the field. Tim Clark has been removed from the predictions for the WGC - Accenture Match Play Championship (European/US PGA Tour) as he is a late injury withdrawal.

2011 - Week 10 Predictions/Statistics Online

The predictions/statistics for this week, the WGC - Accenture Match Play Championship (European/US PGA Tour) and the Mayakoba Golf Classic at Riviera Maya-Cancun (US PGA Tour), are now available on Golf Predictor. Although Golf Predictor is designed primarily for stroke play events, like previous seasons, the Accenture Match Play Championship has been put through the prediction engine. All the big names are heading to Arizona for the match play event, so as usual it's a second string line up for the Mexican tournament.

2011 - Week 9 Winners

S.S.P. Chowrasia (ranked 105th by Golf Predictor) won the Avantha Masters on the European PGA Tour. The local favourite put the loss of his playing card last season behind him to capture his second tour title. Both have come on home soil in New Dehli, India, so that may have to be factored into future predictions! Our top ranked player, Thongchai Jaidee, finished in tied 22nd and we had eleven of the top twenty two plus ties (11/28). This was always going to be a difficult tournament to predict, with its relatively weak field which included a significant contingent of Asian and Indian Tour members.

Aaron Baddeley (ranked 54th by Golf Predictor) won the Northern Trust Open on the US PGA Tour. The Australian built on his sixth place at Pebble Beach last week to win his third event in the US and his first for four years. Our top ranked player, Phil Mickelson, finished in tied 34th and we had seven of the top twelve plus ties (7/20) in an event where a lot of the bigger names did not perform.

New Round Position Stats

Following on from the new Leader Position Charts recently added to Golf Predictor, the golfer results page for each stroke play tournament has been updated with useful new statistics. This page is accessible from several pages on the "View Options" menu, whenever you click on a golfer name in a results table. Using this page, you can now track the progress of any golfer through any completed tournament since the beginning of 2003.

The screen shot above shows Alvaro Quiros' results page for last week's Omega Dubai Desert Classic on the 2011 European PGA Tour. As can be seen in the new "Round Positions" panel, Quiros managed to win despite being a lowly tied 65th after round one. This new panel adds greatly to the results page for all golfers in stroke play events only. You must be a subscriber to view these new statistics, so sign up today and enjoy the full functionality of Golf Predictor, the premium professional golf statistics site.

New Leader Round Position Charts

Thanks to an excellent user suggestion, six more new charts have been added to Golf Predictor. This new functionality brings the number of charts on the site to 241! These new pie charts are:

1. Percentage of winners who were leaders/in the top 5/in the top 10/outside the top 10 after round 1 for the US PGA Tour in a given season.
2. Percentage of winners who were leaders/in the top 5/in the top 10/outside the top 10 after round 1 for the European PGA Tour in a given season.
3. Percentage of winners who were leaders/in the top 5/in the top 10/outside the top 10 after round 2 for the US PGA Tour in a given season.
4. Percentage of winners who were leaders/in the top 5/in the top 10/outside the top 10 after round 2 for the European PGA Tour in a given season.
5. Percentage of winners who were leaders/in the top 5/in the top 10/outside the top 10 after round 3 for the US PGA Tour in a given season.
6. Percentage of winners who were leaders/in the top 5/in the top 10/outside the top 10 after round 3 for the European PGA Tour in a given season.

These charts are accessible from the "View Options - Tourn Winners" page in the member section of Golf Predictor and our data goes back to the start of the 2003 season for both tours. The screen shot above shows the round one chart for winners on the 2010 US PGA Tour season. As usual, hovering over a segment shows additional information, as shown above for winners who led after round one. All positions include ties and 'Top Five' covers eventual winners who were in positions two to five after the round in question. Similarly, 'Top Ten' is eventual winners in positions six to ten in the round in question. Note that only stroke play events are used and the fourth round of five round events (i.e. The Bob Hope Classic) is ignored.

These new charts display very useful information for fantasy golfers and golf gamblers in particular, so thanks again to the user who offered the original suggestion, which was expanded upon. For example, looking at the 2011 season charts (covering completed events so far this season), there are some interesting observations:

1. The winner of all six events so far on the 2011 US PGA Tour has either led (1 or 16.7%) or been in the top five (5 or 84.3%) after round 2.
2. The winner of all six events so far on the 2011 US PGA Tour has either led (3 or 50%) or been in the top five (3 or 50%) after round 3.
3. It's bad to lead after round 1 on the 2011 European PGA Tour! No one so far has managed to hold on for victory after 8 events.
4. The round 3 leaders on the 2011 European PGA Tour have been better than their US counterparts at closing out the win. In the 8 events so far, 6 (75%) round 3 leaders have won and the remaining 2 (25%) winners were in the top five after round 3.

It will be interesting to see how these charts change over the season. I certainly will be using them for my own fantasy golf substitutions! However, only subscribers can view these new charts. So, sign up today and enjoy the full functionality of Golf Predictor, the premium professional golf statistics site.

