Predictions Updated with Non-finishing Players Round Data

Another ramification of the recent changes in policy for handling scores for non-finishers (see here and here) was that some statistics were rendered incorrect on golfer 'Prediction Data' pages. Originally Golf Predictor did not include the round scores for players who had withdrew or been disqualified from a tournament. However, since we included such scores, scoring averages, round counts and round averages became slightly incorrect for golfers who had not finished related tournaments (e.g. events earlier in the same season or in the same event in previous years).

Therefore, we have updated all tournament prediction records since Golf Predictor began to correct these slight issues. We have also added a round counter on the 'Prediction Data' page for each golfer to display the number of first rounds played in similar tournaments (a number less than or equal to twelve, the maximum amount of similar tournaments that we analyse for a golfer). These should be the final tweaks because of the policy change and ensures that Golf Predictor is even more accurate than ever before!

2009 - Week 31 Predictions

We have published the predictions for week 31, the AT&T National (US PGA Tour) and the Open de France Alstom (European PGA Tour). A good quality field has entered the US event, hosted as ever by the Tiger himself. The Open de France has always been one of the strongest events on the European PGA Tour so it to boasts a strong field, with six major winners amongst the competitors.

The list of pre-2004 champions in the Open de France Alstom (Golf Predictor uses the results from the previous 5 years) includes Philip Golding (2003), Malcolm MacKenzie (2002), Jose Maria Olazabal (2001), Colin Montgomerie (2000), Paul Broadhurst (1995), Miguel Angel Martin (1992) and Eduardo Romero (1991). There is no corresponding list for the AT&T National as it is only in its third year.

2009 - Week 30 Winners

Despite a blistering finish from Rafa Echenique, Nick Dougherty (ranked 17th by Golf Predictor) won the BMW International Open on the European PGA Tour. Echenique came home in a record equalling 27 (including an albatross from 243 yards out at the last), but had to settle for second as Dougherty safely negotiated the last three holes to win by a shot. Our top ranked player, Henrik Stenson, finished in a tie for 35th place and we had seven of the top nineteen plus ties (7/20).

On the US PGA Tour, nice guy Kenny Perry went some way to putting his Masters disappointment behind him with a three shot win at Travelers Championship. Perry (ranked 1st by Golf Predictor) finished strongly with a 63 (-7) for a record breaking 258 total (-22). In a good tournament for Golf Predictor, including forecasting the winner, we had six of the top eleven plus ties (6/13).

More Statistics for Non-finishing Players

Further to the recent post on the change in policy for handling scores for non-finishers, we have updated the rounds played and scoring average statistics for such golfers. Originally Golf Predictor did not include the round scores for players who had withdrew or been disqualified from a tournament. However, since we started including such scores, it became apparent that the rounds played and scoring average needed to be calculated for these golfers also.

In addition, these newly recorded rounds meant that the scoring averages for all players in tournaments with non-finishers (who played at least one round) were slightly inaccurate. Therefore, we have updated all tournament results since 2003 again to correct these slight issues.

Travelers Championship - Memorable Moments

Here are the memorable moments for this week's Travelers Championship (covered by Golf Predictor). These moments include another sudden death defeat for Greg Norman (plus a bounce back the following year), a victory by local boy J.J. Henry, repeat wins for Phil and a maiden triumph for Hunter Mahan after a tremendous approach in the play-off.

2009 - Week 30 Prediction Update (BMW International Open)

After his exploits in the US Open, Ross Fisher has withdrawn from the BMW International Open. Fisher was ranked third but we have now removed him from the predictions for this tournament on Golf Predictor and re-ranked the field. There has been no other change to the rankings.

The up to date predictions are now available on the site. Note that you may have to refresh/reload the page to see the change.

2009 - Week 30 Predictions

We have published the predictions for week 30, the Travelers Championship (US PGA Tour) and the BMW International Open (European PGA Tour). For the European event, some players have had to leg it across the Atlantic to Germany after the late finish to the US Open, so that might have to be factored in to your decisions. In the US, the players just had the short trip from Long Island, New York to Cromwell, Connecticut to contend with.

The list of pre-2004 champions in the Travelers Championship (Golf Predictor uses the results from the previous 5 years) includes Notah Begay III (2000), Brent Geiberger (1999), Olin Browne (1998) and Stewart Cink (1997). The corresponding list for the BMW International Open comprises of Colin Montgomerie (1999) and Marc Farry (1996).

