Wednesday, 24 July 2013

'Round Performance Analysis' Added to Golf Predictor


Part of the Round 3 Performance Analysis page for the 2013 RBC Canadian Open field, showing the pop-up text for Luke Donald
Part of the Round  Performance Analysis page ahead of the 2013 RBC Canadian Open for Luke Donald, showing his performance in similar events depending on his position after round 3. There are similar panels for round 1 and 2 on this page.

 GP video tutorial on this new functionality

I am delighted to announce the addition of a new level of analysis to Golf Predictor. For the week of each tournament, you will now be able to see how golfers have finished in similar tournaments (regular/WGC/major/FedEx) in the previous five years when in certain positions after rounds one to three in those events. The positions analysed are:
  1. Leading after the round in question.
  2. Positions 2-5 after the round in question i.e. top 5, excluding leading.
  3. Positions 6-10 after the round in question i.e. top 10, excluding top 5. 
  4. Positions 11-20 after the round in question i.e. top 20, excluding top 10. 
  5. Positions 21-40 after the round in question i.e. top 40, excluding top 20.
  6. Outside the top 40 after the round in question.
This will help you make decisions about golfers depending on their positions after the same round(s) in the current tournament. I have called this new functionality "Round Performance Analysis" and it will make the task of picking fantasy golf substitutes or making in-play betting picks much easier. Three new options (one for each round) have been added to the Form menu in the Member section for accessing these new stats. Some notes on this new functionality:
  1. If there are no similar tournament records for the golfer, all tournaments in the previous five years will be used, if there are any.
  2. Only regular 72 hole stroke play events are analysed. However, any such events that are shortened (e.g. due to weather) are included in the analysis.
  3. If the golfer misses the second round cut in a similar tournament, that tournament is ignored for round three calculations as there is no round three score to process. However, such events are still displayed in the Results Analysed tournament list.
  4. The round performance information for a tournament will be available from when the predictions are generated until when the results for one of the tournaments that week are inputted into the database. This will usually be from Monday evening to Sunday evening (GMT) of the tournament week.
The first screenshot above show the round three performance analysis for the field for the 2013 RBC Canadian Open. It shows the average finishing position for each golfer in each of the above six categories after round three and the number of tournaments that were analysed in each category. Hovering over a golfer first name shows more information as shown above for Luke Donald. Clicking on a golfer name shows the complete round performance analysis (rounds one to three) for the golfer, plus a list of all the tournaments which were analysed. This is shown in the second screen shot above, also for Luke Donald. Similar to before, hovering over the tournament name or finishing position column displays more information, as shown above for his result for the 2013 Players Championship. You may also sort the rank columns (R1R-R3R) to see the tournament results sorted by the golfer's position after the round in question.

Looking at the second screenshot, it can be seen that, for example, Luke Donald does very well as a frontrunner after round three. In the eight similar tournaments in which he lead going into the final day, his average finish is an impressively low 2.25. Sorting the table on the R3R column will show the actual results were 3, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 7 & 2. His stats when leading after rounds one and two are on the same page and are similarly impressive, which tells us Donald is a hard man to beat after he take the lead. Hopefully, you will be able to spot much more similarly useful information using these new stats.

Eighteen new charts have also been added as part of this new round performance analysis functionality. These charts are available from the Round Performance pages for each round (see first screenshot above) and are comprised of the golfers with the best average finishing position in the above six categories for rounds one to three, that is the.:
  1. Golfers in field with best average finishing position when leading after the round in question (rounds 1-3).
  2. Golfers in field with best average finishing position when in positions 2-5 after the round in question (rounds 1-3).
  3. Golfers in field with best average finishing position when in positions 6-10 after the round in question (rounds 1-3).
  4. Golfers in field with best average finishing position when in positions 11-20 after the round in question (rounds 1-3).
  5. Golfers in field with best average finishing position when in positions 21-40 after the round in question (rounds 1-3).
  6. Golfers in field with best average finishing position when outside the top 40 after the round in question (rounds 1-3).
This brings the total number of charts on the site to 347. This new functionality is a terrific addition to the site and will greatly assist in picking golfers after an event has started. The new round performance analysis functionality is available to all users, although only for the golfers you are permitted to view (all golfers for subscribers, those ranked 11-25 for non-subscribers). However, non-subscribers will only be able to view one of the new charts (golfers in the field with best average finishing position when in positions 21-40 after round one). So, sign up today to get the most out of Golf Predictor, the premier European and US PGA Tour statistics site.

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