2011 - Week 9 Predictions Online

The predictions for this week, the Avantha Masters (European PGA Tour) and the Northern Trust Open (US PGA Tour), are now available on Golf Predictor. Despite an increase in prize money over last year, the field in India isn't great in the week. Being situated after the final event of the lucrative desert swing and the week before the WGC - Accenture Match Play in Arizona doesn't help! The US PGA Tour event has a good line up though and should provide some great golf.

2011 - Week 8 Winners

Alvaro Quiros (ranked 5th by Golf Predictor) won the Omega Dubai Desert Classic on the European PGA Tour. The Spaniard put last week's disappointing finish behind him to capture his fifth title, despite carding a treble bogey in his final round. However, Quiros offset his blip on the 8th with an ace on the 11th to put him back on track to defeat all the big names in the field. Most of the said big names (Woods, McIlroy, Garcia and Westwood) finished very poorly to drop out of contention. Our top ranked player, Martin Kaymer, finished in tied 31st, but we had twelve of the top twenty plus ties (12/27).

D.A. Points (ranked 34th by Golf Predictor) won the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am on the US PGA Tour. The American secured his first win with the assistance of his amateur playing partner, Caddyshack star Bill Murray. The duo also won the Pro-Am for good measure, giving the actor his finest moment on the golf course. Our top ranked player, Phil Mickelson, finished in tied 9th, and in a good tournament for the bookies, we had four of the top fifteen plus ties (4/20) in total.

New Course Length Distribution Charts

Four more new charts have been added to Golf Predictor. This new functionality brings the number of charts on the site to 235! These new charts are:

1. Course Length Distribution for the US PGA Tour in a given season.
2. Course Length Distribution for the European PGA Tour in a given season.
3. Course Length Distribution for the US PGA Tour in the database.
4. Course Length Distribution for the European PGA Tour in the database.

These charts are accessible from the Member section of Golf Predictor. Charts 1 & 2 are viewable on the "View Options - Tourn. Stats" page, while charts 3 & 4 are viewable on the "View Options - Courses" page. A "Tour" column has also been added to the course table on the latter page. Our data goes back to the start of the 2003 season for both tours.

The screen shot above shows the length distribution for 49 courses used in the 2009 European PGA Tour season. The average length is displayed under the charts and, as usual, hovering over a bar shows additional information. The mathematically inclined will note the classic normal distribution of course lengths around the average!

Note that the exact yardages of most courses vary over time and that tournaments without a course in the current season are ignored (e.g. the 2011 European PGA Tour has three such events at the time of writing). Note also that for tournaments held on more than one course, we either use the average course length or the length of the course used in the final round.

Only subscribers can view these new charts. So, sign up today and enjoy the full functionality of Golf Predictor, the premium professional golf statistics site.

2011 - Week 8 Predictions Online

The predictions for this week, the Omega Dubai Desert Classic (European PGA Tour) and the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am (US PGA Tour), are now available on Golf Predictor. Tiger Woods makes his second appearance of the season, this time on the European PGA Tour in Dubai. I'm sure he'd hope to earn whatever wads of cash that might be getting for showing up by improving on his first outing of the year!

In the celebrity pro-am in California, there are an impressive 23 majors between the participants. However, that's only about two* more than the Dubai event, thanks mainly to the aforementioned Mr. Woods.


*Total after a quick count!

2011 - Week 7 Winners

Thomas Bjorn (ranked 34th by Golf Predictor) won the Commercialbank Qatar Masters pres. by Dolphin Energy on the European PGA Tour. The Dane won his eleventh title by four shots after his nearest challenger, Alvaro Quiros, fell away. In a good tournament for the bookies, our top ranked player, Lee Westwood, missed the cut and we had eight of the top nineteen plus ties (8/27).

Mark Wilson (ranked 26th by Golf Predictor) won the Waste Management Phoenix Open on the US PGA Tour. The American secured his second win in three starts this season with a birdie on the second extra hole of his play-off with Jason Dufner. Our top ranked player, Phil Mickelson, finished in tied 29th, but we had ten of the top twenty two plus ties (10/28) in total.

Colour Scheme Changed on Data Tables

All the tables on Golf Predictor that use the alternating green and white lines (almost all of the tables!) have been slightly updated. The green colour has been lightened for optimum display on a wider range of monitors. Note that you may have to refresh any affected pages to see the new colour. Just another way to make Golf Predictor slightly better!

2011 - Week 8 Predictions Delayed

The Golf Predictor predictions will be late this week, due to the late finish of the Waste Management Phoenix Open. Depending on when the statistics become available, it may be tomorrow before they can be generated. Apologies for any inconvenience caused, but this situation is out of my control.

Slight enhancement to 'Tournaments (Course)' Page

You can now see the course length on the pop-up text where you hover over the course name on the 'Tournaments (Course)' page on Golf Predictor. This page is accessed via the 'Tournaments' page on the 'View Options' menu. Previously, just the course location was displayed in the pop-up text. Just another way to make Golf Predictor slightly better!