2009 - Week 29 Winners

Lucas Glover (ranked 57th by Golf Predictor) took advantage of a meltdown by Ricky Barnes to win the protracted 109th US Open at Bethpage Black in New York. Co-leading with Barnes at the start of play today, a 73 was good enough for Glover to grab his first major as Barnes leaked shot after shot. In an exciting final day's play, both Phil Mickelson and David Duval had great chances to make fairytale endings. However, both finished poorly to leave Glover under no real pressure to secure the title on the eighteenth. Our top pick, Tiger Woods, never really recovered from a sloppy finish to his opening round but still managed to finish tied sixth. In a tournament heavily disrupted by the weather, we had four of the top ten plus ties (4/15).

On the European PGA Tour, Christian Nilsson (ranked 15th by Golf Predictor) comfortably closed out the lottery that is the weak fielded Saint Omer Open presented by Neuflize OBC with a blemish free 69 for a two shot victory. Our top ranked player, Robert Coles, finished poorly with an 80 to tie for 75th place and we had four of the top fifteen plus ties (4/22).

US Open Delayed

The final round of the US Open will not be completed until today (Monday), due to the heavy rain in New York which has played havoc with the scheduling.

We will of course enter the results into Golf Predictor as soon as they are available. This will also delay the publishing of our predictions for this week as the new world rankings will not be available at the usual time. The Monday finish will probably also result in some withdrawals from this week's tournaments, particularly the BMW International Open in Germany, which is a bit of a hike from New York! We will endeavour to produce the predictions as soon as possible.

2009 - Week 29 Prediction Update 2 (Saint Omer Open)

We have run the Golf Predictor prediction engine for the Saint Omer Open presented by Neuflize OBC (European PGA Tour) yet again due to the very late addition of who we thought might be a serious contender. As it turns out, Carlos Del Moral ends up ranked only at number 18, so there is no major change from the previous run.

The up to date predictions are now available on the site. Note that you may have to refresh/reload the page to see the new rankings.

2009 - Week 29 Prediction Update (Saint Omer Open)

We have run the Golf Predictor prediction engine for the Saint Omer Open presented by Neuflize OBC (European PGA Tour) again due to the late withdrawal of our top ranked golfer David Drysdale. This withdrawal means that there is no golfer from the world's top 200 competing in France this week.

The up to date predictions are now available on the site. Note that you may have to refresh/reload the page to see the new rankings.

2009 - Week 29 Predictions

We have published the predictions for week 29, the US Open (US/European PGA Tour) and the Saint Omer Open presented by Neuflize OBC (European PGA Tour). All eyes will be on the brutal Bethpage Black, where Tiger Woods will try to do on two legs what he achieved last year on one - win! All the big names in golf will be trying to stop him though, which leaves a pretty weak field for the Saint Omer Open in France (highest ranked player there is 196th in the world).

The list of pre-2004 champions in the US Open (Golf Predictor uses the results from the previous 5 years) includes Jim Furyk (2003), Tiger Woods (2002 & 2000), Retief Goosen (2001) and Ernie Els (1997 & 1994). The corresponding list for the Saint Omer Open comprises only of Sébastien Delagrange (2001).

2009 - Week 28 Winner

Brian Gay (ranked 14th by Golf Predictor) won his second US PGA Tour title of the season at the St. Jude Classic in Memphis. Despite averaging only 265.8 yards off the tee (76th), Gay comfortably completed his wire to wire victory with the help of some good putting (first in putts per GIR, 1.510). There's the old "drive for show and putt for dough" again! It was always going to be difficult for our top ranked player, Phil Mickelson, on his emotional comeback to the tour. He slipped down the leaderboard with a 75 (+5) on Sunday to finish in tied 59th. Other big names such as Harrington, Garcia, Stenson, Leonard and Ames all failed to perform and missed the cut. Harrington and Garcia in particular hopefully said a few prayers to St. Jude, the patron saint of hopeless causes, while at the tournament!! Overall, we had six of the top fourteen plus ties (6/18).

There was no tournament on the European PGA Tour last week.

The Strongest Field/Tour in Golf

Following on from the the new field strength charts in Golf Predictor, we can test two common perceptions in golf:

1. The US PGA Players Championship has the best field in golf.
   
2. The US PGA Tour has stronger fields than the European PGA Tour.
   

The first perception is often bandied about, usually by people who believe that the Players Championship should be a major. The problem is that it just is not true! As I noted on Twitter some time ago, the Players Championship is some way off having the best field and now you can see for yourself on Golf Predictor! The screenshot above shows the US PGA Tour events in the 2009 season so far (up to the Memorial Tournament) with the lowest average world ranking*. As can be seen, the Players Championship has 'only' the fourth best field, behind the WGC events and the season opening Mercedes-Benz Championship. Granted, these events all have limited fields to some extent, but the numbers do not lie. Last year's chart (which doesn't cover the entire season, as we only started predicting around April) shows the Players Championship in sixth place, behind the FedEx Cup play-off events as well as the WGC events in field strength. So if you want to use field strength as a metric, you should be pushing for the WGC events to become majors!

The second perception is that the US PGA Tour has superior fields to the European PGA Tour. While, as a proud European myself, I have tried to defend my 'local' tour (insofar as a tour that sprawls across four continents can be local!), I'm afraid that the numbers again do not lie. Excluding events that are co-sanctioned by both tours, here are the average world rankings* of the entrants to all events since our predictions began last year:

US PGA Tour: 298.6
European PGA Tour: 461.0
Overall (including co-sanctioned events): 374.9

From this data, it is clear that the US PGA Tour events do indeed have significantly better quality fields than European PGA Tour events. While a small amount of this large gap can be attributed to the elite fields for the Mercedes-Benz Championship, FedEx Cup play-offs and even the The Players Championship, it is still a significant difference (without these events, US PGA Tour entrant average world ranking rises to just 318.7). It was hoped that the Race to Dubai would raise the standard in Europe, but that does not seem to have happened to any great degree thus far. I wonder does the European PGA Tour worry about this? If not, I would humbly suggest that perhaps they should start focussing on quality rather than quantity.


*Since Golf Predictor only tracks the world top 1000 golfers, any golfer outside this list is assigned a default world ranking of 1050.

New 'Best/Worst Fields' Charts

Following on from the the new world ranking statistics in Golf Predictor, we are now able to compare the field strengths* of all tournaments that we have predicted (all tournaments since approximately April 2008) by season. To that end, we have created 4 new charts:

1. US PGA Tour events in a given season with the best (strongest) fields.
2. European PGA Tour events in a given season with the best (strongest) fields.
3. US PGA Tour events in a given season with the worst (weakest) fields.
4. European Tour events in a given season with the worst (weakest) fields.

These new chats are available on the 'Tournament Statistics' page ('View Options' menu) for seasons from 2008 on. The screenshot above shows the strongest fields on the 2009 European Tour up to The Celtic Manor Wales Open. As usual, hover over a bar to display more information, as shown for the Dubai Desert Classic.

This new functionality brings the total number of available charts in Golf Predictor to an impressive 225! However, only subscribers can view these new charts, so sign up today and reap the full benefits of Golf Predictor, the premium professional golf statistics site.


*Since Golf Predictor only tracks the world top 1000 golfers, any golfer outside this list is assigned a default world ranking of 1050.

Field Strength Enhancement to Tournament Page

In addition to the Field Strength Chart page, we have also added the same field strength statistics to the Tournament page on Golf Predictor (available from the 'View Options\Tournaments' menu option, among other places). A new table on this page displays the average world ranking for the field, the standard deviation of the field world rankings, the rank of the highest ranked golfer in the field and the rank of the lowest ranked golfer in the field. Since Golf Predictor only tracks the world top 1000 golfers, any golfer outside this list is assigned a default world ranking of 1050. We have also included a link to the field strength chart for all relevant tournaments.

The screenshot above shows the tournament page for the 2009 Memorial Tournament with the new table at the bottom. Note that field strength statistics are only available for tournaments we have predicted. This is because we only store world ranking information for predicted events (all tournaments since approximately April 2008). We hope this also makes Golf Predictor a little better!

Enhancement to Field Strength Chart Page

We have enhanced the Field Strength Chart page on Golf Predictor. This page is accessible from the 'Stats Analysis' menu ('Tourn Predictions' option, Member section). It now displays the average world ranking for the field, the standard deviation of the field world rankings, the rank of the highest ranked golfer in the field and the rank of the lowest ranked golfer in the field. Since Golf Predictor only tracks the world top 1000 golfers, any golfer outside this list is assigned a default world ranking of 1050. Because of this, we have changed the chart ranges to show how many such golfers are in the tournament field.

The screenshot above shows the new field strength chart page for the 2009 Memorial Tournament. Jack's event had a pretty high quality field, but it still has an average world ranking of almost 200. The high tournament average world rankings are an interesting finding of this new feature, which makes Golf Predictor even better!

New 'Actual Position/GP Ranking' Comparison Chart added to Golf Predictor

After adding the GP Ranking Chart to Golf Predictor the other day, we thought it would be cool if you could visually compare the predicted finishing positions (GP Rank) with the actual finishing position in all completed tournaments for any golfer in any season since predictions began (2008). Both these charts were available separately on the 'Prediction Data' page for each participating golfer in an event. However, to make it more convenient to make comparisons, we have combined them into a single multi-line chart. This is the first 'two in one' chart on Golf Predictor but we're sure it won't be the last!

This new chart is available on the 'Prediction Data' page for each golfer in each tournament ("Stats Analysis" menu, Member section - most links). There is a new row in the 'General/Season Statistics' box with the calculated average difference and standard deviation of the differences (available to subscribers only). The default chart shows the comparisons for the season up to the current tournament and there are links to any previous seasons, which show all comparisons for that season. The chart page also shows the average and standard deviation information.

As stated in a previous post, a golfer's GP ranking* varies over a season depending on his own statistics and the relative strength of the field. The screenshot above shows the Actual Result/GP Ranking comparison chart for Justin Leonard ahead of the 2009 St. Jude Classic. You can note on the site how his ranking fluctuates with the prestige of the event (and hence the quality of the field) and his previous results. Like all other charts, hovering over a point shows more information, as shown above for the week of The Masters (Actual Result).

This brings the total number of charts on Golf Predictor to 221. This new chart only available to subscribers, so sign up today and reap the full benefits of Golf Predictor, the premium professional golf statistics site.


*Note that the GP ranking algorithm evolves with time. It is often tweaked to improve performance or fix slight flaws.

St. Jude Classic pres. by FedEx - Memorable Moments

Here are the memorable moments for this week's St. Jude Classic pres. by FedEx (covered by Golf Predictor). These moments include Al Geiberger's humorous recollection of his historic 59 in 1977, David Toms' back to back victories in 2003/04 and aggressive play-off strategy from an impressively bespectacled Tom Kite!

New 'GP Ranking' Chart Added to Golf Predictor

We have added a new 'GP Ranking' chart to Golf Predictor. This enables you to see the Golf Predictor rankings (predicted finishing positions) for any golfer in any season since predictions began (2008). This new chart is available on the "Prediction Data" page for each golfer in each tournament ("Stats Analysis" menu, Member section - most links). The default chart shows all the GP Rankings for the season up to the current tournament and there are links to any previous seasons, which show all rankings for that season.

A golfer's GP ranking* varies over a season depending on his own stats and the relative strength of the field. The screenshot above shows the GP Ranking chart for Justin Leonard ahead of the 2009 St. Jude Classic. The peaks represent events with strong fields and/or events in which he has a relatively poor record & vice versa for the troughs. Like all other charts, hovering over a point shows more information, as shown above for the week of the Northern Trust Open.

This brings the total number of charts on Golf Predictor to 220. This new chart is available to all members, although non-subscribers will only be able to see it for golfers ranked 11-25 in any tournament.


*Note that the GP ranking algorithm evolves with time. It is often tweaked to improve performance or fix slight flaws.

2009 - Week 28 Prediction

We have published the prediction for week 28, the recently re-sponsored St. Jude Classic pres. by FedEx (US PGA Tour). Being strategically placed a week before the US Open, the St Jude has a pretty strong line up, including the welcome return to action of Phil Mickelson. There is no event on the European PGA Tour this week.

The list of pre-2004 champions in the St Jude Classic (Golf Predictor uses the results from the previous 5 years) includes David Toms (2003), Len Mattiace (2002), Bob Estes (2001), Notah Begay III (2000) and Ted Tryba (1999). Len Mattiace is only an alternate for this event, which seems a little harsh on a former winner!

2009 - Week 27 Winners

Jeppe Huldahl (ranked 114th by Golf Predictor) has become the third rank outsider to win in the last four weeks on the European PGA Tour. The 26 year old Dane secured The Celtic Manor Wales Open title with a nerveless 67. That was a fantastic display by the 377th ranked golfer in the world considering he had never even finished in top ten on tour before. Huldahl also becomes the ninth first time winner on the European PGA Tour this year. In a weather affected tournament, many of whatever 'big' names there were just didn't perform. Our top ranked player, Ross Fisher, finished in tied 31st place and we had three of the top seventeen plus ties (3/20).

On the US PGA Tour, Tiger Woods (ranked 1st by Golf Predictor) won the Memorial Tournament for the fourth time with a typical last day charge. Trailing by 4 overnight, Woods closed with an imperious 65 (-7) to win his 67th US PGA Tour title by a shot. His round included a birdie-birdie finish with a tap in at the last following a majestic 6-iron approach. Ominously for his opponents in the upcoming US Open, Woods hit every fairway today and was second in that stat for the week. In total, we had eight of the top fourteen plus ties (8/22).

Slight Enhancement to Display Pages

We have added links to the golfer page on several pages on Golf Predictor. Similar to the tournament and course links already available, you can now link directly to a golfer's page from his tournament prediction page, his season statistics page and his results page for a particular tournament. This new link is located directly to the right of the golfer name and national flag on these pages.

The golfer page shows his overall statistics since 2003 and all his results in that time. This should make Golf Predictor even easier to navigate!

New 'Non-Finishers' Charts added to Golf Predictor

We are pleased to announce the addition of three 'Non-Finishers' charts to Golf Predictor. This enables you to see who have failed to finish the most tournaments in a completed season on the US PGA Tour, the European PGA Tour and both tours combined and includes withdrawals, disqualifications and non starts. These new charts are available on the "Season Stats" page ("Stats Analysis" menu, Member section).

The screenshot above shows the chart for the 2007 US PGA Tour season. As can be seen above, John Daly led the way in non-finishes with 6 from 27 events. Interestingly, John also topped the list in 2003. Due to the relatively low number of non-finishes, it is not really feasible to produce similar charts for shorter periods, e.g. last 12 similar events).

This brings the total number of charts on Golf Predictor to 219. As with most existing ones, only subscribers can view these new charts. So, sign up today and reap the full benefits of Golf Predictor, the premium professional golf statistics site.

Tiger and Jack at the Memorial Skins Game

Speaking of Tiger and Jack, here are some brief highlights of the Memorial Skins Game (not covered by Golf Predictor!), which featured the two legends. Looks like a fun day was had by all.

Who Would Win More Majors - Jack or Tiger?

An interesting ESPN discussion on whether Jack Nicklaus or Tiger Woods would win more majors if both were playing in their prime at the same time over a ten year period or so. We here at Golf Predictor would love to see that!

The Memorial Tournament - Memorable Moments

Here are the memorable moments for this week's Memorial Tournament (covered by Golf Predictor). These moments include a youthful Kenny Perry victory, a great bunker shot from Paul Azinger and Tiger's three consecutive titles The video also shows the respect the players have for the Golden Bear, which is great to see.

2009 - Week 27 Prediction Update (Celtic Manor Wales Open)

We have run the Golf Predictor prediction engine for The Celtic Manor Wales Open again due to several significant late withdrawals. These withdrawals included our top ranked golfer Robert Karlsson and they significantly reduce the competitiveness of the event.

The up to date predictions are now available on the site. Note that you may have to refresh/reload the page to see the new rankings.

Russian Open Cancelled

The Russian Open has become the fourth event to be dropped from the European PGA Tour schedule this year. Following the earlier loss of the British Masters, the Indian Masters and the English Open, the sprawling tour is in danger of being reduced to a single continent/year*!!! In this case, the main sponsor, a Russian real estate company, had to pull out due to the difficult economic climate. The organisers hope to have the event back on the calendar next year.

We here at Golf Predictor wish them the best of luck in their endeavours. This must have been known to the European PGA Tour for quite some time as the Russian Open never featured on the 2009 schedule, to the best of my knowledge. Interestingly, the European PGA Tour don't seem to announce event cancellations on their web site. I wonder why?!


*I know - it's moving to a single calendar year next year anyway.

2009 - Week 27 Predictions

We have published the predictions for week 27, The Celtic Manor Wales Open (European PGA Tour) and the Memorial Tournament (US PGA Tour). Jack's tournament has its usual strong field while the Ryder Cup captains are sizing up the battlefield in Wales this week!

The list of pre-2004 champions in the Memorial Tournament (Golf Predictor uses the results from the previous 5 years) includes Kenny Perry (2003 & 1991), Jim Furyk (2002), Tiger Woods (2001, 2000 & 1999), Vijay Singh (1997) and Tom Lehman (1994). The corresponding list for The Celtic Manor Wales Open is Paul Lawrie (2002) and Paul McGinley (2001).